Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

An analytical framework for strategic delta planning: negotiating consent for long-term sustainable delta development

Sectoral planning on water, agriculture and urban development has not been able to prevent increased flood risks and environmental degradation in many deltas. Governments conceive strategic delta planning as a promising planning approach and develop strategic delta plans. Such plans are linked to actions and means for implementation in the short-term, in line with long-term strategic choices. This paper introduces an analytical framework that focuses on the role of actors, innovative solutions and participatory planning tools in negotiating consent for the strategic choices in a delta plan and its implementation. Cases of Bangladesh, the Netherlands and Vietnam are discussed as a plausibility probe to explore the framework's potential. The probe reveals that the framework is promising to explain the process and outcomes of strategic delta planning in urbanizing deltas. The paper ends with an initial research agenda to stimulate research and discussion on this new delta planning approach.     

Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities for marine conservation

Incentivized debt conversion is a financing mechanism that can assist countries with a heavy debt burden to bolster their long-term domestic investment in nature conservation. The Nature Conservancy, an international conservation-based nongovernmental organization, is adapting debt conversions to support marine conservation efforts by small island developing states and coastal countries. Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities according to their potential return on investment can increase the impact and effectiveness of this finance mechanism. We developed guidance on how to do so with a decision-support approach that relies on a novel threat-based adaptation of cost-effectiveness analysis. We constructed scenarios by varying parameters of the approach, including enabling conditions, expected benefits, and threat classifications. Incorporating both abatable and unabatable threats affected priorities across planning scenarios. Similarly, differences in scenario construction resulted in unique solution sets for top priorities. We show how environmental organizations, private entities, and investment banks can adopt structured prioritization frameworks for making decisions about conservation finance investments, such as debt conversions. Our guidance can accommodate a suite of social, ecological, and economic considerations, making the approach broadly applicable to other conservation finance mechanisms or investment strategies that seek to establish a transparent process for return-on-investment decision-making.     

资本资产定价模型在工程地震保险费率厘定中的应用

作为国际金融市场的重要组成部分,保险市场在当下的全球经济复苏中发挥着重要作用。保险是地震灾害危机处理的一种重要方式。现有的工程地震保费厘定通常只着力于纯保费,对风险附加费的考量往往依经验,从而导致保费中无法体现对风险的补偿,成为工程地震险发展的瓶颈。本文通过将金融市场中的资本资产定价模型(CAPM)引入工程地震险的定价分析,从资本市场的角度探讨该模型在工程地震险定价中的应用,弥补了传统工程地震险保费厘定方法的固有缺陷,使得保费计算更为科学合理。最后,应用于一具体工程实例,验证了该模型的可行性和有效性。     

A theory of chemicals regulation and testing

Risk management of chemicals requires information about their adverse effects such as toxicity and persistence, for example. Testing of chemicals allows for improving the information base for regulatory decision‐making on chemicals' production and use. Testing a large number of chemicals with limited time and resources forces a prioritization of chemicals. This paper proposes a decision model that provides a ranking of chemicals according to “urgency to test”. The model adopts a value‐of‐information approach describing the expected welfare gains from regulatory actions that respond to test information. We determine the value‐of‐information of tests revealing chemicals' levels of toxicity and persistence. We compare our findings to the prioritization of chemicals in the new European Chemicals Regulation “REACH”, where several tens of thousands of chemicals are to be tested in order to fill existing information gaps and to implement more effective risk management. We find that the main lines of chemicals' prioritization under REACH receive backing from our decision model. However, prioritization for testing can be further improved by accounting for testing costs and the sensitivity of regulatory action with respect to the test information.     

对中国“新三大地带”旅游业发展方向分析——基于灰色局势决策理论

中国区域经济受海洋和国际市场影响较大,距海岸线远近反映与世界市场距离远近和交通的便利程度,由此决定中国区域经济发展水平由东向西逐步递减的基本趋势。依据2008年《中国旅游统计年鉴》及2007年各省(区、市)统计公报,采用灰色局势决策方法对我国宏观区域经济"新三大地带"旅游业发展优势进行局势决策分析,确定发展方向,以期为"新三大地带"旅游业发展和生产力布局提供一定的科学依据。     

燃煤价格对电厂盈亏影响的数据模型研究

深入分析火力发电厂运行成本的影响因子,包括运行时间、燃料价格、折旧和摊销、销售税金附加等.针对财务不确定性,基于年运行时间的BEp指标模型,剖析影响盈亏平衡的数学和财务原理,着重推导并建立基于燃煤价格变动的BEP指标模型,阐述燃煤价格向上浮动的极限值.组合使用两个BEp指标模型,形象表示指标图形的几何意义,为项目投资决策提供必要的依据,满足当前“厂网分营,竞价上网”的发展趋势.     

造纸工业碱回收锅炉电除尘器设计要点

针对当前碱回收锅炉除尘器的除尘效率不能满足排放要求的情况,分析了目前造纸厂电除尘设备运行中出现的主要问题,提出了一些设计观点和相关建议。     

黄土高原小流域水土保持决策系统研究

以陕西省米脂县泉家沟流域为例,在黄土高原小流域水土保持实用技术的基础上,应用USLE修正式对梁峁边线以上梁峁坡地进行了水土保持技术决策;并在PCARCINFO系统支持下,设计了决策系统。     

危险点分析预控理论在锅炉设备中的应用

危险点分析预控理论,是电力职工从反事故的实践中摸索出来的新方法.将其应用于火力发电厂的安全工作中,使电厂工作人员通过分析危险而认识危险.分别对锅炉运行中的锅炉制粉系统和锅炉检修中的焊接作业进行危险点分析,提出了控制措施.