Subpopulation Triage: How to Allocate Conservation Effort among Populations

Abstract:  Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers ( Panthera tigris sumatrae ) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes ( Vulpes macrotis mutica ). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species.     

危险废物管理区域决策支持系统的研究与开发

在系统分析危险废物管理系统和环境信息系统发展现状与趋势的基础上,讨论了中国危险废物管理区域决策支持系统的设计原则并进行了系统分析与设计。研究采用将系统分化为子系统的设计方法,可以更方便的增加信息,增加功能,保证系统的可持续发展性。该区域决策支持系统的设计方法和结构框架对其他环境信息系统开发与设计具有借鉴意义。     

提高生物法分离制革污泥中铬分离效率的研究

在已确定污泥驯化最佳条件的基础上,通过改变滤材、液固分离条件,添加营养物质继续降低pH等方法,进行提高生物沥滤法分离制革污泥中铬的分离效率的研究。同时考察化学沥滤法（1∶1硫酸）在相同条件下的分离效率。试验结果表明：用相应pH值酸液（1∶1硫酸配制）淋洗,淋洗+闷洗和抽真空＋酸液淋洗等过滤方式可提高铬的分离效率。生物沥滤中当pH值下降至1.8时,分离效率即可达到94.65%,与直接用蒸馏水淋洗相比要高得多。化学沥滤中当pH值下降到1时,分离效果可达96.7%,沥滤污泥中剩余铬含量可达到制革污泥农用标准。     

Lessons for PPGIS from the application of a decision-support tool in the Nova Forest Alliance of Nova Scotia, Canada

The effectiveness of a decision-support tool created to identify protected-area potential within the Nova Forest Alliance (NFA) of Nova Scotia, Canada is assessed from the perspective of a public participatory geographic information system (PPGIS) approach. The application sought to create an integrated GIS-based decision-support tool for community-focused communication and conservation assessment among NFA partners (including private woodland owners, government agencies, forest companies, and non-government organizations) and potential application within other model forests in Canada. The application illustrated that the GIS-based tool, once set up and populated with the necessary data, was able to generate effective visual alternatives to support decision making within the NFA community and elsewhere. However, from a PPGIS perspective, the application faced challenges that influenced the efficacy of its implementation: (1) limitations arose around data quality, use and sharing policies; (2) although opportunities for participation by the NFA partnership were initiated, these proved insufficient to achieve adequate engagement, buy in and support for the process and outcomes; and (3) the expert-grounded GIS-based tool requires a greater degree of expertise than may currently be present in the community. These challenges limit its ongoing use in the NFA and its potential utility in other model forests. For PPGIS-decision-support applications to be effective in the NFA and elsewhere, it is suggested that the following conditions be met: (1) implementation of geographically based data policies to allow for greater data accessibility, specifically with fewer bureaucratic and private sector barriers; (2) engagement of community partners in the initial project design, goal-setting and subsequent stages, even if this requires extensions to anticipated timelines; and (3) development of effective participatory technical systems that meet the needs of participants without being so complex as to constitute a barrier to their use.     

游客对西安市“农家乐”旅游决策影响因素的因子分析——以西安市长安区“农家乐”为例

了解＂农家乐＂旅游者出游的影响因素对＂农家乐＂旅游的健康蓬勃发展具有重大影响。以西安市长安区＂农家乐＂为例实证研究发现,农家生活氛围、农家娱购条件、可进入性和农村特色是＂农家乐＂旅游者旅游决策的重要影响因素。通过创造宁静和谐的农家生活氛围、举行富有参与性的农家娱购活动、完善旅游基础配套设施和提供具有农村突出特色的农家美食来提高＂农家乐＂旅游的吸引力,研究结果对今后＂农家乐＂旅游市场发展具有科学指导意义。     

Prioritizing Agricultural Lands for Conservation Buffer Placement Using Multiple Criteria1

Qiu, Zeyuan, 2010. Prioritizing Agricultural Lands for Conservation Buffer Placement Using Multiple Criteria. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00466.x Abstract: Although conservation buffers are multifunctional, the current conservation buffer planning strategies tend to use a single criterion, most frequently a hydrological or soil condition indicator, to guide conservation buffer placement. This study presents a watershed planning approach that prioritizes agricultural lands for conservation buffers based on multiple selection criteria and applies the approach to Raritan Basin in central New Jersey. The multiple selection criteria include soil erodibility, hydrological sensitivity, wildlife habitat, and impervious surface rate. These criteria capture the conservation buffers’ benefits in reducing soil erosion, controlling runoff generation, enhancing wildlife habitat, and mitigating stormwater impacts, respectively. An expert panel was used to identify and define the section criteria, review the measured values of those criteria, and develop the classification scales that assign the class score to each criterion. The prioritization is based on the summation of the criteria class scores. About one-third of agricultural lands are prioritized for conservation buffers in Raritan Basin. The total program cost of converting those prioritized agricultural lands to conservation buffers in Raritan Basin is estimated to be between $54.8 and 102.9 million depending on the composition of installed conservation buffer practices.     

基于动态信任网络的突发事件模型库系统的研究

根据突发事件应急决策的需求,本文结合模型网络法和基于信任筛选器的模型组合方法,提出了动态信任网络的模型组合方法,实现了根据不同的突发事件和不同环境选择适合的模型进行模型组合。在运用动态信任网络模型组合方法的基础上,本文应用Agent技术提出了一种智能化较高的突发事件模型库,不仅增强了模型库的适应性和模型库的自学习功能,而且还可以对耦合灾害和复杂事件链的应急处置提供良好的模型决策支持功能。     

多风机多级机站通风系统优化的模糊群体决策法

矿井通风系统是一个复杂的非线性系统,具有随机性、模糊性和不确定性特征。为了实现矿井通风的系统安全,对系统的安全性进行了定性、定量的预测分析和安全评价。按目标分层,用分层模糊优选理论对矿井通风系统设计方案进行优选,分层时允许评价因素重叠,从而便于确定目标与评价因素的权重。对矿井通风系统建立了多个设计方案的评判指标体系,并应用模糊群体决策确定矿井通风系统方案评判指标的权值,研究成果已应用于中条山有色金属公司胡家峪铜矿通风系统优化研究中,获得了满意的结果。     

技术经济分析在制定污染物排放标准和治理方案中的应用

文章介绍了在环境工程中运用技术经济学的方法和内容,对环境工程项目的技术可行性和经济合理性进行综合评价,从而使环境工程投资决策建立在科学分析的基础上。