Comments on and implications of a steady-state in coastal marine ecosystems

Coastal ecosystems can be thought of as being established by a number of physico-geochemical drivers, e.g. geochemistry and bathymetry of the basins, climate, tidal and freshwater flows, natural and anthropogenic inputs of nutrients and toxins, all of which exert an influence on the resulting communities of organisms. Depending on the interactions among the major drivers, ecosystems may occur on both large and small scales and be basin-wide or within basins. For individual and separate ecosystems to exist with some permanence in time, e.g. reach a steady-state, they also have to be ‘defended’. Defences are mechanisms that counter changes to maintain the status quo. We argue, and present evidence to support the notion, that the defence mechanisms are inextricably tied to primary production and the biogeochemical cycling of organic matter and provide buffers that mitigate potentially adverse impacts by trace toxins. Colloid pumping, production of complexing ligands and sulfide formation are some of the mechanisms that control trace substances. Current methods for assessing ecosystems do not address the issue of steady-state, nor do they take account of defence activities, e.g. buffering. Therefore, they cannot assess the ‘robustness’ of ecosystems or their ability to resist change, for good or bad. Also, defence mechanisms may, for a time, mask future potentially serious impacts, suggesting that monitoring efforts with limited budgets should consider the measurement of the inputs into ecosystems as well as the immediate or short-term result of the inputs.     

Prevalence-adjusted optimisation of fuzzy models for species distribution

Most performance criteria which have been applied to train ecological models focus on the accuracy of the model predictions. However, these criteria depend on the prevalence of the training set and often do not take into account ecological issues such as the distinction between omission and commission errors. Moreover, a previous study indicated that model training based on different performance criteria results in different optimised models. Therefore, model developers should train models based on different performance criteria and select the most appropriate model depending on the modelling objective. This paper presents a new approach to train fuzzy models based on an adjustable performance criterion, called the adjusted average deviation (aAD). This criterion was applied to develop a species distribution model for spawning grayling in the Aare River near Thun, Switzerland. To analyse the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, it was compared to model training based on other performance criteria. The results suggest that model training based on accuracy-based performance criteria may produce unrealistic models at extreme prevalences of the training set, whereas the aAD allows for the identification of more accurate and more reliable models. Moreover, the adjustable parameter in this criterion enables modellers to situate the optimised models in the search space and thus provides an indication of the ecological model relevance. Consequently, it may support modellers and river managers in the decision making process by improving model reliability and insight into the modelling process. Due to the universality and the flexibility of the approach, it could be applied to any other ecosystem or species, and may therefore be valuable to ecological modelling and ecosystem management in general.     

岷江上游高山森林溪流非木质残体现存量与碳储量及其分配特征

森林溪流非木质残体的特征直接关系到流域源头水质环境以及森林生态系统碳及养分等物质的输出格局.为了解岷江上游水源源头高山森林生态系统溪流非木质残体的储量特征,于2013 年8 月高山森林溪流水量最大的季节,在研究区域海拔3 600 m 典型高山森林范围内,沿主河道两岸调查每条森林溪流的非木质残体储量,共找到18 条森林溪流汇入主河道,根据实地采样的可操作性和典型性,选择其中12 条溪流详细调查非木质残体储量,每条森林溪流从尽头到源头每隔10 m 设置一个长度为1 m,溪流实际宽度的样方（源头作为最后一个样方）.将样方内所有非木质残体全部采集,低温保存,迅速带回实验室,分别按照树皮、树叶和直径小于1 cm 树枝分离,65 ℃烘干至恒重,测定各组分现存量.然后,将样品粉碎过筛,采用重铬酸钾氧化法测定凋落物有机碳含量,以不同组分现存量与其碳含量计算各组分的碳储量.结果表明：（1）该区域森林溪流非木质残体总现存量和总碳储量分别为657.25 kg 和262.96 kg,单位面积现存量和碳储量为439.70 g·m^-2 和175.92g·m^-2;（2）各溪流中直径小于1 cm 树枝占非木质残体总现存量和总碳储量的69.76%和73.41%,其次为树叶,树皮比例最小且不足10%;（3）尽管溪流长度、面积和流量与非木质残体各组分单位面积现存量和碳储量均无显著相关关系,但显著影响溪流非木质残体总现存量和总碳储量及其在各组分的分配比例;（4）相对于树皮,凋落树叶现存量和碳储量所占比例在流量较小溪流中相对较大.这些结果为深入认识高山森林流域水环境及其在森林生态系统中的重要作用提供新的思路和一定的科学依据.     

青海省1998—2012年草地生态系统服务功能价值评估

由于人类活动对草地生态系统的干扰,草地退化加剧,科学评估草地生态系统服务功能的价值对于草地保护与管理决策具有重要意义。论文通过整合青海省多源、多尺度、多过程的生态环境数据,结合大规模的野外调查数据,构建各类专项和综合数据库,以千年生态评估生态系统服务分类系统和Costanza等的分类方法为基础,结合青海省生态系统特征及生态地位,选取了青海省生态系统服务指标评估体系。开发定量核算青海省生态系统服务功能及其价值的数据-模型融合平台,对青海省1998—2012年的草地生态系统固碳释氧、水文调节、土壤保持、生物多样性等16种生态系统服务功能价值进行了全面的评估,成功实现了草地生态系统服务价值评估的动态化、精细化和智能化。结果表明：1998—2012年草地生态系统服务功能总价值在2 349.97~3 374.49亿元之间,均值为2 935.63亿元,是青海省2012年全省GDP的1.55倍,平均每公顷达92.87万元。最后,以此为基础,提出青海省草地生态系统适应性管理策略,为青海省生态立省战略提供决策支持和依据。     

城市人工构筑物的多尺度生态影响

人工构筑物是城市生态系统的重要组成部分,是人-自然耦合关系的基本作用单元。自然要素中的水、土、气、生通过人工构筑物这一基本单元作用或影响人的生存、健康与发展,而人通过构筑物作用或影响自然中的水、土、气、生,进一步进化成人为主导、构筑物为基础、自然要素为条件的城市生态系统。论文综述了近年来人工构筑物多尺度生态影响的研究进展,评述了人工构筑物对土壤（水）、大气、生物生态影响的前沿动态,提出了各研究分支的关注重点及要解决的关键问题,分析了人工构筑物生态学研究的方法学问题与挑战,展望了未来该领域的基本发展走向。论文认为,构筑物生态影响涉及城乡水、土、气、生及人的健康等不同方面,现有的相关研究分散而局部,且受技术方法局限,分析结果存在很大的不确定性,研究面临巨大的转型挑战。未来构筑物生态学研究需要多学科、多尺度、多层次的系统化方法与技术的推动,城乡生态观测与实验技术的发展、多源数据处理技术以及智能计算方法的创新是该领域取得重大发展的基础与条件。     

Assessment of spatial distribution of submerged vegetation in the Orbetello lagoon by means of a mathematical model

Coastal lagoons are characterized by a constant threat of eutrophication and a critical coexistence of differing submerged vegetation forms. This paper investigates the competitive equilibrium of macroalgae and phanerogams in the Orbetello lagoon in relation to physico-chemical and environmental factors, including wind, nutrients in the water column, and sediment characteristics. A mathematical model describing the evolution of the submerged vegetation as a function of the abiotic parameters is used here in conjunction with specific experimental studies to explain the relationship between phanerogams (seagrasses) prairie expansion, water movements, and sediment characteristics. The combination of specific sediment sampling and mathematical modelling shows that water circulation and the state of the upper sediment are both dominant factors in determining the phanerogams distribution in the lagoon and the mutually exclusive growth of these groups in differing parts of the lagoon. Water currents control the distribution of floating macroalgae, resulting in an uneven accumulation of decomposing biomass and phanerogams seed dispersal. The oxygenation provided by the rooted phanerogams affects the sediment characteristics, making them suitable for further prairie expansion. In addition to sediment analysis the use of a mathematical model combining the hydrodynamics and the water quality of the lagoon provides a thorough explanation of the expansion of the rooted vegetation in critical areas. A further result of this research is the validation of the model, originally calibrated with the lagoon central stations’ data, with the newly acquired data from several other parts of the ecosystem. The model predictions are in good agreement with the field observations under a number of environmental conditions and explain the observed expansion trend of phanerogams, which are beneficial for the lagoon ecology, more thoroughly than by relying on the sediment observations alone.     

FROM FLOW TO FISH TO DOLLARS: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO WATER ALLOCATION1

This paper details a case study of economic and natural system responses to alternative water management policies in the Cache La Poudre River basin, Colorado, 1980–1994. The case study is presented to highlight the value and application of a conceptual integration of economic, salmonid population, physical habitat, and water allocation models. Five alternative regimes, all intended to increase low winter flows, were investigated. Habitat enhancements created by alternative regimes were translated to population responses and economic benefits. Analysis concluded that instream flows cannot compete on the northern Colorado water rental market; cooperative agreements offer an economically feasible way to enhance instream flows; and establishing an instream flow program on the Cache La Poudre River mainstem is a potentially profitable opportunity. The alliance of models is a dynamic multidisciplinary tool for use in professional settings and offers valuable insight for decision-making processes involved in water management.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the current assessment of climate impacts on water resources, including aquatic ecosystems, agricultural demands, and water management, in the U.S. Great Plains. Climate change in the region may have profound effects on agricultural users, aquatic ecosystems, and urban and industrial users alike. In the central Great Plains Region, the potential impacts of climate changes include changes in winter snowfall and snow-melt, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperature, and summer time average temperature. Specifically, results from general circulation models indicate that both annual average temperatures and total annual precipitation will increase over the region. However, the seasonal patterns are not uniform. The combined effect of these changes in weather patterns and average seasonal climate will affect numerous sectors critical to the economic, social and ecological welfare of this region. Research is needed to better address the current competition among the water needs of agriculture, urban and industrial uses, and natural ecosystems, and then to look at potential changes. These diverse demands on water needs in this region compound the difficulty in managing water use and projecting the impact of climate changes among the various critical sectors in this region.     

A roadmap for the conservation of freshwater mussels in Europe

Europe has a long history of human pressure on freshwater ecosystems. As pressure continues to grow and new threats emerge, there is an urgent need for conservation of freshwater biodiversity and its ecosystem services. However, whilst some taxonomic groups, mainly vertebrates, have received a disproportionate amount of attention and funds, other groups remain largely off the public and scientific radar. Freshwater mussels (Bivalvia, Unionida) are an alarming example of this conservation bias and here we point out six conceptual areas that need immediate and long-term attention: knowledge, threats, socioeconomics, conservation, governance and education. The proposed roadmap aims to advance research, policy and education by identifying the most pressing priorities for the short- and long-term conservation of freshwater mussels across Europe.