IFTCIP: An Integrated Optimization Model for Environmental Management under Uncertainty

In this study, an interval-fuzzy two-stage chance-constrained integer programming (IFTCIP) method is developed for supporting environmental management under uncertainty. The IFTCIP improves upon the existing interval, fuzzy, and two-stage programming approaches by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and discrete intervals to be directly incorporated within a general mixed integer linear programming framework. It has advantages in uncertainty reflection, policy investigation, risk assessment, and capacity-expansion analysis in comparison to the other optimization methods. Moreover, it can help examine the risk of violating system constraints and the associated consequences. The developed method is applied to the planning for facility expansion and waste-flow allocation within a municipal solid waste management system. Violations of capacity constraints are allowed under a range of significance levels, which reflects tradeoffs between the system cost and the constraint-violation risk. The results indicate that reasonable solutions for both binary and continuous variables have been generated under different risk levels. They are useful for generating desired decision alternatives with minimized system cost and constraint-violation risk under various environmental, economic, and system-reliability conditions. Generally, willingness to take a higher risk of constraint violation will guarantee a lower system cost; a strong desire to acquire a lower risk will run into a higher system cost.     

Design and evaluation of a local analytic-deliberative process for climate adaptation planning

In the midst of rapidly proliferating engagement efforts around climate adaptation, attention to the design and evaluation of decision support processes and products is warranted. We report on the development and evaluation of a process framework called the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process. VCAPS is a systematic approach to integrate local knowledge with scientific understanding by providing opportunities for facilitated, deliberative learning-based activities with local decision makers about climate change vulnerability and adaptation. We introduce the conceptual basis of the process in analytic-deliberation, hazard management, and vulnerability. Our evaluations from eight coastal communities where the approach was applied point to four assets of VCAPS: it promotes synthesis of local and scientific knowledge; it stimulates systems thinking and learning; it facilitates governance by producing action plans with transparent justifications; and it accommodates participant time constraints and preferences.     

A database for integrated assessment of European agricultural systems

A major bottleneck for data-based policy making is that data sources are collected, managed, and distributed by different institutions, residing in different locations, resulting in conceptual and practical problems. The use of dispersed data for agricultural systems research requires the integration of data sources, which means to ensure consistency in data interpretations, units, spatial and temporal scales, to respect legal regulations of privacy, ownership and copyright, and to enable easy dissemination of data. This paper describes the SEAMLESS integrated database on European agricultural systems. It contains data on cropping patterns, production, farm structural data, soil and climate conditions, current agricultural management and policy information. To arrive at one integrated database, a shared ontology was developed according to a collaborative process, which facilitates interdisciplinary research. The paper details this process, which can be re-used in other research projects for integrating data sources.     

Structuring Decisions for Managing Threatened and Endangered Species in a Changing Climate

The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision‐aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science‐based problem, we suggest that a clear decision‐making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers’ choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade‐offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision‐focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante     

Use of an Action‐Selection Framework for Human‐Carnivore Conflict in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

Abstract: Human–carnivore conflict is manifested in the death of humans, livestock, and carnivores. The resulting negative local attitudes and retribution killings imperil the future of many endangered carnivores. We tailored existing management tools to create a framework to facilitate the selection of actions to alleviate human–carnivore conflict and applied the framework to the human–tiger conflict in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We identified potential actions that consider previous management efforts, local knowledge, cost‐effectiveness, fieldwork experience of authors and project staff, previous research on tiger ecology by the authors, and recommendations from human–carnivore conflict studies in other countries. Our framework includes creation of a profile to improve understanding of the nature of the conflict and its underlying causality. Identified actions include deterrents, education, direct tiger management, and response teams. We ranked actions by their potential to reduce conflict and the monetary cost of their implementation. We ranked tiger‐response teams and monitoring problem tigers as the two best actions because both had relatively high impact and cost‐effectiveness. We believe this framework could be used under a wide range of human–wildlife conflict situations because it provides a structured approach to selection of mitigating actions.     

Value of information in product recovery decisions: a Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question ‘what is its value?’ is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information.     

DECISION-MAKING PROCESS ON THE DANUBE AND THE PLATTE1

ABSTRACT: Two case studies highlighting the institutional arrangements and decision-making processes used to attempt to allocate water on large scale river systems in two countries are presented. In both cases the implementation of river plans has been blocked by conflicts between those who wish to use water for irrigation, hydropower, or municipal purposes and those who wish to maintain instream flows for fish and wildlife. To date conflict has blocked the implementation of a large hydropower scheme on the Danube River, downstream from Vienna, Austria, and the construction of municipal and agricultural projects, as well as the relicensing of an existing hydropower facility on the Platte River in Nebraska. Analysis of the decision-making processes and institutional settings of both cases led to the identification of problem areas and development of recommendations that would support the achievement of compromise solutions for management.     

ITERATIVE EVALUATION OF A LAKE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: Local governments often face environmental problems that cross political boundaries. The onus for solution usually falls on the moat severely affected jurisdiction, others do nothing until impacted. Resolution of these problems requires cooperation across political boundaries which means that local governments must be persuaded first that there is a problem, and second that action is required to solve it. This paper presents a method to supply low cost, credible information that can be used to achieve consensus on problem solution. A case study of a lake water quality management problem is described. Formative evaluation techniques was adapted to provide a minimum of evidence which was then used to persuade less impacted local jurisdictions to cooperate in the problem solution.     

对小纸厂碱回收可行性的初步评价

本文对小型造纸厂的碱回收在技术上和经济上的可行性进行了分析,作出了当前是中、小型造纸厂搞碱回收的有利时机的初步评价。     

Trends and issues in land and water resources management: Setting the agenda for change

The classical model of a paradigm shift is used to explore changes that are occurring in public lands and water resources management. Recent policy developments suggest that the traditional paradigm, which is characterized by sustained yield, is in the process of being invalidated. While no new paradigm has been fully accepted, the emerging paradigm does appear to be based on two principles: ecosystem management and collaborative decision making. Implementation of these two principles is likely to require extensive revision of traditional management practices and institutions. Failure to address these issues could result in adoption of the rhetoric of change without any lasting shift in management practices or professional attitudes.