Drivers of future streamflow changes in watersheds across the Northeastern United States

Accurate projections of streamflow, which have implications for flooding, water resources, hydropower, and ecosystems, are critical to climate change adaptation and require an understanding of streamflow sensitivity to climate drivers. The northeastern United States has experienced a dramatic increase in extreme precipitation over the past 25 years; however, the effects of these changes, as well as changes in other drivers of streamflow, remain unclear. Here, we use a random forest model forced with a regional climate model to examine historical and future streamflow dynamics of four watersheds across the Northeast. We find that streamflow in the cold season (November–May) is primarily driven by 3-day rainfall and antecedent wetness (Antecedent Precipitation Index) in three rainfall-dominant watersheds, and 30-day rainfall, antecedent wetness, and 30-day snowmelt in the fourth, more snowmelt-dominated watershed. In the warm season (June–October), streamflow is driven by antecedent wetness and rainfall in all watersheds. By the end of the century (2070–2099), cold season streamflow depends on the importance placed on snow in the machine learning model, with changes ranging from −7% (with snow) to +40% (without snow) in a single watershed. Simulated future warm season streamflow increases in two watersheds (56% and 193%) due to increased precipitation and antecedent soil wetness, but decreases in the other two watersheds (−6% and −27%) due to reduced precipitation.     

边坡稳定性自动机器学习预测方法研究

为了简便有效地评估边坡稳定性状态,针对目前传统机器学习的算法选择与超参数优化等难题,提出1种边坡稳定性自动机器学习预测方法。首先,简要介绍5种主流开源自动机器学习框架;其次,以422组边坡稳定性样本为数据集,进行自动机器学习纯自动化训练,并与传统机器学习对比分析模型的性能与耗时;最后,综合讨论与比较典型自动机器学习框架的特性。研究结果表明：自动机器学习预测效果总体上优于传统机器学习,提升边坡稳定性预测准确率和稳健性,且无需人为干预。研究结果可为岩土工作人员准确可靠地评价边坡稳定性提供便捷条件。     

基于HMM和DT的无人机异常检测方法

为了实时检测无人机异常状态,提出基于隐马尔可夫模型(Hidden Markov Model,HMM)和决策树(Decision Tree,DT)的无人机异常检测方法(HMMDT).首先根据异常致因将无人机异常分为干扰异常和硬件异常;然后结合HMM和DT建立无人机异常检测模型,定义无人机异常度衡量异常状态的严重程度,确定...     

Building a freshman-year foundation for sustainability studies: Terrascope, a case study

Terrascope is a freshman learning community at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in which teams of students work to find solutions to large ‘unsolvable’ problems and to communicate about those problems with a wide variety of audiences in multiple formats. The program strongly promotes students’ autonomy in focusing and structuring their work, and student projects culminate in public presentations, both to general audiences and to panels of technical specialists. Students who have completed the program tend to show strong engagement with environmental and sustainability issues, as well as the skills and experience to work intensively on such issues within multidisciplinary teams. Here, we present the program as a case study, with some discussion of the factors that are key to its operation.

Learning for sustainability: participatory resource management in Cambodian fishing villages

Considerable attention is now being given to the role and importance of education and learning implications of participatory resource and environmental governance. The contention is that such learning has the potential to transform behaviour, and in the case of resource management, may help change current patterns in resource use towards a more sustainable social-ecological system. Our purpose is to establish the opportunities for learning afforded to those participating in local level resource management committees in two Cambodian fishing communities and consider the learning outcomes from such opportunities. Our approach was qualitative and used a case study design. The findings establish a wide range of committee resource management activities that resulted in both instrumental (e.g., learning about administrative procedures) and communicative (e.g., insights into the need to conserve mangroves) learning. It was revealed that such learning can lead to changes in behaviour at the community level (e.g., managing local waste). Our findings also indicated a number of motivators and enablers of learning such as opportunities for dialogue, leadership and the presence of declining resources.     

企业安全管理体系的功能实现——生产安全问题确认和求解的视角

针对企业安全管理体系相关工作与日常安全管理之间存在的"两张皮"现象,首先借助企业生产安全"问题空间"和"解空间"的概念,探讨了企业安全管理的出发点和落脚点;然后,围绕企业具体安全问题的确认和求解,分析了如何在组织层面通过三阶"学习循环"推进体系功能的实现;最后,基于RACI模型探讨了如何在个体层面支持和响应组织层面的各阶"学习循环"以真正实现体系的功能。总之,"两张皮"现象主要来自企业生产安全"目的"和"手段"不能有效对接,安全管理体系建设和功能实现应从辨识和解决企业实际问题入手。     

现代企业安全管理信息系统的构建

论述现代企业安全管理信息系统的功能需求、基本框架、核心功能和系统特点。该系统把信息技术、网络技术及GIS应用到企业安全管理中,并融入安全学习志的管理理念,同时对基于联动机制的企业安全应急决策系统综合理论及其应用进行了研究。通过该系统的建立,使安全管理工作逐步走向科学化、系统化和规范化,对提高目前安全管理水平具有实际意义。     

The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: Challenges for Regional Ecosystem Management

An adaptive management approach is necessary but not sufficient to address the long-term challenges of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Adaptive management, in turn, has its own particular challenges, of which we focus on two: science input, and stakeholder engagement. In order to frame our discussion and subsequent recommendations, we place the current management difficulties into their historical context, with special emphasis on the 1990 Vision document, which attempted a broad synthesis of management goals for the ecosystem. After examining these two key challenges in the context of the GYE, we make several recommendations that would allow for more effective ecosystem management in the long term. First, we recommend adoption of the GYE as a site for long-term science research and monitoring with an emphasis on integrative research, long-term federal funding, and public dissemination of data. Second, we conclude that a clearer prioritization of legislative mandates would allow for more flexible ecosystem management in the GYE, a region where conflicting mandates have historically led to litigation antithetical to effective ecosystem management. Finally, we recommend a renewed attempt at an updated Vision for the Future that engages stakeholders (including local landholders) substantively from the outset.     

Study of high-frequency electromagnetic field effect on some somatic and neuro-behavioral characteristics in healthy and neurodefective mice

The effect of long-term exposure to high frequency electromagnetic field (HF EMF) on some somatic and neural characteristics was studied in neurodefective Lurcher mutant (+/Lc) and normal wild type mice (+/+). Both newborn and young adult (3 months) animals derived from two strains (C3H, B6CBA) were exposed to HF EMF (870 MHz) from 1st to 21st day or from 91st to 120th day respectively. In animals of both groups and controls we observed the development of body weight. Moreover, in the HF EMF exposed adult B6CBA animals we studied spatial learning ability, motor functions and the CNS excitability. To investigate specific energy absorption rate (SAR) in experimental animals we have done the basic 3D calculations of the electromagnetic energy distribution in the simplified model of the mouse. The HF EMF exposed animals exhibited mild differences of body weight between them and unexposed controls. The long-term exposure to HF EMF did not significantly influence the ability to learn in the Morris water maze. However, significant lower swimming speed was found in the irradiated +/Lc as well as lower motor activity of +/+ in the open field when compared to controls. No significant differences were found between HF EMF irradiated animals and controls in examination of the CNS excitability and motor functions.     

基于安全学习志的安全管理信息系统构建

通过分析论述安全学习志及安全管理信息系统的发展与特点,提出基于安全学习志安全管理信息系统的逻辑结构、总体构架和功能结构,以及从方法和技术角度为“安全学习志”在企业安全管理的应用提供一个全新的实现方案。本文把安全学习志这种理念融入到企业安全管理中,并对安全应急决策系统综合理论及安全管理信息系统建立技术方案的研究,目的在于为今后进一步的安全管理信息系统开发作理论和技术方法探索。