growing pains: a conceptual framework for considering integrated assessments

Policy concerns related to the environment have grown in the past decadesfrom relatively local and well-defined problems to increasingly complex andglobal issues. With this has grown the need to develop the capacity tointegrate, reconcile, organize, and communicate knowledge across scientificdisciplines, as well as to make this knowledge available and useful for policy-makers. One response to this has been the growing field ofIntegrated Assessment (IA). Our goal in this paper is to reflect on the purpose and valueof IA in principle. We propose a conceptual framework within whichindividual IA studies, and the practice of IA as a whole, can be placed andevaluated. The framework addresses both the integrative nature of IAs andtheir policy usefulness, including a self-awareness of their role and capabilities. We illustrate several stages in the evolution of integrated assessments: fromlinear to more complex chains of analysis, from non-adaptive to perfectly-adaptive to realistically-adaptive agents, from simplistic to sophisticated to pluralistic consideration of alternative underlying development paths, from strictly quantitative to quantitative and qualitative analyses, from science-driven to policy-driven, and from analyses that dictate to users to those that involvethose users in the actual assessment process. By so doing, we argue for botha richer form and process of IA. Ultimately, we feel that it may also benecessary to reconsider the framing of the questions that IAs have been askedto address, perhaps leading to the consideration of the use of other forms of mandated science.     

论地缘能权

权力与空间是透视与解析能源地缘政治、能源安全、国际能源合作与全球能源治理等问题的重要视角。从能源的基本地理属性出发,探讨能源的地缘政治属性,提出地缘能权的概念,阐述地缘能权的基本理论内涵,并借鉴经典地理学理论,提出地缘能权研究的地理学框架。研究认为：资源控制权、贸易控制权、技术控制权和资本控制权是最核心的四种能源权力。其中,资源控制权与贸易控制权是传统能源地缘政治的核心,技术控制权和资本控制权是新时代能源权力关注的新焦点,而经济全球化、区域一体化和全球能源治理等因素拓展了地缘能权的外延。从地理学的视角对地缘能权进行研究,其基本范式离不开能源地理的分布规律研究,能源权力从地点空间向流空间的转向研究,能源行为体的相互关系与全球能源治理研究以及面向国家能源安全的决策服务研究。     

“新三农”视域下中国耕地利用的可持续集约化：概念认知与研究框架

耕地利用的可持续集约化为保障粮食安全、农业绿色发展和资源永续利用提供了新思路,对于深化农民主体地位、夯实农业发展的现代化导向、破解“新三农”复杂的问题集合具有重要的现实意义。系统梳理国外可持续集约化的思想缘起,辨析可持续集约化的内涵差异,厘清“新三农”视域下中国耕地利用可持续集约化的逻辑本源;基于要素融合—结构重整—功能优化的运行轨迹,遵循耕地利用系统过程—格局—机制—效应的逻辑进路,尝试从学理辨析、水平测度、演化机理和优化调控等方面厘清耕地利用系统基本问题域并阐释其研究主题,构建耕地利用可持续集约化的研究框架。探索性提出未来研究需重点关注的农业生态空间—人地关系—耕地利用可持续集约化等科学问题,探讨因素+机理、功能+系统、过程+格局、尺度+界面的关键路径。     

A framework for assessing the accountability of local governance arrangements for adaptation to climate change

Accountability has hardly been studied in the governance of climate change adaptation. This paper develops a framework for assessing the accountability of interactive governance arrangements for local adaptation. This framework is based on five important accountability mechanisms: Clear responsibilities and mandates, Transparency, Political oversight, Citizen control and Checks and sanctions. For illustration purposes, the proposed framework is applied to the case of a Dutch local adaptation governance arrangement. The application shows that the five proposed mechanisms and their operationalizations offer a valid assessment of the accountability of such arrangements. It also raises some challenges, such as the tensions between accountability and flexibility, legitimacy and effectiveness; the potentially important roles of trust and of the political skills of central actor(s) in the arrangement in raising accountability, and the potential need to distinguish between arrangements for policy planning and for service delivery.     

Diversifying forest expertise: forest journals narrating policy change

ABSTRACT

During policy change, the role of the actors communicating the change to different audiences is accentuated. The media plays an increasing role, either as an actor or by providing a stage for other actors. In particular, specialised journals represent an influential, albeit understudied, sphere of policy studies. We use the narrative policy framework complemented with frame analysis to trace how specialised media can affect policy implementation through implicit suggestions for action. Using this combined approach, we analyse how specialised forest journals, which are the most important forest information source for Finnish forest owners, have conveyed the renewal of forest legislation in Finland. The core message of the journals is that forest owners should, despite their new freedom granted by the reform, rely on experts rather than experimenting when managing their forests. This suggests that the media contributes to a path-dependent continuation of a forest policy that is based on a rationalistic exploitation ethos. The innovative potential, which the policy change aimed at encouraging, is thereby partially undermined. However, the analysis of the narratives also reveals that forest expertise and professionalism are diversifying. This notion is important as diversity can eventually lead to narratives supporting more fundamental change in forests management.     

浙江省企业环境保护社会责任制度建设探索

通过分析国内外企业环境保护社会责任的发展现状、存在问题和浙江省开展企业社会责任试点工作的主要做法,主要从政府、企业、公众3个方面来构建了浙江省企业环境保护社会责任制度框架。构建制度框架的关键重点不在于制定新的政策与机制,而是将现有的企业自愿性政策与政府的强制性政策相配套与整合,并进行适当的补充。从而形成综合的制度框架。制度框架的最终目的在于,充分发挥政府的引导和推动作用、发挥企业的主体作用、发挥行业协会商会等组织的自律作用、发动社会各方广泛参与,着力构建政府引导、企业自愿、行业自律、社会监督“四位一体”的企业环境保护社会责任推进机制。     

Ten years of international scientific cooperation in fisheries,aquaculture and coastal zones: some preliminary lessons

The paper examines preliminary experiences with international scientific cooperation in fisheries, aquaculture and coastal zone issues through 90 projects in successive European Research Framework Programmes (FP4–FP6: 1994–2006). FPs had increasingly ambitious objectives in response to international commitments, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Millennium Development Goals, the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation and dialogue with partner regions. Sustainable aquatic food production in the context of respect for ecosystems was a central concern. Engagement with different social actors and attention to investment in education, people and institutions enabled uptake of research results in education, innovation and some impact. The emphasis in several recent projects on more integrated analyses and knowledge products in the public domain is an encouraging response to the growing crisis of aquatic resource systems. It is suggested that significant up-scaling will be required. This might be done through institutional internalisation and better translation of research results into policy developments supportive of transitions towards sustainable production systems and ecosystem rehabilitation. Capacity building to use research in novel ways and other enabling mechanisms need to be put in place to increase societal and environmental benefits of the research.

Uncertainty analysis framework for tubular connection sealability of underground gas storage wells

The seal failure of tubing and casing connections compromises underground gas storage well safety. This work proposes a systematic uncertainty analysis framework for connection sealability assessment. The framework covers reliability analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis and attempts to provide more effective support for the reliability design of connection seals. The reliability analysis introduces an adaptive Kriging with stopping criterion P-Monte Carlo simulation (AKP-MCS) method, which can provide a satisfactory estimate of failure probability with a small number of performance function evaluations. This metamodeling technology can effectively reduce the numerical efforts required for the reliability assessment of connection sealability. In the reliability sensitivity analysis, the refined metamodel obtained from the reliability analysis is coupled into a single-loop Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The classifier attribute of this metamodel can meet the requirement of the single-loop MCS method to classify the signs of sampling points. This attribute enables sample matrices to be evaluated on this metamodel instead of the performance function, making the reliability sensitivity assessment more feasible. The proposed method is first demonstrated with four academic examples with promising results. Next, an illustrative tubular connection case is provided. The proposed scheme gives estimates of the failure probability and reliability sensitivity close to the classical model but requires less computational cost. The results of the analysis can provide useful information for the scheme decision-making and reliability optimization of connection seal design.     

我国生态功能区划的目标、原则与体系

阐述了我国开展生态功能区划的背景,分析了全国生态功能区划的基本目标和任务。以生态系统科学为基础,明确了开展生态功能区划的基本原则——生态系统完整性原则。在生态系统完整性原则下。定义系统、系统边界、系统等级和认识生态系统的尺度。对生态功能区划与自然区划、农业区划以及生态地域划分之间的联系与区别进行了分析,指出从单一要素的各种自然区划,到以整体生态系统为基础的生态功能区划是协调人与自然关系、寻求自然资源保护与人类对资源的永续利用之间的平衡的认识进步。在生态系统完整性原则上,提出了我国生态功能区划体系的框架。论述了流域在生态和社会经济方面的重要性。认为以大流域为基本区划单元的划分是构建我国生态功能区划的基本方式．“生态热点”地区规划是必要的、灵活的辅助手段．     

基于DPSIR概念模型的农业可持续发展宏观分析

DPSIR概念模型继承了PSR模型的优点，是分析评估环境系统有效工具，本文以DPISR概念模型为指导，系统分析了农业业系统的现状，塑造这一现状的驱动力和压力，探讨了农业对于互不干涉和人类健康的影响，以及实现农业可持续发展的政策响应，目的是建立农业可持续发展的指标体系和实现农业资源的优化配置，本文认为DPSIR概念模型有利于分析复杂系统的因果关系，能有效整合资源开发，环境保护和经济发展。