近10年来长江下游地区耕地动态变化特征

基于遥感资料和GIS分析,对1988～1998年长江下游地区耕地与其他土地利用类型之间相互转变数量特征,以及耕地变化强度、耕地流失强度的区域分异特征进行了分析和描述,对耕地变化导致的环境效应进行了初步探讨。研究结果表明:①1988～1998年,耕地与林地、灌丛、水体之间的转变,对其数量动态变化起着主要作用,在上述转变过程中,耕地总体表现出数量明显减少、质量降低的趋势;②农田向城镇的单向转移,体现了区域快速城市化对耕地的侵占过程,从空间分布看,该过程主要体现于上海、苏锡常地区、南京、杭州等城市化过程最为剧烈的地区;③长江下游地区1988～1998年耕地年均流失率为0.77%,流失的主体部分是位于长江三角洲和巢湖平原自然条件优越、水利灌溉配套设施完善的传统优质耕地,新形成的部分则主要来自于滩涂湿地开垦及低山丘陵地区毁林开荒。总体而言,长江下游地区耕地流失体现在数量锐减、质量下降两个方面,并伴随着一系列生态破坏问题的出现。     

淠河流域不同强度等级降水变化研究

淠河流域降水时空变率大,深入分析不同强度等级降水的特征和变化,对于全面揭示研究区气候变化、合理有效利用水资源、防治洪旱灾害具有十分重要的意义。基于淠河流域12个气象站1958~2012年逐日降水资料,分析年、季不同级别降水量(频次)的变化特点,以及主汛期(5~9月)连续3d最大降水量的概率分布。结果表明,淠河流域小雨量(频次)四季分布比较均匀,级别越高,降水频次越少,分布越集中,夏季暴雨多发。淠河流域年总降水量增加趋势不显著,总降水频次则显著减少。夏季各级别降水量(频次)均呈增加趋势,其中暴雨增加最显著,冬季总降水频次无明显趋势变化,小雨、中雨量增加显著,春、秋季总降水频次和小雨频次的减少趋势极其显著。淠河流域暴雨量、暴雨频次均在1968年发生增多突变,小雨频次在1975年有极显著减少突变,年总降水量有增多突变,总降水频次则有减少突变。自20世纪70年代后期以来,研究区主汛期连续3d极端强降水出现概率加大,不同重现期极值增大,洪涝灾害风险加剧。     

流域城市水交易机制研究

为了解决流域城市水资源短缺以及水环境污染的一系列问题.提出了"流域城市"的基本概念,并结合水权和排污权交易模式相关的研究内容,构建了包涵水权交易和排污权交易的市场平台;建立了一个在水务部门与环保部门共同监督管理之下的水交易市场体系,综合进行水交易.最后以黄河流域兰州段为实例,对由初始权分配比例、环境容量、交易保护价格等构建的水市场所需要的参数进行了分析计算.研究结果表明,当节水技术和排污浓度不变,且购入方没有剩余的水权或排污权时,排污权交易与水权交易是按一定的比例进行的.     

Determining the tourism potential of the Altındere Valley National Park (Trabzon/Turkey) with respect to its conservation value

This study was conducted to determine the tourism potential of Alt?ndere Valley National Park with respect to its conservation and utilization. With its natural values, Alt?ndere Valley National Park is one of the internationally prominent areas of potential for the recreational and touristic facilities it offers.

A mathematical method – criterion referenced method – was applied within this study, which was done to portray the touristic potential (resulting from the touristic and recreational utilization of the national park area and recreational zone) of the national park, which was visited by an average of 200,000 local and foreign guests.

According to this method, the conservation and utilization values that appear on two opposite axes were examined in accordance with the natural resource values of the area, and conservation and utilization values for each criterion were determined. Depending on the data, the general exploitable touristic potential of the area was specified.

A survey study was conducted on groups from various disciplines and local & foreign tourists visiting the area in specifying the touristic potential of the National Park. Eleven criteria were defined concerning the area and a criterion reference was prepared for each criterion. Then, conservation and utilization values for each criterion and exploitable touristic potential were mathematically indicated. The fact that the attained values were reduced to a percentage basis provides the opportunity to compare the researched area to similar fields that use the same method. Within the scope of the method, several suggestions were made using the information obtained in the evaluation of the data for every other source value.     

基于SWAT模型的淠河流域土地利用变化的水文响应模拟

以淮河南岸最大支流——淠河流域为研究区域,采用嵌套入ArcGIS软件的SWAT分布式机理性水文模型定量评估土地利用变化对降水-径流关系的影响.结果表明,1996-2010年淠河流域的土地利用变化主要表现为水田、旱地向建设用地转化以及林地向园地转化.相较于1996年的土地利用情景,2010年土地利用情景下的多年平均径流增加5.87％,年径流的增加主要表现为汛期径流增加,非汛期径流则呈减少趋势,径流量年内变幅加大.对于不同水文年份而言,平水年对土地利用变化的水文响应最明显,变幅最大,枯水年则略大于丰水年,淠河流域的水源涵养能力呈现减退趋势.     

Time series modelling of respiratory hospital admissions and geometrically weighted distributed lag effects from ambient particulate air pollution within Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

The distributed lag effects of ambient particulate air pollution exposure on respiratory hospital admissions in Kathmandu Valley are modelled using daily time series data. The extended exposure to PM₁₀ is accounted for by assigning weights to daily average PM₁₀ which decline geometrically as the lag period increases in days. Results show that the percent increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospital admissions and respiratory admissions including COPD, asthma, pneumonia, and bronchitis per 10 μg/m³ rise in PM₁₀ are found to be 4.85% for 30 days lag effect, about 15.9% higher than that observed for same-day lag effect and 3.52% for 40 days lag effect, about 28.9% higher than the observed value for same-day lag effect, respectively.     

金沙江干热河谷生态环境的持续发展对策

本文以东川为例,通过对金沙江干热河谷典型生态环境脆弱带的调查研究,分析了造成该地区生态环境严重破坏的原因,提出了整治泥石流、水土流失的措施,以及农业生产可持续发展的主要途径,最终达到对资源的综合开发和保护,实现人与自然协调发展的目的     

Understanding the Ecology of Blue Elderberry to Inform Landscape Restoration in Semiarid River Corridors

Societal constraints often limit full process restoration in large river systems, making local rehabilitation activities valuable for regeneration of riparian vegetation. A target of much mitigation and restoration is the federally threatened Valley elderberry longhorn beetle and its sole host plant, blue elderberry, in upper riparian floodplain environments. However, blue elderberry ecology is not well understood and restoration attempts typically have low success rates. We determined broad-scale habitat characteristics of elderberry in altered systems and examined associated plant species composition in remnant habitat. We quantified vegetation community composition in 139 remnant riparian forest patches along the Sacramento River and elderberry stem diameters along this and four adjacent rivers. The greatest proportion of plots containing elderberry was located on higher and older floodplain surfaces and in riparian woodlands dominated by black walnut. Blue elderberry saplings and shrubs with stems <5.0 cm in diameter were rare, suggesting a lack of recruitment. A complex suite of vegetation was associated with blue elderberry, including several invasive species which are potentially outcompeting seedlings for light, water, or other resources. Such lack of recruitment places increased importance on horticultural restoration for the survival of an imperiled species. These findings further indicate a need to ascertain whether intervention is necessary to maintain functional and diverse riparian woodlands, and a need to monitor vegetative species composition over time, especially in relation to flow regulation.     

河湟谷地不同时空尺度下土地利用及空间格局对水质的影响

基于青海省河湟谷地湟源县、互助土族自治县和民和回族土族自治县内湟水河各级支流平水期和丰水期实测水质数据,结合遥感技术和数理统计等方法,分析土地利用结构及其空间格局对区域季节性水质的影响.结果表明：①河湟谷地地表水中总氮、总磷浓度偏高,Ⅳ和Ⅴ类水质多集中于河流下游和各支流交汇处.②河湟谷地平水期土地利用对水质的解释率高于丰水期,平水期最优尺度为200 m缓冲区,耕地和城镇为主要的影响因子;丰水期最优尺度为5 km缓冲区尺度,主要的影响因子为林地.③平水期耕地面积占比与总氮、高锰酸盐指数浓度呈正相关,而与总磷浓度呈负相关;城镇面积占比与污染物浓度基本呈正相关;丰水期草地面积占比与河流高锰酸盐指数呈正相关;林地面积占比在两个时期均与污染物浓度呈负相关.耕地、草地和城镇是污染物"源"景观,但耕地在一定程度上也起到拦截污染物的作用;林地是污染物的"汇"景观.④平水期200 m缓冲区尺度下林地空间格局对水质的解释率较高,其中LPI （最大斑块占景观面积比例）和PD （斑块密度）等指标为主要的影响因子,与污染物浓度呈负相关.研究表明,合理规划居民用地和耕地面积占比,提高河岸带周边的林地覆盖率及聚集度,是净化河湟谷地地表水水质的重要措施.     

安宁河流域稻米生化品质的气候关系模型

利用粳稻品种“合系39”在安宁河流域无控制的地理分期播种试验稻米,在实验室进行稻米生化品质的化验分析;采用统计分析方法,研究了气候生态因子与稻米生化品质的定量关系,找出影响稻米生化品质各组分的关键时期,建立综合关系模型.研究结果表明: 1)气候生态条件对生化品质不同组分影响的关键因子和关键时期不同,一些组分的关键期在齐穗前,一些在齐穗后,一些则从齐穗前持续到齐穗后; 2)温度是影响稻米生化品质含量的主要气候因素,蛋白质、氨基酸和直链淀粉含量与关键期的温度呈直线负相关,支链淀粉含量与关键期的温度呈抛物线关系; 3)温度日较差、日照时数与蛋白质、氨基酸、直链淀粉呈负相关,与支链淀粉呈正相关. 图4表2参10