Chains of accidents (the domino effect) have been occurring with ever increasing frequency in chemical process industries. This is reflected in several accidents ‘J Loss Prevent Process Ind 12 (1999a) 361’; the world's worst industrial accident of the 1990s — the Vishakhpatnam disaster — also involved the domino effect ‘J Loss Prevent Process Ind 12 (1999a) 361; and Process Safety Prog 18 (1999b) 135’. Such chains of accidents have a greater propensity to cause damage than stand-alone accidents ‘Process Safety Prog 17(2) (1998a) 107; and J Loss Prevent Process Ind 12 (1999a) 361’.In order to assess the likelihood of occurrence of the domino effect and its damage potential, use of deterministic models in conjunction with probabilistic analysis is required. Recently we have proposed a systematic methodology called ‘domino effect analysis’ (DEA). A computer-automated tool, DOMIFFECT, has also been developed by us based on DEA ‘Process Safety Prog 17(2) (1998a) 107; Environment Model Software 13 (1998b) 163; and Risk assessment in chemical process industries: advanced techniques. Discovery Publishing House (1998c)’.This paper illustrates the application of DEA and DOMIFFECT to an industrial complex comprising 16 different industries. Out of 12 credible accident scenarios envisaged in three different industries — namely Madras Refineries Limited (MRL), UB Petrochemicals (UBP) and Indian Organic Chemicals Limited (IOCL), eight scenarios are likely to cause the domino effect. A further detailed analysis reveals that accidents in the storage of liquified petroleum gas and propylene and in the reflux drum units of MRL may cause domino effects. Similarly, propylene storage of UBP and monoethylene glycol storage of IOCL are also likely to cause domino effects. The impact of various chains of accidents has been forecast which reveals that in several cases the accidents may be catastrophic, harming the entire industrial complex of 16 industries. The study leads to the identification of ‘hot spots’ — units that pose the greatest risk — in turn forewarning the industries concerned and enabling them to prioritize and augment accident-prevention steps. 相似文献
Objective: European car design regulations and New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) ratings have led to reductions in pedestrian injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of improving vehicle front design on mortality and morbidity due to pedestrian injuries in a European country (Germany) and 2 countries (the United States and India) that do not have pedestrian-focused NCAP testing or design regulations.
Methods: We used data from the International Road Traffic and Accident Database and the Global Burden of Disease project to estimate baseline pedestrian deaths and nonfatal injuries in each country in 2013. The effect of improved passenger car star ratings on probability of pedestrian injury was based on recent evaluations of pedestrian crash data from Germany. The effect of improved heavy motor vehicle (HMV) front end design on pedestrian injuries was based on estimates reported by simulation studies. We used burden of disease methods to estimate population health loss by combining the burden of morbidity and mortality in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost.
Results: Extrapolating from evaluations in Germany suggests that improving front end design of cars can potentially reduce the burden of pedestrian injuries due to cars by up to 24% in the United States and 41% in India. In Germany, where cars comply with the United Nations regulation on pedestrian safety, additional improvements would have led to a 1% reduction. Similarly, improved HMV design would reduce DALYs lost by pedestrian victims hit by HMVs by 20% in each country. Overall, improved vehicle design would reduce DALYs lost to road traffic injuries (RTIs) by 0.8% in Germany, 4.1% in the United States, and 6.7% in India.
Conclusions: Recent evaluations show a strong correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian scores and real-life pedestrian injuries, suggesting that improved car front end design in Europe has led to substantial reductions in pedestrian injuries. Although the United States has fewer pedestrian crashes, it would nevertheless benefit substantially by adopting similar regulations and instituting pedestrian NCAP testing. The maximum benefit would be realized in low- and middle-income countries like India that have a high proportion of pedestrian crashes. Though crash avoidance technologies are being developed to protect pedestrians, supplemental protection through design regulations may significantly improve injury countermeasures for vulnerable road users. 相似文献
Objective: The objective of this study is to identify the role of working conditions as predictors of sleepiness while driving among truck drivers.Methods: This was a cross-sectional study carried out among truck drivers who transported grains to Paranaguá Port, Paraná, Brazil. The truck drivers were interviewed and completed a self-administered questionnaire to collect data on sociodemographic and behavioral variables, working conditions, consumption of illicit psychoactive substances, and sleep patterns. Drivers were considered to be sleepy while driving if they reported a medium or high probability of napping while driving at night, during the daytime, or while stopped in traffic. The statistical analysis used logistic regression models progressively adjusted for age, behavioral variables, sleep duration, and other working conditions.Results: In total, 670 male drivers, with a mean age of 41.9 (±11.1) years, were enrolled. The prevalence of sleepiness while driving was 31.5%. After model adjustments, the following working conditions were associated with sleepiness while driving: Distance from the last shipment of more than 1,000?km (odds ratio [OR]?=?1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07–2.23) and a formal labor contract with a productivity-based salary (OR = 2.65; 95% CI, 1.86–3.78). Consumption of illicit psychoactive substances (OR = 1.99; 95% CI, 1.14–3.47) was also associated with sleepiness while driving.Conclusions: Distance traveled and a formal labor contract with productivity-based earnings were the working conditions associated with sleepiness while driving, regardless of other working or behavioral characteristics, age, consumption of illicit psychoactive substances, and sleep duration. 相似文献
Many industries are confronted by plateauing safety performance as measured by the absence of negative events – particularly lower-consequence incidents or injuries. At the same time, these industries are sometimes surprised by large fatal accidents that seem to have no connection with their understanding of the risks they faced; or with how they were measuring safety. This article reviews the safety literature to examine how both these surprises and the asymptote are linked to the very structures and practices organizations have in place to manage safety. The article finds that safety practices associated with compliance, control and quantification could be partly responsible. These can create a sense of invulnerability through safety performance close to zero; organizational resources can get deflected into unproductive or counterproductive initiatives; obsolete practices for keeping human performance within a pre-specified bandwidth are sustained; and accountability relationships can encourage suppression of the ‘bad news’ necessary to learn and improve. 相似文献
Objective: The objective of this study was to leverage a state health department's operational data to allocate in-kind resources (children's car seats) to counties, with the proposition that need-based allocation could ultimately improve public health outcomes.
Methods: This study used a retrospective analysis of administrative data on car seats distributed to counties statewide by the Georgia Department of Public Health and development of a need-based allocation tool (presented as interactive supplemental digital content, adaptable to other types of in-kind public health resources) that relies on current county-level injury and sociodemographic data.
Results: Car seat allocation using public health data and a need-based formula resulted in substantially different recommended allocations to individual counties compared to historic distribution.
Conclusions: Results indicate that making an in-kind public health resource like car seats universally available results in a less equitable distribution of that resource compared to deliberate allocation according to public health need. Public health agencies can use local data to allocate in-kind resources consistent with health objectives; that is, in a manner offering the greatest potential health impact. Future analysis can determine whether the change to a more equitable allocation of resources is also more efficient, resulting in measurably improved public health outcomes. 相似文献
Objective: Road traffic mortality takes an enormous toll in every society. Transport safety interventions play a crucial role in improving the situation. In the period 1996–2014 several road safety measures, including a complex new road traffic law in 2009, were implemented in the Slovak Republic, introducing stricter conditions for road users.
The aim of this study is to describe and analyze the trends in road user mortality in the Slovak Republic in individual age groups by sex during the study period 1996–2014.
Methods: Data on overall mortality in the Slovak Republic for the period 1996–2014 were obtained from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic. Mortality rates were age-adjusted to the European standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to assess the statistical significance of change in time trends of calculated standardized mortality rates.
Results: Mortality rates of all types of road users as well as all age groups and both sexes in the Slovak Republic in the period 1996–2014 are decreasing. The male : female ratio decreased from 4:1 in 1996 to 2:1 in 2014. Motor vehicle users (other than motorcyclists) and pedestrians have the highest mortality rates among road user groups. Both of these groups show a significant decline in mortality rates over the study period. Within the age groups, people age 65 years and over have the highest mortality rates, followed by the age groups 25–64 and 15–24 years old.
Joinpoint regression confirmed a steady, significant decline in all mortality rates over the study period. A statistically significant decrease in mortality rates in the last years of the study period was observed in the age group 25–64 and in male motorcycle users.
Assessing the impact of the 2009 road traffic law, a drop was observed in the average standardized mortality rate of all road traffic users from 14.56 per 100,000 person years in the period 1996–2008 to 7.69 per 100,000 person years in the period 2009–2014. A similar drop in the average standardized mortality rate was observed in all individual road user groups.
Conclusions: The implementation of the new traffic regulations may have contributed significantly to the observed decrease in mortality rates of road users in the Slovak Republic. A significant decrease in mortality was observed in all population groups and in all groups of road users. The introduction of a new comprehensive road traffic law may have expedited the decrease of road fatalities, especially in the age group 25–64 years old. This type of evidence-based epidemiology data can be used for improved targeting of future public health measures for road traffic injury prevention. 相似文献