A methodology for enhancing the reliability of expert system applications in probabilistic risk assessment

In highly complex industries, capturing and employing expert systems is significantly important to an organization's success considering the advantages of knowledge-based systems. The two most important issues within the expert system applications in risk and reliability analysis are the acquisition of domain experts' professional knowledge and the reasoning and representation of the knowledge that might be expressed. The first issue can be correctly handled by employing a heterogeneous group of experts during the expert knowledge acquisition processes. The members of an expert panel regularly represent different experiences and knowledge. Subsequently, this diversity produces various sorts of information which may be known or unknown, accurate or inaccurate, and complete or incomplete based on its cross-functional and multidisciplinary nature. The second issue, as a promising tool for knowledge reasoning, still suffers from lack of deficiencies such as weight and certainty factor, and are insufficient to accurately represent complex rule-based expert systems. The outputs in current expert system applications in probabilistic risk assessment could not accurately represent the increasingly complex knowledge-based systems. The reason is the lack of certainty and self-assurance of experts when they are expressing their opinions. In this paper, a novel methodology is presented based on the concept of Z-numbers to overcome this issue. A case study in a high-tech process industry is provided in detail to demonstrate the application and feasibility of the proposed methodology.     

Assessing the performance of motorcyclists’ impact protectors in simulated ATD knee and shoulder impacts

Objective: Fractures are a common injury among motorcycle riders and can have serious health implications. Impact protection (IP) has been designed to help prevent fractures, yet there are conflicting opinions as to whether this IP does in fact help prevent fractures in real-world crashes. This work aimed to (1) use simulated dummy impacts to examine whether existing types of IP could reduce the force transferred to the underlying bone to below fracture tolerance levels and (2) investigate whether current European Standard (EN 1621-1) test procedures for impact protectors designed for motorcyclists are sufficient to ensure fracture protection.

Method: Twenty-three shoulder and 7 knee IP specimens were tested using a 23-kg impactor contacting axially along the clavicle and femur of an anthropomorphic test device (ATD) at an energy level corresponding to the fracture tolerance of these bones. Sixteen IP specimens were the same as those worn by motorcycle riders involved in crashes where injury outcome was known (knee: n?=?3; shoulder: n?=?13) and the IP had been previously tested to EN 1621-1. Other IP tested represented a wide range of IP available for purchase at a motorcycle accessory store. Double and triple layers of IP were also tested. Energy attenuated during the dummy impacts was compared to energy attenuated when tested to EN 1621-1.

Results: Of the 23 shoulder IP tested, the average percentage reduction of transferred force to the shoulder from the baseline test was 7.6?±?4.8%. The percentage reduction of transferred force to the knee from the baseline was 43.9?±?7.5%. The entire group of knee IP tested reduced the transferred force to the knee to below the 10-kN injury threshold for the femur. There was a positive but nonsignificant correlation between the ATD test and the EN 1621-1 impact test performance, suggesting that the European standard test method likely provides a good indication of IP performance. However, given the low correlation coefficient, the relationship between IP performance in the European standard test method and injury protection remains unclear.

Conclusion: Though the energy attenuation test method in the European standard may be an appropriate approach, distinct differences in injury protection performance observed between knee and shoulder IP indicate that there may be a need for different performance criteria for IP designated to protect different body regions.     

基于能量理论的煤与瓦斯突出机理探讨

为研究煤与瓦斯突出的力学机理和能量来源,根据理想气体状态方程,推导了采场围岩瓦斯突出过程中的瓦斯压力、瓦斯含量与对外做功的关系,基于弹塑性力学,阐明了岩体弹塑性状态转化前后应变能释放机理。研究结果表明:煤与瓦斯突出是瓦斯势能与煤岩体弹性能共同作用并转化为煤岩体动能的结果;瓦斯势能释放值与释放路径无关,而与瓦斯压力和瓦斯含量相关,与煤壁前方塑性区扩展规模相关;将其应用至1次特大型煤与瓦斯突出事故中,核算的突出煤量、瓦斯含量和煤体抛出速度基本吻合于实际结果;基于理论分析提出了煤与瓦斯突出的3项防治措施,一是通过钻孔卸压或瓦斯抽放减小瓦斯压力,二是增加极限平衡区距离或减小截深,三是避免高瓦斯巷道或工作面出现蝶形塑性破坏。     

Measurement of minimum ignition energies (MIEs) of dust clouds – History,present, future

Nearly 130 years ago Holtzwart and von Meyer (1891) demonstrated by experiments that explosible dust clouds could be ignited by inductive electric sparks. Then more than half a century passed before the publication of the important quantitative research of Boyle and Llewellyn (1950) and Line et al. (1959). They worked with capacitive electric sparks and found that the minimum capacitor energies ½CU² required for ignition of various dust clouds in air decreased substantially when a large series resistance, in the range 10⁴–10⁷ Ω, was introduced in the discharge circuit. When considering that the net energies of the sparks themselves were only of the order of 10% of the ½CU² discharged, the minimum net spark energies required for ignition with a large series resistance were only a few per cent of the net energies required without such a resistance.Line et al. observed that the essential effect of increasing the series resistance, and hence increasing the discharge time of the sparks, was to reduce the disturbance of the dust cloud by the blast wave from the spark. This phenomenon was explored further by Eckhoff (1970, 2017), and subsequently by some simple experiments by Eckhoff and Enstad (1976). Franke (1974, 1977) and Laar (1980) confirmed the additional finding of Line et al. (1959) that the minimum ½CU² for ignition is also substantially reduced by including a series inductance in the discharge circuit, rather than a series resistance. The basic reason is the same as with a large series resistance, viz. increased spark discharge time and hence decreased disturbance of the dust cloud by blast wave from the spark. For this reason inclusion of an appreciable series inductance in the spark discharge circuit is an essential element in current standard MIE test methods.In experiments with spark ignition of transient dust clouds produced by a blast of air in a closed vessel, it is necessary to synchronize the occurrence of the spark with the formation of the dust cloud. The precision required from this type of synchronization is typically of the order of 10 ms, which can be obtained even by mechanical arrangements, such as rapid change of spark gap length, or of the distance between two capacitor plates. The present paper reviews some methods that have been/are being used for achieving adequate synchronization of dust cloud appearance and spark discharge. Some current standard experimental methods for determining MIEs of dust clouds experimentally have also been reviewed. The same applies to some theories of electric-spark ignition of dust clouds.At the end of paper some suggestions for possible future modifications of current standard methods for measuring MIEs of explosible dust clouds are presented. With regard to justifying significant modifications of existing standard methods, the “bottom line” is, as quite often in many connections, that any modifications should be based on realistic cost/benefit evaluations.     

Assessment of energy balance against the nutritional status of women carriers in the brickfields of West Bengal

The Indian brick industry is an unorganized sector in which large numbers of migrant women workers are employed. A survey was conducted on 62 women workers working in different brickfields of West Bengal to assess their physiological workload, nutritional profile, total energy expenditure and energy balance. Energy intake was calculated using physiological fuel values of carbohydrate, fat and protein. From the results it is seen that 13% of the sample population falls under severe (grade III) chronic energy deficiency. The average daily consumption of the workers was comparatively lower than their daily energy expenditure, considering the nature of the job which falls under heavy to extremely heavy categories. This negative energy balance is effectively observed in the nutritional anthropometry data. Thus, an immediate ergonomics intervention with better nutrition should be implemented to improve the health status of the workers so they can safely continue to work for a longer period.     

基于高斯模型的液氨储罐泄漏扩散仿真分析

为研究氨气泄漏的扩散距离与风速的关系,有效控制和降低事故的后果,以渭南某化工企业液氨储罐为研究对象,对液氨储罐泄漏的扩散规律进行数值仿真分析。首先运用MATLAB仿真模拟软件,采用高斯羽流模型,研究液氨储罐的泄漏扩散的影响因素,确定液氨扩散中毒危险区域。然后运用SPSS软件,采用曲线估计的方法,拟合泄漏扩散造成的下风向以及横风向距离与风速的关系。研究结果表明:液氨储罐泄漏达到连续稳定状态时,同一储罐泄露速率与泄漏孔径相关,孔径越小泄露速率越小,导致危险区域面积越小;大气稳定度越差时,所造成的危险区域面积更大;空气流动速度增加导致大气趋向稳定,能有效减小泄漏源造成的危险区域面积;获得了液氨储罐在白天(夜间)泄漏孔径为50 mm(25 mm)时,任何风速下人员中毒轻伤、重伤以及死亡的范围。     

基于地域性的三种污泥干化工艺的经济性比较

随着城市污水排放量的增多和成分的复杂化,污泥处理已成为污水处理厂面临的最大难题。脱水污泥含水率高,不利于后续的处理与再利用。污泥热干化可将污泥含水率降至10%~40%,但该过程耗能大,会大幅增加污泥处理成本,不利于污泥处理技术的推广应用。以拉萨、上海、重庆为例,分别对带式干化、热泵-太阳能干化、热泵-太阳能-蓄热干化3种污泥干化工艺的经济性进行分析,阐明了不同干化方式的适用特点,为相变蓄热技术在污泥干化中的推广应用提供了技术参考。     

危险废物处理处置企业清洁生产案例研究

为了给危险废物处理处置企业开展清洁生产提供一些基础性引导,先对比分析了危险废物处理处置企业和常规企业开展清洁生产的异同,然后以采用水泥回转窑协同处置危险废物的R公司为例,从8个方面进行产排污和清洁生产潜力分析,并结合危险废物处理全过程开展物料平衡分析,提出可行的无/低费方案和中/高费方案共19项。研究结果表明,危险废物处理处置企业存在可观的清洁生产和节能减排潜力,通过开展清洁生产可有效从源头防治二次污染,实现节能减排。     

InVEST模型对锡林郭勒草原碳储量研究的适用性分析

锡林郭勒草原是我国四大草原之一,也是内蒙古主要的天然草场。近年来,在各种因素影响下,锡林郭勒草原区生态系统发生重大变化,导致草原区碳储量也发生改变。本文尝试应用In VEST模型中的碳储量模块对2013年锡林郭勒草原碳储量进行研究,从而探究In VEST模型在碳储量研究中的适用性。结果表明:(1)锡林郭勒草原各草地类型的地下碳储量明显多于地上碳储量;(2)草甸草原碳储量典型草原碳储量荒漠草原碳储量;(3)应用In VEST模型计算不同草地类型地上和地下碳储量,草甸草原分别为196.7 g?m~(-2)和1385.2 g?m~(~(-2));典型草原的分别为133.4 g?m~(-2)和688.9 g?m~(-2);荒漠草原的分别为56.6 g?m~(-2)和301 g?m~(-2)。应用In VEST模型计算出来的碳储量值与前人采用实地采样得出的结果基本一致,所以In VEST模型对于草原区碳储量的研究具有一定的适用性。     

Thermal runaway reaction for highly exothermic material in safe storage temperature

Highly exothermic materials have caused many serious accidents involving storage and transportation, due to being thermally reactive. The safe storage and management of these materials is still a critical problem in many countries. Our aim was to study the thermal hazard of thermal reactive materials, such as a propellant, by employing differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) non-isothermal tests and isothermal tests, and then comparing the kinetic parameters by isothermal and non-isothermal of kinetics. The chosen approach was to obtain reliable thermal decomposition by a safe and effective method, which acquired the kinetic and safety parameters of storage conditions that could be applied as highly exothermic materials' reduction of loss prevention and energy potential for safer design during storage transport and processing operations.