21世纪中国环境法制建设的理性回归

本文从近几年我国环境法制建设状况的统计入手，详细地分析了近年我国环境问题的特点和环境法制建设的特点。但是，环境问题在我国仍然非常严峻，我国的环境法制建设仍然有诸多的缺陷，而且新世纪我国社会经济发展呈现出了新的特点。基于此，文章从六个方面对新世纪我国的环境法制建设进行了冷静地分析与思考，并因此得出相应的结论。     

辐射污染防治地方立法评析

由于国家立法的缺失,近年来中国的辐射污染防治地方立法十分活跃。将放射性污染防治和电磁辐射污染防治合并,制定综合性的辐射污染防治法已成为地方立法的趋势。两种辐射污染同中有异,在污染特性、危害原理和危害程度上有明显的区别,综合性立法既有必要又具可行性。但现有立法未能反映两种辐射污染防治的根本不同,特别是回避和混淆两种辐射污染的防治原则,确立电磁辐射污染防治适用风险预防原则是当务之亟。     

关于战略环境影响评价的探讨

文章从战略环境影响评价的概念和分类进行分析,结合我国战略环境影响评价的当前发展,对战略环境影响评价在我国经济发展中的意义和必要性进行研究。结合其对经济发展和地区规划的影响等多方面的分析,提出战略环境影响评价所遵循的原则和评价程序,并对其评价程序进行分析和论证,进一步论述了战略环境影响评价的意义。     

云贵高原湖区湖泊营养物生态分区技术方法研究

提出一种基于主成分分析、聚类分析、判别分析和空间自相关的分区模型,用于对云贵高原湖区湖泊营养物生态分区的研究.首先运用主成分分析方法对众多指标进行了降维综合处理,产生彼此互补相关又能综合反映湖区情况的4个新指标,累计贡献率达到93.69%,具有充分的代表性,构建了云贵高原湖区湖泊营养物生态分区指标体系.在此基础上,根据各区域新指标值,结合聚类模型初步将湖泊流域分为5类,再利用判别分析完成非湖泊流域的类别判别,最后运用空间自相关分析方法,按聚类结果进行全局自相关分析,Moran’sI为0.320,且检验值Z值为68.2,远大于临界值(显著水平1%所对应的临界值2.58),表明聚类结果与空间位置具有显著相关性,之后运用局部自相关对区域各因素的主成分综合得分的空间分布格局进行了量化分析,揭示了零散分类区块在空间地域分布上的关联和差异,根据关联结果完成最终的分区.结果表明,利用此分区模型可以尽量避免人为因素,得到更为客观的分区结果,具有良好的适应性和可行性,可为探索适合我国湖泊营养物生态分区的指标体系和分区技术方法,完成全国湖泊营养物生态分区和科学地制定我国湖泊营养物基准和富营养化控制标准提供技术支持.     

基于灰色GM(1,1)-马尔科夫模型的职业病预测研究

为准确预测量化我国职业病的发病趋势,在灰色GM(1,1)模型的基础上结合马尔科夫过程构建灰色GM(1,1)-马尔科夫预测模型,探讨灰色GM(1,1)-马尔科夫模型在职业病预测领域的应用。通过平均相对误差、后验差比值、小误差概率3个指标对该组合模型的预测精度进行评估。结果表明:10维灰色GM(1,1)-马尔科夫模型与原始数列的拟合程度较高,预测精度等级为一级（好）,该组合模型的预测精度优于单一的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型;在遵循新陈代谢原理的情况下,我国职业病发病呈现上升态势,2015—2018年的职业病发病例数依次为31 196,36 284,37 724,39 147例。     

Cosmological implications of the Machian principle

The famous idea of Ernst Mach concerning the non-absolute but relational character of particle inertia is taken up in this paper and is reinvestigated with respect to its cosmological implications. From Thirring’s general relativistic study of the old Newtonian problem of the relativity of rotations in different reference systems, it appears that the equivalence principle with respect to rotating reference systems, if at all, can only be extended to the system of the whole universe, if the mass of the universe scales with the effective radius or extent of the universe. A reanalysis of Thirring’s derivations still reveals this astonishing result, and thus the general question must be posed: how serious this result has to be taken with respect to cosmological implications. As we will show, the equivalence principle is, in fact, fulfilled by a universe with vanishing curvature, i.e. with a curvature parameter, which just has the critical density , where is the Hubble constant. It turns out, however, that this principle can only permanently be fulfilled in an evolving cosmos, if the cosmic mass density, different from its conventional behaviour, varies with the reciprocal of the squared cosmic scale. This, in fact, would automatically be realized, if the mass of each cosmic particle scales with the scale of the universe. The latter fact, on one hand, is a field-theoretical request from a general relativistic field theory which fulfills H. Weyl’s requirement of a conformal scale invariance. On the other hand, it can perhaps also be concluded on purely physical grounds, when taking into account that as source of the cosmic metrics only an effective mass density can be taken. This mass density represents the bare mass density reduced by its mass equivalent of gravitational self-binding energy. Some interesting cosmological conclusions connected with this fact are pointed out in this paper.     

渗透法处理高盐废水的原理及工艺

高浓度含盐废水的主要处理方法有反渗透、离子交换、蒸馏等，目前处理成本比较高。为改变当前高盐废水处理成本居高不下的现状，受渗透的基本原理启发，以分析渗透法处理高盐废水的基本原理为基础，提出渗透法处理高盐废水的新工艺。以溶质氨的设计溶液为例，分析高盐废水处理的新工艺流程及工艺的可行性，井对比反渗透工艺，详细阐述新工艺的特点。经计算分析认为。基于渗透原理的高盐废水处理工艺可降低高盐废水的处理成本，可作为高含盐废水处理方法的一个新的研究方向。     

基于主成分分析法的黄河口及其邻近水域水质评价

于2013年6、7、10月在黄河口及邻近水域进行了3个航次的环境调查,获取了盐度、营养盐、COD及重金属等指标数据,利用主成分分析法(PCA)研究该海域的水质状况,并分析影响该海域水质的主要驱动因子.结果表明:应用主成分分析将14项调查指标转换提取为4种主成分,共解释了67.31%的结果.相关分析表明,影响该水域水质的主要驱动因子为氮营养盐、盐度、SiO32--Si和砷.主成分综合得分分析表明,黄河口及邻近水域2013年10月、7月、6月水质污染状况依次降低;空间上总体呈现出以黄河入海口为中心,向邻近海域递减,河口附近及南部水域污染较严重的格局.黄河径流污染物是主要污染源,应加强黄河口及其上游的水环境保护,从而改善黄河口及邻近水域水质状况.     

基于主成分分析法的危险货物运输企业安全评价

为更准确地评估危险货物运输企业安全等级以降低其运输风险,提出基于主成分分析法(PCA)的危险货物运输企业BP神经网络安全评价模型;在从人-机-物-环境-管理角度构建危险货物运输企业安全评价指标的基础上,分别利用该模型和其他3种模型对3家实例企业进行仿真评价和对比分析。结果表明,该模型的评价结果与期望值间的相对误差约为0.5%～1.2%,计算精度优于其他模型,且具有计算量小等特点。     

Forest growth in the light of the thermodynamic theory of ecological systems

The observed growth of a particular forest stand can be described by many models and explained by some of them. The forest growth models are also successfully applied for extrapolating the growth curve. However, the known models of forest growth are not “one-point” models. They are not designed to predict the future growth of a forest stand from its current state: the model parameters either are not directly measurable or cannot be measured with relevant accuracy. This article is an attempt to use Jørgensen–Svirezhev theory as a new clue to the choice of variables that determines forest growth. The postulates of this theory combined with the pipe theory of tree growth lead to conclusion that biomass of a stand should be proportional to the four-fifths power of its age. Empirical validation, however, disclosed that calendar age is rather approximate measure of ecosystem ontogeny. Delayed development or intensive thinning of a forest stand at the early stages leads to rejuvenation bias. Thus derived 4/5-law model approximates well-known Chapman–Richards model in the neighborhood of the inflection point, and is applicable to middle-aged forest stands.