FRACTIONAL DIFFERENCING MODELING IN HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Fractional differencing is a tool for modeling time series which have long-term dependence; i.e., series in which the correlation between distant observations, though small, is not negligible. Fractionally differenced ARIMA models are formed by permitting the differencing parameter d in the familiar Box-Jenkins ARIMA(p, d, q) models to take nonintegral values; they permit the simultaneous modeling of the long-term and short-term behavior of an observed time series. This paper discusses the usefulness of fractional differencing to time-series modeling, with emphasis on hydrologic applications. A methodology for fitting fractionally differenced ARIMA models is described, and examples are presented.     

AN EVALUATION OF WEEKLY AND MONTHLY TIME SERIES FORECASTS OF MUNICIPAL WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data.     

Analysis of the recycling system for aluminum cans,focusing on collection,transportation, and the intermediate processing methods

In this article, the systems for the collection and intermediate processing of used beverage cans (UBCs) are compared and analyzed, focusing on the time taken and the cost of processing, the energy consumption, and the emissions of CO₂, SO _x , and NO _x , during the process. We found that cases where the UBCs were crushed in the discharging process gave better results, and how the UBCs were collected was the most important factor. It was more desirable to treat UBCs in one place than in two places. When the transportation distance was longer, the pressed form of UBCs was more convenient. When the transportation distance was short, the original form, the crushed form, and the shredded form of UBCs were all suitable. That is, the contribution of the transportation process to the evaluation was large when the transport distance was long, and the contribution of the treatment process was large when the transport distance was short.     

"一退两还"中的博弈分析与制度创新

“一退两还”即“退耕还林还草”，是我国政府在世纪之交所作出的一项旨在推进国民经济可持续发展的战略举措。本文运用博弈论的方法，通过对“一退两还”中的各个相关主体利益的思考和行为的辨析，结合分析结论，提出了对提高“一退两还”实施效果具有重要意义的制度创新思路。     

基于证书权威(CA)中心的时间戳服务系统的实现

介绍了数字签名不具有抗抵赖的问题 ,以及数据抗抵赖在信息安全中的重要性。在对原有的时间戳协议缺乏可靠的身份认证和可信性分析后 ,提出了一种新的基于证书权威 (CA)中心的时间戳服务协议。利用CA中心的信任原理和数字证书的身份认证作用 ,使提供时间戳服务的服务方具备了可靠的身份鉴别和可信性。并利用XML标记对时间戳的数据内容进行描述 ,形成简单、直观的时间戳 ,且无需复杂的编解码过程。通过正确和可信的时间戳可以判定用户数据产生的时间 ,防止用户事后的抵赖行为 ,为网络应用提供更为安全的数据。     

Effect on fatality risk of changing from secondary to primary seat belt enforcement

BACKGROUND: Most seat belt use laws originally passed in the United States contained language restricting enforcement to drivers already stopped for some other reason. States that have since removed this secondary enforcement restriction have reported increased seat belt use. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the effect of these law changes on driver fatality rates. METHOD: Trends in passenger vehicle driver death rates per billion miles traveled were compared for 10 states that changed from secondary to primary seat belt enforcement and 14 states that remained with secondary enforcement. RESULTS: After accounting for possible economic effects and other general time trends, the change from secondary to primary enforcement was found to reduce annual passenger vehicle driver death rates by an estimated 7% (95% confidence limits 3.0-10.9). CONCLUSION: The majority of U.S. states still have secondary enforcement laws. If these remaining secondary laws were amended, an estimated 696 deaths per year could be prevented.     

人口与经济发展对植被的影响研究

植被是陆地表面主要的覆盖物,也是许多地球系统过程的重要变量。人类活动对植被的影响在区域尺度上是显著的。以重庆市为例,使用滑动平均和SG滤波对SPOT/VGT NDVI时间序列数据进行了平滑处理,结合GDP和人口栅格化数据,从时间序列和空间相关场两个方面分析了植被与人类活动因子之间的时空相关性。结果表明,从1998到2005年,植被的分布和生长状况并没有随GDP和人口的持续增加而增加。在时间序列上,植被覆盖与GDP和人口之间总体上呈显著的负相关关系;在空间上,这种相关关系表现出了较强的异质性。空间相关场表明：较强的负相关主要发生在相对发达的主城区周围,反映了快速的经济发展和城市化使得植被面积和生产力降低;然而在偏远的山区,由于经济落后同时植被覆盖较少,出现了正相关。     

紫外光谱结合正交试验设计同时测定水中苯系物

利用正交试验设计,以光谱预处理、特征筛选及多元校正方法为考察因素,每个因素的4种不同方法为水平,确定了水中3种苯系物（苯酚、苯胺及苯甲酸）紫外光谱数据的最佳分析方法,从而建立了其定量校正模型。对于苯酚、苯胺及苯甲酸,其光谱预处理、特征筛选及多元校正分别采用一阶导数+无信息变量消除法（UVE）+偏最小二乘回归（PLSR）,Savitzky-Golay平滑+变量结合种群分析法（VCPA）+PLSR,Savitzky-Golay平滑+移动窗口偏最小二乘法（MWPLS）+PLSR。在独立测试集上3组分的预测误差均方根（RMSEP）分别为0.809 4、0.796 3和0.945 4。水样加标回收实验的回收率为97.79%~103.84%,相对标准偏差（RSD）小于3%。该方法可作为一种同时测定水中苯系物的简便有效方法。     

泵串联水灭火系统在森林防火方面的应用

现阶段为了适应国际及国内防火形势,出现了以水灭火为主要形式的灭火方式,并且在实际灭火中体现出巨大的优势.其中泵串联水灭火就是一种很好的形式.林海集团设计了一套远距离接力水泵串联供水灭火系统,尝试以手抬水泵(消防泵)接力供水的方式,从有水源的地方经过消防泵的增压,通过消防水带输送到火场,为水灭火工作提供条件,以实现水灭火.