苯系物事故应急救援避免环境污染的对策探讨

分析了在苯系物事故应急救援中,苯系物事故应急救援对环境造成的影响,提出了避免造成环境污染的对策。     

贵州普定陈旗喀斯特泉的降雨-径流响应特征分析

本文以贵州省普定县陈旗喀斯特泉流量为研究对象,采用相关分析和谱分析方法,分析降雨-出口泉流量的响应特征,统计结果表明,该喀斯特流域出口处泉流量对降雨表现出三种响应滞时,分别为短时段、中等时段和长时段响应。对应的响应滞时长度分别为2~4 h、47~49 h和176~290 h。对比流域山坡上部和坡脚两处降雨-泉流量响应特征,结合野外水文地质调查与实验,分析了表层岩溶带发育厚度、多重裂隙渗透性等水文地质条件对降雨-泉流量响应特征的影响机制。山坡上部表层岩溶带厚度较薄,且表层裂隙更为发育,导致山坡上部泉对降雨的响应更迅速,各时段滞时均小于全流域对应时段滞时。     

Trade-offs between time, predation risk and life history, and their implications for biogeography: A systems modelling approach with a primate case study

Group sizes are often considered to be the result of a trade-off between predation risk and the costs of feeding competition. We develop a model to explore the interaction between different ecological constraints on group sizes, using a primate (baboons) case study. The model uses climatic correlates of time budgets to predict maximum ecologically tolerable group size, and climatic predictors of predation risk (reflected mainly in predator density and female body mass) to predict minimum tolerable group size for any given habitat. As well as defining the range of sustainable group sizes for a given habitat, the model also allows us to reliably predict our exemplar taxon's biogeographical distribution across Africa. We also explore the life history implications of the model to ask whether baboons form group sizes which maximise survival or fecundity in the classic trade off between these two key life history variables. Our results indicate that, within the range of study sites in our sample, baboons prefer to maximise fecundity. However, the data indicate that in higher predation risk habitats they would switch to maximising survival at the expense of fecundity. We argue that this is due to the fact that interbirth interval and developmental rates have a ceiling that cannot be breached. Thus, while females can shorten interbirth intervals to compensate for increased predation risk, there is a limit to how much these life history variables can be altered, and when this is reached the best strategy is to maximise survivorship.     

滑坡灾害监测与预测时序分析

本文提出了一种边坡滑坡时序建模预测分析方法,以AR模型为例,探讨了时序建模及其预报的基本思想,最后用AR模型对清江电站进口边坡406阻滑键监测数据建模及预报,取得了一定的成果.     

PROBLEMS IN FORECASTING WATER REQUIREMENTS1

ABSTRACT. Methodological problems associated with forecasting water requirements by use of regression analysis are examined. Problems occurring when long-range forecasts are based on linear and nonlinear extrapolation of time series models include possible changes in socioeconomic conditions, water allocation system structure, and limits to growth. Problems arising in forecasting based on multiple regression models are likely to involve serially dependent errors, multicollinear explanatory variables, and difficulties inherent to the presence of explanatory variables that must themselves be predicted.     

ESTIMATING ANNUAL FLOOD PROBABILITIES USING FOURIER SERIES METHOD1

ABSTRACT: The Fourier series method is proposed as a feasible non-parametric approach for the estimation of the density and distribution functions of annual floods. Clearly, the goodness of fit to empirical data improves as higher Fourier terms are incorporated, and the choice of a higher term depends on whether the inclusion of this term will reduce the fitting error to within a specified tolerance level. This method was applied to the flood data from eight rivers, and to data simulated from known distributions. The results are clearly better than other parametric methods, just like other non-parametric techniques currently used to estimate annual flood probabilities.     

FOURIER INFERENCE: SOME METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF ARRAY AND NONGAUSSIAN SERIES DATA1

Fourier inference is a collection of analytic techniques and philosophic attitudes, for the analysis of data, wherein essential use is made of empirical Fourier transforms. This paper sets down some basic results concerning the finite Fourier transforms of stationary process data and then, to illustrate the approach, uses those results to develop procedures for: 1) estimating cloud and storm motion, 2) passive sonar and 3) fitting finite parameter models to nonGaussian time series via bispectral fitting. This last procedure is illustrated by an analysis of a stretch of Mississippi River runoff data. Examples 1), 2) refer to data having the form Y(x_j, y_j, t) for j = 1, …, J and t = 0, …, T-l say, and view that data as part of a realization of a spatial-temporal process. Such data has become common in geophysics generally and in hydrology particularly. The goal of this paper is to present some new statistical procedures pertinent to problems in the water sciences, equally it is to illustrate the genesis of those procedures and how their properties may be approximated.     

PARAMETRIC/NONPARAMETRIC MIXTURE DENSITY ESTIMATION WITH APPLICATION TO FLOOD-FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

Much attention has been invested in the model choice problem for peak annual flows, in the context of flood frequency analysis. The authors would sidestep this dilemma through non-parametric density estimation methodology, but recognize that the standard nonparametric estimators preclude the use of prior information and related data, and furthermore have virtually no tail at all. Here we offer a remedy for these inadequacies by introducing an estimator which mixes parametric and nonparametric density estimates. We prove that our mixture rule is consistent. By this procedure, we do allow incorporation of prior information, experience, and regional data information, but nevertheless provide a safeguard against incorrect model choice.     

PAST AND FUTURE OF ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCES TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: water resources supply and demand time series consist of several or all of the four basic characteristics: tendency, intermittency, periodicity and stochasticity. Their importance changes from one type of variables to another. Historic developments of analysis of time series in hydrology have varied significantly over the past, from the stress on search for periodicities and persistence in annual series to the emphasis on the series stochastic properties. Supply and demand series are often highly interrelated, which fact is most often neglected in planning water resources systems in general, and water storage capacities in particular. The future of series analysis in water resources will likely be by a joint use of physically-based structural analysis and the use of advanced methods of treating data by stochastic processes, statistical estimation and inference techniques. The most intriguing challenge of the future of this analysis may be the treatment of nonnormal, nonlinear and in general nonstationary hydrologic and water use time series. The proper treatment of complex multivariate processes will also challenge the specialists, especially for the purposes of transfer of information between data on variables at given points, or between data at several points of a given variable, or both.     

Synchronous variation in water chemistry for 80 lakes in Southern Sweden

Variation in water chemistry was studied in 80 lakes in southern Sweden. The lakes had forest dominated catchments. The length of the time series was 14 years. Synchrony was calculated as Pearsons product moment correlation coefficients for all combinations of lakes, i.e. 3160 lake-pairs. The chemical variables studied were non-marine sulphate (SO₄ ^*), non-marine calcium (Ca^*), absorbance and acid neutralising capacity (ANC). Statistically significant synchrony occurred in 93% of all lake-pairs for SO₄ ^*, and between 58 and 67% for absorbance, Ca^* and ANC. In 70% of all lake-pairs, the synchrony was \s>0.71 for SO₄ ^*, which means that more than half of the variation in one lake could be explained by the variation in the other lake. For absorbance, Ca^* and ANC, about 25% of the lake-pairs had a synchrony \s>0.71. The relatively high synchrony for SO₄ ^* occurred during an overall downward trend in SO₄ ^* concentration.The degree of synchrony in our study was at a level comparable to other studies in northern America and England. However, our study included lakes in a much larger area, with distances of up to 500 km between the lakes, while earlier studies were made on small lake districts with lakes located within approximately 50 km. In contrast to these earlier studies, there was no correlation between synchrony and distance, lake characteristics or catchment characteristics. However, when a small subset of 15 lakes in the southeast of Sweden was selected, such relations were found.