时间序列模型在火警短期预测中的应用

基于某市的119火警数据,采用时间序列模型中的ARIMA算法进行了分析.计算结果表明,该市119火警数据的天序列服从ARIMA(0,1,2)模型,周序列服从ARIMA(1,0,0)模型.从模型对数据的拟合效果来看,ARIMA模型较为准确的反映了数据序列的发展趋势.采用这两种模型对数据序列分别进行了短期的预测,其预测值与实际结果在趋势上基本一致,研究表明采用周序列预测的效果要好于天序列.基于时序模型的火警预测方法是实现时火灾应急处置中关口前移的重要措施.     

FTABLE Generation Method Effects on Instream Fecal Bacteria Concentrations Simulated With HSPF1

Abstract: Computer simulation models are used extensively for the development of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). Specifically, the Hydrological Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF) is used in Virginia for the development of TMDLs for bacteria impairments. HSPF estimates discharge from a reach using function tables (FTABLES). The FTABLE relates stream stage, surface area, and volume to discharge from a reach. In this study, five FTABLE estimation methods were assessed by comparing their effect on various simulation outputs. Four “field‐based” methods used detailed cross‐sectional data collected via site surveys. A fifth “digital‐based” method used digital elevation data in combination with the Natural Resources Conservation Service Regional Hydraulic Geometry Curves. Sets of FTABLEs created using each method were used in simulations of instream bacteria concentration for a Virginia watershed. Several statistics relating to instream bacteria including long‐term average concentration, die‐off, and the violation rate of Virginia’s bacteria criterion were compared. The pair‐wise Student’s t‐test was used for the comparison. The HSPF simulations that used FTABLES estimated from digitally based data consistently produced significantly higher long‐term average instream fecal bacteria concentrations, significantly lower instream fecal bacteria die‐off, which is related to differences in residence time in the streams, and significantly higher water quality criterion violation rates.     

Effective Long-term Ecological Monitoring Using Spatially and Temporally Nested Sampling

Effective environmental management requires documentation of ecosystem status and changes to that status. Without long-term data, short-term natural variability can mask chronic and/or cumulative impacts, often until critical levels are reached. However, a trade-off generally occurs between sampling in space and time. This study analyses a spatially and temporally nested long-term (12 years) monitoring programme conducted on benthic macrofauna in a large harbour. Sampling was carried out at six sites for 5.5 years, after which only two sites were sampled for the next 5 years. After this period, all six sites were sampled for another 2 years. While ecology is frequently thought of being highly variable, this design was able to detect trends, and cycles, in abundance, with only around 10% of species at each site exhibiting unpredictable temporal variability. Sites exhibiting similar trends in the abundance of a species over the 12.5-year period were generally spatially contiguous, and the spatial scale of change could be assessed. Continuous sampling at two sites identified whether changes in unsampled sites were related to long-term cycles. Moreover, this sampling provided a long-term background of temporal fluctuations against which to assess the ecological significance of observed changes.     

连云港市大气污染物时间序列的长程相关性分析

运用R/S分析(Rescaled Range Analysis)方法对连云港市3个大气环境定位监测点近10年来的SO2、NOx和TSP序列数据进行了时间序列的长程相关性分析.结果表明,连云港市SO2、NOx和TSP月均值序列的Hurst指数在0.500～1.000,表现出明显的长程相关性,并且这种相关性程度的强弱随着城市功能区的不同而表现出一定的差异.研究结果对于认识连云港市城市大气环境质量变化过程和科学制定环保决策具有重要意义.     

Characteristics of Cajander Larch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Larix cajanderi</Emphasis> Mayr) on Dredging Waste Dumps in the Amur Region

Former dredging sites were studied in the taiga zone of the Amur region (in Khabarovsk Krai). The involvement of Larix cajanderi in plant succession on dredging waste dumps was revealed. Some morphological-anatomical parameters of L. cajanderi needles were compared in trees growing on the dumps and in adjacent open larch stands on waterlogged peaty soils.__________Translated from Ekologiya, No. 4, 2005, pp. 259–263.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Osipov, Burundukova.     

Plant phenology in Germany over the 20th century

Analysis of observational phenological data has indicated that the length of the vegetation period (VP), here defined as the time between leaf onset and leaf colouring (LC), has increased in the last decades in the northern latitudes mainly due to an advancement of bud burst. Analysing the patterns of spring phenology over the last century (1880–1999) in Southern Germany showed that the strong advancement of spring phases, especially in the decade before 1999, is not a singular event in the course of the 20th century. Similar trends were also observed in earlier decades. Distinct periods of varying trend direction for important spring phases could be distinguished. Marked differences in trend direction between early and late spring phases were detected, which can be explained by different trends in March and April mean temperatures. The advancement of spring phenology in recent decades is part of the multi-decadal fluctuations over the 20th century that vary with the species and the relevant seasonal temperatures. However, for all Natural Regions in Germany, spring phases were advanced by about 5–20 days on average between 1951 and 1999, LC was delayed between 1951 and 1984, but advanced after 1984 for all considered tree species and the length of the VP increased between 1951 and 1999 for all considered tree species by an average of 10 days throughout Germany.     

Municipal solid waste production and composition in Finland—Changes in the period 1960–2002 and prospects until 2020

Waste reduction was recognised as the main goal of waste management policy in the EU in the 1990s. Although knowledge of past waste generation is essential for effective waste reduction policy there are no comprehensive statistics on the past development of municipal solid waste (MSW) production. MSW management is currently under turmoil in many EU countries as the requirements of the EC landfill directive (1999/31/EC) are set into force. In this study, the production and composition of MSW in Finland between 1960 and 2002 is presented using historical data. The impact of population, affluence and technology on MSW production are analysed using the IPAT equation and three scenarios are constructed until year 2020. The results are compared with national future targets on MSW production. Production of MSW increased in Finland until 1990, declined to year 1997, increased to 2000 and then declined again. The share of organic and plastic waste increased over the study period while the share of paper and cardboard declined. The results suggest that so far national targets on MSW reduction have been set fairly low. Moreover, our scenarios depict a wide range of future MSW production, even though the time horizon is not longer than 15 years into the future. In order to narrow this range, continuous improvement of the statistics of MSW is essential.     

Individual changes in human EEG caused by 450 MHz microwave modulated at 40 and 70 Hz

This study was aimed to investigate the changes in the human electroencephalographic (EEG) signal caused by modulated low-level microwaves. The 450 MHz microwave exposure modulated at 40 Hz and 70 Hz frequencies was applied to a group of 15 volunteers. The field power density at the scalp was 0.16 mW/cm². Ten cycles of the exposure (1 min on and 1 min off) at both modulation frequencies were applied. Analysis of the EEG signal was performed using three different methods: nonlinear method of scaling analysis for length distribution of low variability periods (LDLVP), relative changes in EEG energy (S-parameter) and beta ratio (H-parameter). The analysis revealed significant changes caused by microwave for the whole group (H-parameter method). The exposure caused increase of the EEG beta power (S-parameter method). Statistically significant changes in EEG were detected for four subjects (26.7%) at 40 Hz modulation frequency (LDLVP method).     

关联维数在机械设备故障诊断中的应用研究

研究了混沌与分形的特征参数———关联维数的计算方法和参数的选择。以滚动轴承在正常、外圈故障、滚动体故障、内圈故障4种状态下的信号特征为标准样本,以其运行的实测信号为例,对时域信号进行了频谱分析,并进一步进行了关联维数分析。通过对滚动轴承振动信号的关联维数分析,证明了该轴承在4种不同标准状态下具有明显不同的关联维数特征。因此,按照相关性的大小,就可诊断出实测信号属于外圈故障状态信号。研究结果表明,关联维数分析方法在设备状态监测与故障诊断中,尤其是在非线性系统的故障诊断中显示出其独特的优势,具有较为广阔的应用前景。     

时变条件下的有害物品运输的人口风险分析

随着工业的发展 ,有害物品运输量在逐年增加 ,有害物品对于人类威胁也在加大 ,有害物品运输的风险问题受到了广泛的关注。由于有害物品运输中 ,路径周围的人口密度随着时间的变化而变化 ,进而影响在运输过程中的人口风险。笔者在有时变情况下 ,对有害物品运输人口风险进行了分析 ;建立了估计人口风险的模型 ;获得了有害物品运输中的最小人口风险以及最佳出发时间 ;进一步完善了有害物品的运输的风险分析 ;为如何减少有害物品运输的人口风险提供了依据。