Identifying crash type propensity using real-time traffic data on freeways

Introduction: We examine the effects of various traffic parameters on type of road crash. Method: Multivariate probit models are specified on 4-years of data from the A4-A86 highway section in the Ile-de-France region, France. Results: Empirical findings indicate that crash type can almost exclusively be defined by the prevailing traffic conditions shortly before its occurrence. Rear-end crashes involving two vehicles were found to be more probable for relatively low values of both speed and density, rear-end crashes involving more than two vehicles appear to be more probable under congested conditions, while single-vehicle crashes appear to be largely geometry-dependent. Impact on Industry: Results could be integrated in a real-time traffic management application.     

Task type as a moderator of positive/negative feedback effects on motivation and performance: A regulatory focus perspective

Applying Higgins' regulatory focus theory, we hypothesized that the effect of positive/negative feedback on motivation and performance is moderated by task type, which is argued to be an antecedent to situational regulatory focus (promotion or prevention). Thus, first we demonstrated that some tasks (e.g., tasks requiring creativity) are perceived as promotion tasks, whereas others (e.g., those requiring vigilance and attention to detail) are perceived as prevention tasks. Second, as expected, our tests in two studies of the moderation hypothesis showed that positive feedback increased self‐reported motivation (meta‐analysis across samples: N = 315, d = 0.43) and actual performance (N = 55, d = 0.67) among people working on promotion tasks, relative to negative feedback. Positive feedback, however, decreased motivation (N = 318, d = ?0.33) and performance (N = 55, d = ?0.37) among individuals working on prevention tasks, relative to negative feedback. These findings suggest that (a) performance of different tasks can affect regulatory focus and (b) variability in positive/negative feedback effects can be partially explained by regulatory focus and task type. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

内蒙古中西部地区土壤紧实度初步研究

沙尘暴的发生与沙尘暴源地的下垫面状况密不可分,下垫面要素中土壤紧实度等地表状况指标是沙尘暴灾害下垫面因子的危险度研究的重要内容。选取沙尘暴源地的内蒙古中西部地区为研究区域,于2004年4月进行了土壤紧实度实地采样,对获取的36个采样点的数据进行了统计分析,发现在不同的植被覆盖类型下,地表的土壤紧实度值具有明显的分异特征和分布范围。以1∶10万的内蒙古土地利用类型图为依托进行重分类,对研究区域的土壤紧实度值进行空间上的了反演。并通过2009年第二次实地采样对该反演的精度进行了验证,排除干扰因素后,发现土壤紧实度的反演结果良好,因此可以获得空间范围上土壤紧实度的一个粗略范围值。研究结果可为日后进行土壤紧实度对沙尘暴的影响和贡献等级划分以及沙尘暴下垫面脆弱性风险评估和区划提供数据支持。     

Evaluating weather effects on interannual variation in net ecosystem productivity of a coastal temperate forest landscape: A model intercomparison

Forest productivity is strongly affected by seasonal weather patterns and by natural or anthropogenic disturbances. However weather effects on forest productivity are not currently represented in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3 used in national forest C accounting programs. To evaluate different approaches to modelling these effects, a model intercomparison was conducted among CBM-CFS3 and four process models (ecosys, CN-CLASS, Can-IBIS and 3PG) over a 2500 ha landscape in the Oyster River (OR) area of British Columbia, Canada. The process models used local weather data to simulate net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and net biome productivity (NBP) from 1920 to 2005. Other inputs used by the process and inventory models were generated from soil, land cover and disturbance records. During a period of intense disturbance from 1928 to 1943, simulated NBP diverged considerably among the models. This divergence was attributed to differences among models in the sizes of detrital and humus C stocks in different soil layers to which a uniform set of soil C transformation coefficients was applied during disturbances. After the disturbance period, divergence in modelled NBP among models was much smaller, and attributed mainly to differences in simulated NPP caused by different approaches to modelling weather effects on productivity. In spite of these differences, age-detrended variation in annual NPP and NEP of closed canopy forest stands was negatively correlated with mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September (T_amax) in all process models (R² = 0.4-0.6), indicating that these correlations were robust. The negative correlation between T_amax and NEP was attributed to different processes in different models, which were tested by comparing CO₂ fluxes from these models with those measured by eddy covariance (EC) under contrasting air temperatures (T_a). The general agreement in sensitivity of annual NPP to T_amax among the process models led to the development of a generalized algorithm for weather effects on NPP of coastal temperate coniferous forests for use in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3: NPP′ = NPP − 57.1 (T_amax − 18.6), where NPP and NPP′ are the current and temperature-adjusted annual NPP estimates from the inventory-based model, 18.6 is the long-term mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September, and T_amax is the mean value for the current year. Our analysis indicated that the sensitivity of NPP to T_amax was nonlinear, so that this algorithm should not be extrapolated beyond the conditions of this study. However the process-based methodology to estimate weather effects on NPP and NEP developed in this study is widely applicable to other forest types and may be adopted for other inventory based forest carbon cycle models.     

A spatially explicit estimate of avoided forest loss

With the potential expansion of forest conservation programs spurred by climate-change agreements, there is a need to measure the extent to which such programs achieve their intended results. Conventional methods for evaluating conservation impact tend to be biased because they do not compare like areas or account for spatial relations. We assessed the effect of a conservation initiative that combined designation of protected areas with payments for environmental services to conserve over wintering habitat for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in Mexico. To do so, we used a spatial-matching estimator that matches covariates among polygons and their neighbors. We measured avoided forest loss (avoided disturbance and deforestation) by comparing forest cover on protected and unprotected lands that were similar in terms of accessibility, governance, and forest type. Whereas conventional estimates of avoided forest loss suggest that conservation initiatives did not protect forest cover, we found evidence that the conservation measures are preserving forest cover. We found that the conservation measures protected between 200 ha and 710 ha (3-16%) of forest that is high-quality habitat for monarch butterflies, but had a smaller effect on total forest cover, preserving between 0 ha and 200 ha (0-2.5%) of forest with canopy cover >70%. We suggest that future estimates of avoided forest loss be analyzed spatially to account for how forest loss occurs across the landscape. Given the forthcoming demand from donors and carbon financiers for estimates of avoided forest loss, we anticipate our methods and results will contribute to future studies that estimate the outcome of conservation efforts.     

缙云山4种森林植被土壤团聚体有机碳分布特征

以重庆市缙云山的竹林、阔叶林、针叶林和针阔叶混交林这4种亚热带森林植被为研究对象,分析不同林分下土壤团聚体及团聚体有机碳在0～20、20～40、40～60和60～100 cm土壤剖面上的分布规律.结果表明,阔叶林土壤 2 mm粒级团聚体含量、平均重量直径(MWD)、几何平均直径(GMD)及 0. 25 mm团聚体含量(R0. 25)均随土层深度的增加而降低,而其他林分在整个土层中则无明显规律.在各土层中,竹林以 2 mm粒级团聚体为主(30. 73%～53. 08%);阔叶林和混交林的2～0. 25 mm粒级团聚体含量较高,为36. 27%～44. 67%和48. 69%～52. 44%;针叶林的优势粒径为2～0. 25 mm和0. 053 mm.总体上,在各土层中,竹林团聚体的MWD、GMD、R0. 25值均高于其他林分,且其分形维数(D)低于其他林分,可见竹林的土壤团聚体稳定性较好.随着土层深度的增加,不同林分(除针叶林外)土壤团聚体有机碳含量逐渐降低,其中竹林团聚体有机碳含量最高,显著高于针叶林和混交林.就不同团聚体粒级而言,4种林分土壤团聚体有机碳在整个土壤剖面上无明显规律,但各土层均以2～0. 25 mm和0. 053 mm粒级团聚体有机碳含量较高.不同林分下土壤团聚体有机碳相对贡献率存在显著差异,其中针叶林中0. 053 mm粒级团聚体有机碳贡献率最高;竹林的 2 mm粒级团聚体有机碳贡献率高达27. 44%～53. 47%;而阔叶林和混交林则以2～0. 25 mm粒级团聚体有机碳贡献率最高.缙云山的4种林分中,竹林的土壤团聚体稳定性较好,而针叶林的较差;在各土层中,竹林土壤各粒级团聚体有机碳含量最高,针叶林最低.     

2012年国内外石油化工行业事故统计分析

按照事故级别、所属板块、事故类型、事故时间、涉及的化学品、发生国家,对2011年和2012年国内外石油化工行业发生的死亡1人以上的事故进行了统计分析,研究了事故动态和趋势.结果表明:重特大事故呈上升态势,具有“小概率、大后果”的特点;事故涉及的化学品种类很集中;我国伤亡事故金字塔呈现出“底部小、形状陡”的特点;死亡人数/起数比值与经济发展水平有关;爆炸事故的起数和死亡人数最高,事故起数增幅较大,火灾事故起数增幅不大,但死亡人数有大幅度增加,泄漏事故和其他事故的起数、死亡人数均有所降低.根据统计分析的结果,从加强未遂事件管理、引进OSHA绩效考核机制、加强危险品运输和化工企业安全监管、加大安全投入和提升安全技术装备水平等方面提出了建议措施.对研究国内外石化行业的事故动向,从整体上防范事故发生,具有重要的指导意义.     

Prenatal diagnosis of charcot-marie-tooth disease type 1a (CMT1A) using molecular genetic techniques

Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 1A (CMT1A) is a frequent hereditary motor and sensory neuropathy of the peripheral nerves. In most cases, the disease is associated with a 1.5 Mb tandem duplication at 17p11.2. A 42-year-old pregnant woman requested prenatal diagnosis because of her age and since both her husband and two children were severely affected with CMT1. The CMT1A duplication was demonstrated in the father's, the two children's, and the fetus's DNA using different molecular genetic methods. Although cytogenetical analysis showed a normal female karyotype in the fetus, the parents decided to terminate the pregnancy because of the genetic risk associated with the CMT1A duplication.     

Metaphyseal chondrodysplasia McKusick type in a Chinese fetus,caused by novel compound heterozygosity 64T> A and 79G >T in RMRPgene

We present the first confirmed case by molecular analysis of a metaphyseal chondrodysplasia, McKusick type, in a 22-week fetus. Two novel compound heterozygous mutations, 64T> A and 79G > T, were found in the highly conserved regions of the RMRP gene. Twenty-two heterozygous g.1018 T> C mutations, two homozygous g.1018 T> C mutations, two heterozygous insertion mutations g.799_g.800insC and one heterozygous insertion mutation g.849_g.850insT were found among 100 normal controls. Careful radiological examination of the fetus for skeletal dysplasia allowed definitive diagnosis, proper genetic counselling and future prenatal diagnosis. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A botanical importance rating system for estuaries

In many semi-arid areas, estuaries are threatened because of freshwater impoundment. Estuaries are important sites for ecological diversity and, increasingly, for recreation. A system has been developed which rates estuaries according to their botanical importance. A formula allows a single numerical importance score to be calculated. The area cover of each estuarine plant community type (i.e. intertidal salt marsh, submerged macrophytes, reed/sedge swamps and supratidal salt marsh) and its importance in the estuary forms the basis of the score. The ‘ecological condition’ of the plant community and the community richness within the estuary are incorporated into the formula. The formula is effective in determining the botanical importance of estuaries. Further methods to determine the zoological, physical and socio-economic importance of estuaries need to be developed to allow the overall importance of estuaries to be determined.