A DESCRIPTIVE MODEL FOR ANALYZING PROPOSED COST SHARING RATE CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: This article offers a procedure for identifying the primary effects of financing and cost sharing rates on four basic levels: program, technical, incidence, and comprehensive impacts. A process is developed for identifying these effects based upon two alternative approaches. One method would follow the effects of rate changes through the four levels of impact, another would look in depth at the consequences of rate changes on a particular impact. For this study the information and suggested changes found in the Section 80(c) Study were used to illustrate possible impacts. The process suggested herein could be used in anticipating impacts of any major policy change.     

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CALIFORNIA HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Previous reports based on climate change scenarios have suggested that California will be subjected to increased wintertime and decreased summertime streamflow. Due to the uncertainty of projections in future climate, a new range of potential climatological future temperature shifts and precipitation ratios is applied to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model and Anderson Snow Model in order to determine hydrologic sensitivities. Two general circulation models (GCMs) were used in this analysis: one that is warm and wet (HadCM2 run 1) and one that is cool and dry (PCM run B06.06), relative to the GCM projections for California that were part of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A set of specified incremental temperature shifts from 1.5°C to 5.0°C and precipitation ratios from 0.70 to 1.30 were also used as input to the snow and soil moisture accounting models, providing for additional scenarios (e.g., warm/dry, cool/wet). Hydrologic calculations were performed for a set of California river basins that extend from the coastal mountains and Sierra Nevada northern region to the southern Sierra Nevada region; these were applied to a water allocation analysis in a companion paper. Results indicate that for all snow‐producing cases, a larger proportion of the streamflow volume will occur earlier in the year. The amount and timing is dependent on the characteristics of each basin, particularly the elevation. Increased temperatures lead to a higher freezing line, therefore less snow accumulation and increased melting below the freezing height. The hydrologic response varies for each scenario, and the resulting solution set provides bounds to the range of possible change in streamflow, snowmelt, snow water equivalent, and the change in the magnitude of annual high flows. An important result that appears for all snowmelt driven runoff basins, is that late winter snow accumulation decreases by 50 percent toward the end of this century.     

DAM‐INDUCED MODIFICATIONS TO UPPER ALLEGHENY RIVER STREAMFLOW PATTERNS AND THEIR BIODIVERSITY IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: This study evaluates the streamflow characteristics of the upper Allegheny River during the periods preceding (1936 to 1965) and following (1966 to 1997) completion of the Kinzua Dam in northwestern Pennsylvania. Inter‐period trends in seasonal patterns of discharge and peak flow at three downstream sites are compared to those at two upstream sites to determine the influence of this large dam on surface water hydrology. Climatic records indicate that significant changes in annual total and seasonal precipitation occurred over the twentieth century. Increased runoff during the late summer through early winter led to increased discharge both upstream and downstream during these months, while slightly less early‐year rainfall produced minor reductions in spring flood peaks since 1966. The Kinzua Dam significantly enhanced these trends downstream, creating large reductions in peak flow, while greatly augmenting low flow during the growing season. This reduction in streamflow variability, coupled with other dam‐induced changes, has important biodiversity implications. The downstream riparian zone contains numerous threatened/endangered species, many of which are sensitive to the type of habitat modifications produced by the dam. Flood dynamics under the current post‐dam conditions are likely to compound the difficulties of maintaining their long‐term viability.     

MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACTS: THE ILLINOIS CASE1

ABSTRACT: Drought is an interaction between physical processes and human activities. This study quantified the impacts of precipitation deficiencies on streamflow, reservoirs, and shallow ground water supplies. An in-depth analysis of newspaper accounts of droughts between paired cities, one in drought and one not in drought, were used to measure the differences in the types of drought impacts, and in the time of onset of impacts as related to developing precipitation deficiencies. Precipitation deficiencies related to the onset and the magnitude of surface water supply adjustments, and to shallow ground water problems, were established. Thus, monitoring and prediction of the onset and magnitude of drought problems can now be done from readily available data on precipitation deficiencies. Newspapers were found to be reliable indicators for the timing of drought impacts and adjustments as precipitation deficiency develops. A review of local and state adjustments during two recent droughts revealed most decision makers lacked information and experience in dealing with drought.     

乐山市诱发地震的社会影响及对策

本文简述了健为县罗城镇的注水采盐诱发地震和沙湾区铜街子水库蓄水诱发地震的影响及对策。     

The nature of cumulative impacts on biotic diversity of wetland vertebrates

There is no longer any doubt that cumulative impacts have important effects on wetland vertebrates. Interactions of species diversity and community structure produce a complex pattern in which environmental impacts can play a highly significant role. Various examples show how wetlands maintain the biotic diversity within and among vertebrate populations, and some of the ways that environmental perturbations can interact to reduce this diversity.The trophic and habitat pyramids are useful organizing concepts. Habitat fragmentation can have severe effects at all levels, reducing the usable range of the larger habitat generalists while threatening the genetic integrity of small, isolated populations. The complexity of trophic interactions, and the propensity, or necessity, of vertebrates to switch from one food source to another—something we know little about—makes using food chain support as a variable for predicting environmental impacts very questionable.Historical instances illustrate the effects of the accumulation of impacts on vertebrates. At present it is nearly impossible to predict the result of three or more different kinds of perturbations, although long-range effects can be observed. One case in point is waterfowl; while their ingestion of lead shot, harvesting by hunters during migration, and loss of habitat have caused waterfowl populations to decline, the proportional responsibility of these factors has not been determined.Further examples show multiplicative effects of similar actions, effects with long time lags, diffuse processes in the landscape that may have concentrated effects on a component subsystem, and a variety of other interactions of increasing complexity. Not only is more information needed at all levels; impacts must be assessed on a landscape or regional scale to produce informed management decisions. I conclude that a system of replicate wetland reserves that are allowed to interact naturally with the surrounding landscape will be more effective in preserving biotic diversity than isolated sanctuaries.     

Development of information intensive agrichemical management services in wisconsin

This paper examines opportunities to improve the environmental and economic performance of cropping systems through intensified application of information in agrichemical management. Through intensified application of information, both net farm income and environmental quality may increase through more closely matching the specific needs of the crop with the type, timing, and volume of chemical inputs used in crop production. This study examines the current status and future prospect of agrichemical dealers offering information intensive agrichemical management services to producers. Agrichemical dealers are the focus of this study because: (1) farmers are perceived as ill-prepared to substantially upgrade the sophistication of their agrichemical management without off-farm support, and (2) dealers enjoy a close relationship with farmers, which potentially could be expanded to include a variety of information-based services. A mail survey was conducted of all agrichemical suppliers/applications in Wisconsin. The response rate was 76% (172 of 225). Substantial numbers of services were found to be offered by many dealers. The majority of these services were related to traditional yield-enhancement function. Services that have a greater potential to mitigate the negative environmental impacts of inefficient agrichemical use and have higher on-farm data requirements were found to be less widely offered by dealers. Analysis of constraints to further development of information-intensive services indicates that dealers offering significant numbers of services are concerned with constraints external to the dealership, while dealers offering relatively few services perceive internal constraints as most limiting. This relationship indicates that efforts to accelerate dealerships' development of information-intensive agrichemical management services should focus on specific constraints operating on targeted dealerships.     

Tourism impacts of Three Mile Island and other adverse events: Implications for Lincoln County and other rural counties bisected by radioactive wastes intended for Yucca Mountain

Whether the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository system will adversely impact tourism in southern Nevada is an open question of particular importance to visitor-oriented rural counties bisected by planned waste transportatin corridors (highway or rail). As part of one such county's repository impact assessment program, tourism implications of Three Mile Island (TMI) and other major hazard events have beem revisited to inform ongoing county-wide socioeconomic assessments and contingency planning efforts. This paper summarizes key research implications of such research as applied to Lincoln County, Nevada. Implications for other rural counties are discussed in light of the research findings.     

Capabilities and management utility of recreation impact monitoring programs

A recreation impact monitoring system was developed and applied in 1984–1986 and in 1991 to all backcountry river-accessed campsites within Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Results suggest that actions implemented by park managers in response to problems identified by the initial survey were highly effective in reducing resource degradation caused by camping. In particular, the elimination of some designated campsites and installation of anchored firegrates reduced the total area of disturbance by 50%. Firegrate installation provided a focal point that increased the concentration of camping activities, allowing peripheral areas to recover. As suggested by predictive models, additional resource degradation caused by increased camping intensities is more than offset by improvements in the condition of areas where use is eliminated. The capabilities and management utility of recreation impact monitoring programs, illustrated by the Delaware Water Gap monitoring program, are also presented and discussed.     

FECAL COLIFORM RELEASE FROM CATTLE FECAL DEPOSITS1

ABSTRACT: Cowpies molded to a standard configuration and size were subjected to simulated rainfall, and the fecal coliform counts were determined using the most probable number (MPN) method of enumeration. The standard cowpie deposits were exposed to simulated rainfall once at ages 2 through 100 days. The effects of rainfall intensity and recurrent rainfall were also tested. Naturally-occurring fecal deposits were also tested to compare their results with those from the standard cowpies. A log-log regression was found to describe the decline in peak fecal coliform release with fecal deposit age. The 100-day-old fecal deposits produced peak counts of 4,200 fecal coliform per 100 milliliters of water. This quantity of release is minimal compared to the release from fresher fecal material. Rainfall intensity had little effect on peak fecal coliform release from fecal deposits that were 2 or 10 days old. At age 20 days the effect of rainfall intensity was significant; the highest intensity gave the lowest peak counts, and the lowest intensity gave the highest peak counts. The effect of rainfall intensity appears to be related to the dryness of the fecal deposits. Peak fecal coliform counts were significantly lowered when the fecal deposits were rained on more than once. This decline was thought to be produced by the loss of bacteria from the fecal deposits during the previous wettings. Standard cowpies produced a peak release regression that was not significantly different from the regression for the natural fecal deposits. Apparently, grossly manipulating the fecal deposits did not significantly change the release patterns.