Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Vegetation of Wet Meadows in Relation to Their Land-use

Wetland biomonitoring approaches are needed to determine when changes in response to stressors are occurring and to predict the consequences of proposed land-use changes. These approaches require an understanding of shifts in biota that occur in response to land-use, data that are lacking for most kinds of wetlands. Changes in floristic composition corresponding to land-use differences at multiple scales (site to 2500 m radius) were characterized for 40 wet meadows associated with prairie glacial marshes in Minnesota (U.S.A.). In general, guild was more useful than species composition for indicating land-use impacts. Site impacts (stormwater, cultivation) and landscape disturbance (agriculture and urbanization, combined), coincide with a reduction in native graminoid and herbaceous perennial abundance (e.g., Carex lasiocarpa, Calamagrostis canadensis, Spartina pectinata). This vegetation is replaced with annuals (e.g, Bidens cernua, Polygonum pensylvanicum) in recently cultivated sites or introduced perennials (e.g., Phalaris arundinacea, Typha angustifolia) and floating aquatics (lemnids) in stormwater impacted wetlands. Ditches also reduce native perennial importance and increase perennials, but only when they are in highly impacted landscapes.     

Projected Climate Impacts for the Amphibians of the Western Hemisphere

Abstract: Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate‐change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted‐range species not included in our range‐shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted‐range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad‐scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.     

Changes in wetlands on nonfederal rural land of the conterminous United States from 1982 to 1987

Recent wetland area trends were estimated from the National Resources Inventory (NRI) for nonfederal rural lands for the period 1982–1987. NRI-based estimates of wetland area for states comprising the conterminous United States were highly correlated with estimates made by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and with estimates of coastal salt marsh wetlands made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Net wetland area declined by 1.1% (≈363,200 ha) during the five-year study period. Conversion to open water, primarily caused by natural flooding in western inland basins, was responsible for altering extensive wetland areas (≈171,400 ha). Of the human-induced wetland conversions, urban and built-up land was responsible for 48% of the wetland loss, while agricultural development was indicated in 37% of the converted wetland area. A decrease in rural land, and increases in both population, and urban and built-up land were associated with wetland loss among states. Potential reasons for wetland loss were different in 20 coastal states than in 28 inland states. Proportionately, wetland loss due to development was three times greater in coastal states than inland states, while agriculturally induced wetland losses were similar in both groups. The proportionate declines of forested vs nonforested wetlands were not significantly different among states.     

Evaluation of methods for determining adverse impacts of air pollution on terrestrial ecosystems

Methods used to determine adverse impacts of air pollution on four levels of biological organization of terrestrial ecosystems were evaluated for their use in decision making by federal land managers of class I areas and as guidelines for scientists employed to design field studies in these areas. At the level of the individual, visible injury, biomass, and sulfur uptake were the most often used components; at the population level, natality and mortality; at the community level, diversity; and at the ecosystem level, biogeochemical cycling. Most studies focused on structural responses of individual organisms. These components are relatively sensitive and are easy and inexpensive to measure; however, linkages of these parameters to adverse impacts on populations, communities, or ecosystems are lacking. Measurements of effects of air pollution at the higher levels of organization are confounded by natural variability, long response times, climatic variation, pathogens, and other factors. In addition, the lack of replication and of true control areas creates severe problems for design of monitoring programs and testing of hypotheses concerning effects.     

THE SOCIAL IMPACT OF RESERVOIR CONSTRUCTION IN THE URBAN FRINGE: A TEN-YEAR COMPARISON1

ABSTRACT This paper examines the social impact of reservoir construction on a rural community group located in the urban fringe of a major metropolitan area in central Ohio. The study data were collected at three intervals over a ten-year period (1970, 1974, 1980). Evaluation of resident opinions in the affected community revealed significant attitude differences over time for four of the five variables measured. The findings revealed that the study group desired more social stability but had accommodated the changes experienced to date. Responses to the attitude scales showed that the people in the study group were well integrated and were closely identified with each other at all three test periods. Attitudes toward the lake project were significantly more positive over time, and in 1980 the collective community group held a basically neutral attitude about the lake. The development agency was also perceived more positively over time.     

ECONOMIC RESOURCE MULTIPLIERS FOR REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Tradeoffs between regional economic development and resource use is a question often confronting local decisionmakers. A resource-interindustry model can be used to depict the interrelationships between regional economic sectors as to household income and/or employment and resource use. A resource-interindustry model was developed for Humboldt and Lander Counties in Nevada which shows the tradeoffs between regional household income (wages, salaries, profits, and rents) and/or employment and water usage. Water income and water employment multipliers can be ranked, enabling decisionmakers to realize sectors which require greatest regional water usage to regional household income and/or employment.     

ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AN URBAN CATCHMENT1

ABSTRACT: Stationarity of rainfall statistical parameters is a fundamental assumption in hydraulic infrastructure design that may not be valid in an era of changing climate. This study develops a framework for examining the potential impacts of future increases in short duration rainfall intensity on urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems of small watersheds and demonstrates this approach for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Nonstationarities in rainfall records are first analyzed with linear regression analysis, and the detected trends are extrapolated to build potential future rainfall scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to analyze the effects of increased rainfall intensity on design peak flows and to assess future drainage infrastructure capacity according to the derived scenarios. While the framework provided herein may be modified for cases in which more complex distributions for rainfall intensity are needed and more sophisticated stormwater management models are available, linear regressions and SWMM are commonly used in practice and are applicable for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed. Potential future impacts on stream health are assessed using methods based on equivalent total impervious area. In terms of impacts on the drainage infrastructure, the results of this study indicate that increases in short duration rainfall intensity may be expected in the future but that they would not create severe impacts in the Mission/Wagg Creek system. The equivalent levels of imperviousness, however, suggest that the impacts on stream health could be far more damaging.     

ANALYTICAL REGRESSION STAGE ANALYSIS FOR DEVILS HOLE,DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK,NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: Devils Hole is a collapse depression connected to the regional carbonate aquifer of the Death Valley ground water flow system. Devils Hole pool is home to an endangered pupfish that was threatened when irrigation pumping in nearby Ash Meadows lowered the pool stage in the 1960s. Pumping at Ash Meadows ultimately ceased, and the stage recovered until 1988, when it began to decline, a trend that continued until at least 2004. Regional ground water pumping and changes in recharge are considered the principal potential stresses causing long term stage changes. A regression was found between pumpage and Devils Hole water levels. Though precipitation in distant mountain ranges is the source of recharge to the flow system, the stage of Devils Hole shows small change in stage from 1937 to 1963, a period during which ground water withdrawals were small and the major stress on stage would have been recharge. Multiple regression analyses, made by including the cumulative departure from normal precipitation with pumpage as independent variables, did not improve the regression. Drawdown at Devils Hole was calculated by the Theis Equation for nearby pumping centers to incorporate time delay and drawdown attenuation. The Theis drawdowns were used as surrogates for pumpage in multiple regression analyses. The model coefficient for the regression, R²= 0.982, indicated that changes in Devils Hole were largely due to effects of pumping at Ash Meadows, Amargosa Desert, and Army 1.     

HYDROLOGIC BEHAVIOR OF VEGETATED ROOFS1

ABSTRACT: Control of stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces is an important national goal because of disruptions to downstream ecosystems, water users, and property owners caused by increased flows and degraded quality. One method for reducing stormwater is the use of vegetated (green) roofs, which efficiently detain and retain stormwater when compared to conventional (black) roofs. A paired green roof‐black roof test plot was constructed at the University of Georgia and monitored between November 2003 and November 2004 for the green roof's effectiveness in reducing stormwater flows. Stormwater mitigation performance was monitored for 31 precipitation events, which ranged in depth from 0.28 to 8.43 cm. Green roof precipitation retention decreased with precipitation depth; ranging from just under 90 percent for small storms (< 2.54 cm) to slightly less than 50 percent for larger storms (> 7.62 cm). Runoff from the green roof was delayed; average runoff lag times increased from 17.0 minutes for the black roof to 34.9 minutes for the green roof, an average increase of 17.9 minutes. Precipitation and runoff data were used to estimate the green roof curve number, CN = 86. This information can be used in hydrologic models for developing stormwater mitigation programs.