Application of machine learning technique for optimizing roadside design to decrease barrier crash costs,a quantile regression model approach

Introduction: In-transport vehicles often leave the travel lane and encroach onto natural objects on the roadsides. These types of crashes are called run-off the road crashes (ROR). Such crashes accounts for a significant proportion of fatalities and severe crashes. Roadside barrier installation would be warranted if they could reduce the severity of these types of crashes. However, roadside barriers still account for a significant proportion of severe crashes in Wyoming. The impact of the crash severity would be higher if barriers are poorly designed, which could result in override or underride barrier crashes. Several studies have been conducted to identify optimum values of barrier height. However, limited studies have investigated the monetary benefit associated with adjusting the barrier heights to the optimal values. In addition, few studies have been conducted to model barrier crash cost. This is because the crash cost is a heavily skewed distribution, and well-known distributions such as linear or poison models are incapable of capturing the distribution. A semi-parametric distribution such as asymmetric Laplace distribution can be used to account for this type of sparse distribution. Method: Interaction between different predictors were considered in the analysis. Also, to account for exposure effects across various barriers, barrier lengths and traffic volumes were incorporated in the models. This study is conducted by using a novel machine-learning-based cost-benefit optimization to provide an efficient guideline for decision makers. This method was used for predicting barrier crash costs without barrier enhancement. Subsequently the benefit was obtained by optimizing traffic barrier height and recalculating the benefit and cost. The trained model was used for crash cost prediction on barriers with and without crashes. Results: The results of optimization clearly demonstrated the benefit of optimizing the heights of road barriers around the state. Practical Applications: The findings can be utilized by the Wyoming Department of Transportation (WYDOT) to determine the heights of which barriers should be optimized first. Other states can follow the procedure described in this paper to upgrade their roadside barriers.     

Numerical investigation on performance of protective layer around large-scale chemical storage tank against impact by projectile

The protective layer of chemical storage tank has a significant effect in risk mitigation of projectile-related accidents but the research is still in infancy. In order to investigate the performance of protective layer against projectile, dynamic response process of the large-scale vertical storage tank impacted by the end-cap fragment is simulated based on the LS-DYNA. In this paper, some key factors (thickness, layering order and number of layers) affecting its performance are discussed, which can be characterized by the deformation degrees of the target tank. It is found that the anti-penetration performance is improved rapidly with the increase of thickness, and aluminum (Al) protective layer shows a higher sensitivity to thickness change compared to Ultra-High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (UHMWPE) protective layer. Three double-layered protective layers for different sequences are investigated and the Al-UHMWPE protective layer shows best performance. For the Al protective layers arranged in various combinations of equivalent total thickness, better performance is provided by monolithic structures than layered one. This study demonstrated the rational design of the protective layer around chemical storage tanks in material selection and structure configuration.     

Land-traffic crash leading to passenger vehicle submersion,drowning and other fatal injuries: A 44-year study based on records from the Finnish Crash Data Institute

Background: Land motor traffic crash (LMTC) -related drownings are an overlooked and preventable cause of injury death. The aim of this study was to analyze the profile of water-related LMTCs involving passenger cars and leading to drowning and fatal injuries in Finland, 1972 through 2015. Materials and methods: The database of the Finnish Crash Data Institute (FCDI) that gathers detailed information on fatal traffic accidents provided records on all LMTCs leading to drowning during the study period and, from 2002 to 2015, on all water-related LMTCs, regardless of the cause of death. For each crash, we considered variables on circumstances, vehicle, and fatality profiles. Results: During the study period, the FCDI investigated 225 water-related LMTCs resulting in 285 fatalities. The majority of crashes involved passenger cars (124), and the cause of death was mostly drowning (167). Only 61 (36.5%) fatalities suffered some–generally mild–injuries. The crashes frequently occurred during fall or summer (63.7%), in a river or ditch (60.5%), and resulted in complete vehicle’s submersion (53.7 %). Half of the crashes occurred in adverse weather conditions and in over 40% of the cases, the driver had exceeded the speed limit. Among drivers, 77 (68.8%) tested positive for alcohol (mean BAC 1.8%). Conclusion: Multidisciplinary investigations of LMTCs have a much higher potential than do exclusive police and medico-legal investigations. The risk factors of water-related LMTCs are similar to those of other traffic crashes. However, generally the fatal event in water-related LMTC is not the crash itself, but drowning. The paucity of severe physical injuries suggests that victims’ functional capacity is usually preserved during vehicle submersion. Practical Applications: In water-related LMTCs, expansion of safety measures is warranted from general traffic-injury prevention to prevention of drowning, including development of safety features for submerged vehicles and simple self-rescue protocols to escape from a sinking vehicle.     

道路常亮型LED补光灯对驾驶人员的视觉影响

为研究道路常亮型LED补光灯对安全驾驶的影响,通过实测道路现场光照数据构建室内眼动实验,分析不同照度下被试者瞳孔大小的变化和视觉感受变化特征,为道路常亮型LED补光灯的照度设置提供依据。结果表明:道路常亮型LED补光灯光照强度变化对驾驶人员视觉有影响,光照强度从100×10-1 lx变化到700×10-1 lx时,被试者瞳孔逐渐缩小,但能看得清目标;光照强度从700×10-1 lx变化到1 700×10-1 lx时,被试者瞳孔进一步缩小,瞳孔缩小至约3.5 mm时开始看不清楚目标。为减小道路常亮型LED补光灯对驾驶人员的视觉影响,道路常亮型LED补光灯的照度应该设置在700×10-1 lx以下。     

Graduated driver licensing: review of evaluation results since 2002

Unintentional injury from motor-vehicle crashes is the number one cause of death among teenagers in the United States. Increasingly, jurisdictions have adopted three-stage graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems for young novice drivers. Since a previous review of U.S. GDL evaluation results, many more U.S. states and Canadian provinces have implemented GDL and/or had enough time pass that additional evaluation results are now available. Twenty-one studies of GDL within 14 individual jurisdictions, and six studies of GDL in the U.S. nationwide, were collected, reviewed, and summarized. Positive results (usually crash reductions) of varying degrees were reported from nearly all the studies. Given differences in approaches, study goals, methods, and analyses, the results are surprisingly consistent. Overall, GDL programs have reduced the youngest drivers' crash risk by roughly 20 to 40%. Research on teen driving and comprehensive GDL enhancements could further reduce teen drivers' motor-vehicle crashes, injuries, and fatalities. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Policy-makers, as well as the motor vehicle, insurance, and other industries have been involved in teen driving safety and could enhance and coordinate their roles.     

California's graduated driver license law: Effect on teenage drivers' deaths through 2005

PROBLEM: While many researchers believe Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) laws save lives by imposing restrictions and delayed licensure on drivers under age 18, longer term effects on older teenagers have not been studied. METHOD: The effects of California's strict GDL law on deaths of drivers ages 16-19 were analyzed for 1995-2005 using Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series analysis of Fatality Analysis Reporting System mortality data. RESULTS: The two methods yielded similar results. IRR analysis found California 16-year-old drivers subject to the GDL experienced a 15% fatality decline (95% CI, 0.70-0.99), while 18 year-old drivers experienced a 15% increase (95% CI, 1.02-1.27). ARIMA analysis found 16 year-old drivers experienced a near-significant 20% fatality decline (p=0.07), while 18 year-olds experienced a 24% increase (p=0.01). Unlicensed teenage drivers and older teen drivers driving alone and transporting teenage passengers suffered significant fatality increases. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION: California's GDL may negatively affect older teenagers and other driver subpopulations and merits reevaluation.     

亚洲地区稻田N2O排放影响因子统计模拟分析

关于稻田N2O排放大样本统计分析大多只涉及水分因子和肥料因子,本研究收集历年亚洲稻田N2O排放资料和更多影响因子(水分管理、肥料类型及用量、土壤属性、气候和水稻类型等)的相关信息,从中筛选出具有统计学意义的因子,构建排放通量和上述因子的统计模型.具有统计学意义的因子包括不同水分管理措施、肥料用量、不同有机肥类型、不同p...     

Integration of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell in a sugar-ethanol factory: analysis of the efficiency and the environmental profile of the products

The effect of the integration of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) technology in a sugar-ethanol factory on the environmental profile/footprint of the products (sugar, ethanol, electricity) is evaluated. The sugarcane is the primary feedstock and sugar, ethanol and electricity are the main products of the system, where the functional unit is defined as 9.86 ton/h of sugar, 2.195 ton/h of hydrated ethanol (96% w/w) and 847 kWh of electricity. A detailed set of material and energy inputs and outputs was obtained from a local factory and was completed using simulation data by Aspen Plus^®.The environmental impacts (greenhouse gases and air pollution), exergy efficiency and a renewability parameter have been considered as indicators for the comparative assessment with conventional sugar, ethanol and electricity production technologies. The results show that the use of a SOFC technology involves a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (52-55%) and non-renewable resources (60-64%) when compared with the conventional integrated sugar and ethanol plant. The higher renewability index (0.93) and exergy efficiency (38%) are noticed for the Solid Oxide Fuel Cell technology integrated in the sugar-ethanol factory than conventional sugar-ethanol plant.     

Application of the AERMOD modeling system for environmental impact assessment of NO2 emissions from a cement complex

We applied the model of American Meteorological Society-Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) as a tool for the analysis of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions from a cement complex as a part of the environmental impact assessment. The dispersion of NO2 from four cement plants within the selected cement complex were investigated both by measurement and AERMOD simulation in dry and wet seasons. Simulated values of NO2 emissions were compared with those obtained during a 7-day continuous measurement campaign at 12 receptors. It was predicted that NO2 concentration peaks were found more within 1 to 5 km, where the measurement and simulation were in good agreement, than at the receptors 5 km further away from the reference point. The Quantile- Quantile plots of NO2 concentrations in dry season were mostly fitted to the middle line compared to those in wet season. This can be attributed to high NO2 wet deposition. The results show that for both the measurement and the simulation using the AERMOD, NO2 concentrations do not exceed the NO2 concentration limit set by the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of Thailand. This indicates that NO2 emissions from the cement complex have no significant impact on nearby communities. It can be concluded that the AERMOD can provide useful information to identify high pollution impact areas for the EIA guidelines.     

水电开发与规划环评

“十二五”规划纲要提出在做好生态保护和移民安置的前提下积极发展水电,并明确“十二五”期间要开工建设1．2亿千瓦水电的目标,我国需要加强水电开发管理,促进水电健康发展。2009年10月实施的《规划环境影响评价条例》要求在发展规划和决策中考虑环境影响,以实现具有环境相容性的人类活动的目的。在我国各种社会经济建设领域中,水利水电建设是最早开始建设项目环境影响评价和规划环境影响评价的领域之一。本文分析了现行规划环境影响评价制度框架下解决水电开发生态问题的五大难点,认为尚难破解水电规划开发生态难题,在此基础上提出了完善规划环境影响评价机制以解决水电开发中生态环境问题的对策,以期为落实“十二五”规划纲要所提出的在做好生态保护和移民安置的前提下积极发展水电提供决策参考。