基于累积前景理论的应急物流路径选择方法

为提高应急物资运输的高效性和可靠性,在充分考虑决策者的主观因素和风险态度后,建立一个基于累积前景理论(CPT)的应急物流路径选择模型。根据应急物流的特点,对CPT模型做了多参考点的延伸。选取物资运送的时间和运量作为模型的2个异质参考点,并在考虑时间可靠性和路径重新构造性的基础上,构建了2个参考点取值的数学模型。在算例部分,为对比决策者不同的风险态度对结果的影响,将决策者分为风险追求型和规避型。算例结果表明,该方法符合实际决策机制,有助于提升救援效率,而且参数的设置对路径前景值有重要影响。     

谈"动态对等"的缺陷

美国著名翻译理论家Nida提出的"动态对等"原则是对翻译理论界的一大贡献.笔者在承认这个原则的同时,从它概念的几个关键词入手,指出这个概念中几个值得商榷的地方,认为它的理论基础不牢靠,并分析了它所忽视的翻译所涉及的几个要素,由此表明,翻译这种涉及到许多因素的复杂活动不能依靠一种理论来指导.     

Tipping Elements in the Arctic Marine Ecosystem

The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.     

Road accident fatality risks for “vulnerable” versus “protected” road users in northern Ghana

Background: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a serious epidemic that claims more than a million lives across the globe each year. The burden of RTIs is particularly pronounced in Africa and other low- and middle-income countries. The unfavorable disparity of the burden of road trauma in the world is largely attributable to unsafe vehicles, lack of appropriate road infrastructure, and the predominance of vulnerable road users (VRUs) in developing countries. However, little research exists in northern Ghana to highlight the scale and risk of death among road users.

Objective: The objective of this research was to establish the relative risk of death among road users in northern Ghana.

Methods: Crash data from police reports between 2007 and 2011 were analyzed for the Upper Regions of Ghana. Conditional probabilities and multivariable logistic regression techniques were used to report proportions and adjusted odds ratios (AORs), respectively.

Results: Generally, crashes in northern Ghana were extremely severe; that is, 35% of all injury related collisions were fatal. The proportion of fatal casualties ranged between 21% among victims of sideswipe collisions and 41% among pedestrians and victims of rear-end collisions. Though males were 6 times more likely to die than females overall, females were more likely to die as pedestrians (90% of all female casualty deaths) and males were more likely to die as riders/drivers (78% of all male casualty deaths). Pedestrians were 3 times more likely to die (odds ratio [OR] = 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4 to 4.1) compared with drivers/riders. Compared with drivers, the odds of death among cyclists was about 4 times higher (AOR = 3.6; 95% CI, 2.3 to 5.6) and about 2 times higher among motorcyclists (AOR = 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.2). Compared with casualties aged between 30 and 59 years, children under 10 years and those aged 60 years and above were independently 2 times more likely to die in traffic collisions.

Conclusion: Provision of requisite road infrastructure is vital for the safety of VRUs in northern Ghana. Cycle paths and lanes (for cyclists) as well as sidewalks (for pedestrians) in particular will separate VRUs from motorists and improve their safety. Enforcement of traffic laws particularly regarding helmet use, speeding, and alcohol use will be beneficial. Introduction of the demerit points system in the enforcement of traffic regulations may have significant deterrent effects on road users who have the penchant for violating traffic regulations. Road safety education is also required to create responsible road users.     

扑救森林火灾时的注意事项

总结分析了在林火扑救中指挥员应掌握了解的基本情况及扑火队员应注意的事项。     

A national critical loads framework for atmospheric deposition effects assessment: II. Defining assessment end points,indicators, and functional subregions

The United States Environmental Protection Agency, with support from the US Department of Energy and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, has been evaluating the feasibility of an effects-based (critical loads) approach to atmospheric pollutant regulation and abatement. The rationale used to develop three of the six steps in a flexible assessment framework (Strickland and others, 1992) is presented along with a discussion of a variety of implementation approaches and their ramifications. The rationale proposes that it is necessary to provide an explicit statement of the condition of the resource that is considered valuable (assessment end point) because: (1) individual ecosystem components may be more or less sensitive to deposition, (2) it is necessary to select indicators of ecosystem condition that can be objectively measured and that reflect changes in the quality of the assessment end point, and (3) acceptable status (i.e., value of indicator and quality of assessment end point at critical load) must be defined. The rationale also stresses the importance of defining the assessment regions and subregions to improve the analysis and understanding of the indicator response to deposition. Subregional definition can be based on a variety of criteria, including informed judgment or quantitative procedures. It also depends on the geographic scale at which exposure and effects models are accurate and on data availability, resolution, and quality. The research described in this article has been funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency. This document has been prepared at the EPA Environmental Research Laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, through contract #68-C8-0006 with ManTech Environmental Technology, Inc., and Interagency Agreement #1824-B014-A7 with the US Department of Energy and at Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., under Contract DE-AC05-84OR21400 with the US Department of Energy. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 3903. It has been subjected to the agency’s peer and administrative review and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

运用回归分析测算水口镇商业用地基准地价

惠州市惠城区水口镇原隶属于惠阳市,2003年惠城区行政区划进行了战略性调整,惠阳撤市设区,水口镇划归惠城区管辖, 这样水口镇现执行的基准地价标准(原惠阳标准)需要更新.目前基准地价的评估方法有很多种,通过建立样点地价与土地定级网格单元总分值关系模型,运用回归分析来测算水口镇商业用地基准地价.     

铁路机车制造企业职业病防治管理体系探讨

为进一步提升铁路机车制造企业职业病防治水平,建立职业病防治管理体系,通过分析企业职业病危害因素及其浓度或强度,判断辨识职业病防治关键控制点,分析超标原因,提出控制措施和建议;结合调研分析结果探讨职业病防治管理体系的建立,从总体框架,防、治、保3个维度,危害治理、前期预防、基础管理、现场管理、应急管理、相关方管理6个方面作系统阐述。研究结果表明:铁路机车制造企业职业病关键控制点为铸造、打磨、水阻试验、空压机站、驱动试验和喷漆作业点。     

航空装备研制风险的综合赋权-双基点法评估

为实现对航空预研项目技术风险的定量评估,建立技术风险评价指标体系,建立基于综合赋权和双基点方法的综合评估模型,采用层次分析法(AHP)求得主观权重,熵值赋权法求得客观权重,运用线性规划方法求得对2类权重加权的权值,构造综合权重;使用正负理想点间的投影距离代替传统的相对欧式距离对TOPSIS方法进行改进;实例分析中,通过对某航空预研项目5种不同的方案进行风险评估,得出各方案的优劣度,选出了较为优化的技术方案,该方法可用于指导其他装备研制风险的评估.     

双碱法脱硫工艺改进及脱硫塔设计分析

改进优化传统双碱法烟气脱硫工艺,对脱硫塔及附属设施设计要点进行分析,在山西某化工厂2×55t/h三废炉烟气脱硫工程中得到较好运用,为同类烟气脱硫工程提供参考。