基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型*

为提高林火风险预测精度,挖掘地图上隐含的空间信息、时间序列上隐含的长期趋势和循环波动,提出1种基于缓冲区重采样的长短期记忆（LSTM）林火预测模型,选取15个与林火相关的影响因素,以方差膨胀因子为评价指标对其进行多重共线性检验,方差膨胀因子大于10的因素具有共线性,并采用信息增益率验证筛选结果的合理性。考虑到火灾的空间聚集特性,采用缓冲区分析与过采样相结合方法减少样本不均衡现象的影响,最终得到176 732条样本。对12个影响因素和研究时间段的火点建立LSTM预测模型,对森林火灾发生风险进行预测。研究结果表明:基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型有效考虑时空上隐含的信息,预测模型准确率为87.06%,特异性为97.99%,敏感度为76.12%,阳性预测率为97.43%,阴性预测率为80.41%,ROC曲线与AUC值均优于随机森林（RF）和支持向量机（SVM）这2种基准算法。维尔克松秩和检验发现,本文提出的模型与基准算法结果具有显著性差异。研究结果可为提高林火风险预测精度提供参考。     

Assessment of Eutrophication in Estuaries: Pressure–State–Response and Nitrogen Source Apportionment

A eutrophication assessment method was developed as part of the National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment (NEEA) Program. The program is designed to improve monitoring and assessment of eutrophication in the estuaries and coastal bays of the United States with the intent to guide management plans and develop analytical and research models and tools for managers. These tools will help guide and improve management success for estuaries and coastal resources. The assessment method, a Pressure-State-Response approach, uses a simple model to determine Pressure and statistical criteria for indicator variables (where applicable) to determine State. The Response determination is mostly heuristic, although research models are being developed to improve that component. The three components are determined individually and then combined into a single rating. Application to several systems in the European Union (E.U.), specifically in Portugal, shows that the method is transferable, and thus is useful for development of management measures in both the Unites States and E.U. This approach identifies and quantifies the key anthropogenic nutrient input sources to estuaries so that management measures can target inputs for maximum effect. Because nitrogen is often the limiting nutrient in estuarine systems, examples of source identification and quantification for nitrogen have been developed for 11 coastal watersheds on the U.S. east coast using the WATERSN model. In general, estuaries in the Northeastern United States receive most of their nitrogen from human sewage, followed by atmospheric deposition. This is in contrast to some watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic (Chesapeake Bay) and South Atlantic (Pamlico Sound), which receive most of their nitrogen from agricultural runoff. Source identification is important for implementing effective management measures that should be monitored for success using assessment methods, as described herein. For instance, these results suggest that Northeastern estuaries would likely benefit most from improved sewage treatment, where as the Mid and South Atlantic systems would benefit most from agricultural runoff reductions.     

Maintenance of Forest Biodiversity in a Post-Soviet Governance Model: Perceptions by Local Actors in Lithuania

Successful biodiversity conservation does not depend on ecologic knowledge alone. Good conservation policies and policy implementation tools are equally important. Moreover, the knowledge, skills, and attitudes of local actors, directly in charge of operations in the field, are a key to successful policy implementation. The connections between policy objectives and their implementation as well as the involvement of local actors’ efforts in implementing policy objectives largely depend on the governance model in use. This article assesses the knowledge of local actors in relation to the biodiversity conservation objectives and tools in Lithuanian forest management. As a main framework for this study, the needs assessment approach was applied. The study used both in-depth open-ended interviews and follow-up telephone interviews. Two state forest enterprises in Lithuania were selected as the study sites. The findings indicate that policy objectives in the field of forest biodiversity conservation and the related tools are well known but not well understood by those in charge of forest biodiversity policy implementation. To improve the situation, a transition toward adaptive learning and participatory governance as a means of facilitating conservation efforts is proposed.     

Response of Fish and Macroinvertebrate Bioassessment Indices to Water Chemistry in a Mined Appalachian Watershed

Multimetric indices based on fish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages are commonly used to assess the biological integrity of aquatic ecosystems. However, their response to specific stressors is rarely known. We quantified the response of a fish-based index (Mid-Atlantic Highlands Index of Biotic Integrity, MAH-IBI) and a benthic invertebrate-based index (West Virginia Stream Condition Index, WV-SCI) to acid mine drainage (AMD)-related stressors in 46 stream sites within the Cheat River watershed, West Virginia. We also identified specific stressor concentrations at which biological impairment was always or never observed. Water chemistry was extremely variable among tributaries of the Cheat River, and the WV-SCI was highly responsive across a range of AMD stressor levels. Furthermore, impairment to macroinvertebrate communities was observed at relatively low stressor concentrations, especially when compared to state water quality standards. In contrast to the WV-SCI, we found that the MAH-IBI was significantly less responsive to local water quality conditions. Low fish diversity was observed in several streams that possessed relatively good water quality. This pattern was especially pronounced in highly degraded subwatersheds, suggesting that regional conditions may have a strong influence on fish assemblages in this system. Our results indicate that biomonitoring programs in mined watersheds should include both benthic invertebrates, which are consistent indicators of local conditions, and fishes, which may be indicators of regional conditions. In addition, remediation programs must address the full suite of chemical constituents in AMD and focus on improving linkages among streams within drainage networks to ensure recovery of invertebrate and fish assemblages. Future research should identify the precise chemical conditions necessary to maintain biological integrity in mined Appalachian watersheds.     

Application of Zoning and “Limits of Acceptable Change” to Manage Snorkelling Tourism

Zoning and applying Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) are two promising strategies for managing tourism in Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Typically, these management strategies require the collection and integration of ecological and socioeconomic data. This problem is illustrated by a case study of Koh Chang National Marine Park, Thailand. Biophysical surveys assessed coral communities in the MPA to derive indices of reef diversity and vulnerability. Social surveys assessed visitor perceptions and satisfaction with conditions encountered on snorkelling tours. Notably, increased coral mortality caused a significant decrease in visitor satisfaction. The two studies were integrated to prescribe zoning and “Limits of Acceptable Change” (LAC). As a biophysical indicator, the data suggest a LAC value of 0.35 for the coral mortality index. As a social indicator, the data suggest that a significant fraction of visitors would find a LAC value of under 30 snorkellers per site as acceptable. The draft zoning plan prescribed four different types of zones: (I) a Conservation Zone with no access apart from monitoring or research; (II) Tourism Zones with high tourism intensities at less vulnerable reefs; (III) Ecotourism zones with a social LAC standard of <30 snorkellers per site, and (IV) General Use Zones to meet local artisanal fishery needs. This study illustrates how ecological and socioeconomic field studies in MPAs can be integrated to craft zoning plans addressing multiple objectives.     

基于贝叶斯的苯并(α)芘PBPK模型优化与健康风险评估应用

应用基于生理的药代动力学(PBPK)模型预测苯并(α)芘(BaP)暴露的人体内部剂量,基于贝叶斯的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟(MCMC)方法对模型参数进行校准和优化,最后运用已优化的模型对BaP内暴露基准值进行推导.研究发现,基于贝叶斯的MCMC方法对模型后验参数校准后,模型精度明显提高,两个数据集验证结果显示残差平方和分别降低了72%和94%.PBPK模型以BaP和子代谢物3-羟基苯并(α)芘(3-OHBaP)的体内动力学过程为结构基础,模拟BaP体内浓度分布大小为脂肪>肾脏>皮肤>缓慢灌注组织>快速灌注组织>静脉血>肝脏;3-OHBaP体内浓度分布大小为肾脏>快速灌注组织>脂肪>肺>静脉血>缓慢灌注组织>肝脏>皮肤.敏感性分析显示,快速灌注组织-血分配系数对模型输出影响最大,灵敏度系数超过了200%;排泄系数影响最小,只有肾小球过滤率K_BR的灵敏度系数超过了1%.以美国国家环境保护局推荐的参考浓度2.0×10^-6mg/m³为外暴露安全基准值,基于PBPK模型推导了职业暴露的BaP生物监测当量(BE),结果显示BE值为0.405pmol/mol肌酐(尿液3-OHBaP平均浓度),为基于人体内暴露剂量水平进行定量健康风险评估奠定了基础.     

Dosing low-level ferrous iron in coagulation enhances the removal of micropollutants, chlorite and chlorate during advanced water treatment

Drinking water utilities are interested in upgrading their treatment facilities to enhance micropollutant removal and byproduct control. Pre-oxidation by chlorine dioxide (ClO₂) followed by coagulation-flocculation-sedimentation and advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) is one of the promising solutions. However, the chlorite (ClO₂^–) formed from the ClO₂ pre-oxidation stage cannot be removed by the conventional coagulation process using aluminum sulfate. ClO₂^– negatively affects the post-UV/chlorine process due to its strong radical scavenging effect, and it also enhances the formation of chlorate (ClO₃^–). In this study, dosing micromolar-level ferrous iron (Fe(II)) into aluminum-based coagulants was proposed to eliminate the ClO₂^– generated from ClO₂ pre-oxidation and benefit the post-UV/chlorine process in radical production and ClO₃^– reduction. Results showed that the addition of 52.1-µmol/L FeSO₄ effectively eliminated the ClO₂^– generated from the pre-oxidation using 1.0 mg/L (14.8 µmol/L) of ClO₂. Reduction of ClO₂^– increased the degradation rate constant of a model micropollutant (carbamazepine) by 55.0% in the post-UV/chlorine process. The enhanced degradation was verified to be attributed to the increased steady-state concentrations of HO^· and ClO^· by Fe(II) addition. Moreover, Fe(II) addition also decreased the ClO₃^– formation by 53.8% in the UV/chlorine process and its impact on the formation of chloro-organic byproducts was rather minor. The findings demonstrated a promising strategy to improve the drinking water quality and safety by adding low-level Fe(II) in coagulation in an advanced drinking water treatment train.     

Interactions between lead(II) ions and dissolved organic matter derived from organic fertilizers incubated in the field

This work was to study composition characteristics and the subsequent effect on the lead (Pb) binding properties of dissolved organic matter (DOM) derived from seaweed-based (SWOF) and chicken manure organic fertilizers (CMOF) during a one-year field incubation experiment using the excitation-emission matrix-parallel factor (EEM-PARAFAC) and two-dimensional correlation spectroscopy (2DCOS) analysis. Results showed that high aromatic and hydrophobic fluorescent substances were enriched in CMOF-derived DOM and SWOF-derived DOM and enhanced over time. And phenolic groups in the fulvic-like substances for SWOF-derived DOM and carboxyl groups in the humic-like substances for CMOF-derived DOM had the fastest responses over time, respectively. Moreover, both non-fluorescent polysaccharides and fluorescent humic-like substances or fulvic-like substances with aromatic (C=C) groups first participated in the binding process of Pb to SWOF-derived DOM on day 0 and 180 during the lead binding process. In contrast, humic-like substances associated with aromatic (C=C) and phenolic groups gave a faster response to Pb binding on day 360. Regarding CMOF-derived DOM, the fulvic-like substances associated with aromatic (C=C) and carboxylic groups displayed a faster response to Pb ions on day 0. Nonetheless, polysaccharides and humic-like associated with phenolic groups had a faster response on days 180 and 360. It is noteworthy that the polysaccharides, which participated in Pb binding to CMOF-derived DOM, posed a higher risk of Pb in the environment after 360 days. Therefore, these findings gave new insights into the long-term applications of commercial organic fertilizers for the amendment of soil.     

Enhancing anoxic denitrification of low C/N ratio wastewater with novel ZVI composite carriers

External organic carbon sources are needed to provide electron donors for the denitrification of wastewater with a low COD/NO₃^--N（C/N） ratio, increasing the treatment cost. The economic strategy is to enhance the bioactivity and/or biodiversity of denitrifiers to efficiently utilize organic substances in wastewater. In this study, novel zero-valent iron（ZVI） composite carriers were prepared and implemented in a suspended carrier biofilm reactor to enhance the bioactivity an...     

Evidence on the causes of the rising levels of CODMn along the middle route of the South-to-North Diversion Project in China: The role of algal dissolved organic matter

As the biggest inter-basin water transfer scheme in the world,the South-to-North Water Diversion Project（SNWD） was designed to alleviate the water crisis in North China.The main channel of the middle route of the SNWD is of great concern in terms of the drinking water quality.In this study,we tested the hypothesis that the dissolved organic matter（DOM） derived from the planktonic algae causes the rising levels of COD_Mn along the middle route by monitoring data on water quality（2015-20...