A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife.     

稻田落干过程砷甲基化效率变化与关键影响因素分析

研究稻田落干过程砷甲基化效率变化规律,分析关键环境和生物因素的影响,为今后水稻直穗病防控提供科学依据.开展室内培养模拟稻田落干过程,以采集自贵州兴仁（XR）和广西南丹（ND）的两种砷污染水稻土壤为供试土壤,各土壤设置添加（RS）和不添加（CK）水稻秸秆处理,分析自然落干0、24、36、48和60 h过程中Eh、pH、孔隙水总有机碳（TOC）、砷形态、砷甲基化功能基因（arsM）、硫酸盐还原菌（dsrA,砷甲基化相关微生物）、产甲烷菌（mcrA,砷去甲基化相关微生物）丰度和arsM功能微生物多样性变化.稻田落干过程土壤Eh由完全淹水状态下的-300~-200 mV向落干后的-150~-50 mV变迁,而pH值变化规律不明显;孔隙水无机砷（iAs）和二甲基砷（DMAs）浓度随落干过程变化更为显著,总体呈现增加趋势,且RS处理DMAs浓度显著高于CK,ND土壤孔隙水比XR土壤孔隙水DMAs浓度更高;随落干时间延长,XR-CK和XR-RS处理土壤砷甲基化效率有一定提升,但变化不显著,而ND-CK和ND-RS处理土壤砷甲基化效率显著增加.当培养为60 h时,ND-CK和ND-RS处理砷甲基化效率相比培养初期分别提高约61.8%和23.2%;随落干时间延长arsM和dsrA基因拷贝数明显增加,而mcrA基因拷贝数显著下降.秸秆添加后显著提高全细菌和arsM、dsrA和mcrA基因丰度;进一步基于多因素方差分析和冗余分析发现,供试土壤、秸秆添加、落干时间和其交互作用对于各砷形态、砷甲基化效率和关键基因丰度变化影响显著,TOC、Eh和砷甲基化相关基因与甲基态砷呈正向关联,而与无机砷iAs呈负向关联;基于arsM微生物测序发现,伴随落干过程还发生着砷甲基化功能微生物群落的更替.研究结果有助于提升稻田落干过程中砷甲基化变化的理论认知,为今后水稻直穗病科学防控提供指导.     

基于贝叶斯理论的小麦籽粒镉铅超标风险预测

对农作物污染风险进行预测具有重大意义.基于贝叶斯定理及数据分布特征,建立了贝叶斯风险预测模型,并使用区域大田调查土壤-小麦重金属含量数据,预测小麦籽粒Cd和Pb超标风险并验证该模型的准确度.结果表明,该模型预测小麦籽粒Cd超标风险时相对偏差较小,以小麦籽粒Cd含量为变量的预测相对偏差仅为(2.66±1.87)%,以土壤DTPA-Cd含量和土壤Cd全量为变量时预测相对偏差则分别为(5.11±3.77)%和(5.88±3.87)%, 3个变量均能使预测结果与真实超标概率的平均相对偏差小于10%.预测小麦籽粒Pb超标风险时,仅小麦籽粒Pb含量的预测相对偏差小于10%.数据来源、数据分布特征和变量的选择是影响贝叶斯风险预测模型预测相对偏差的重要因素.该模型基于大田数据的先验分布,能够有效反映大田生产条件下小麦籽粒重金属与土壤因子间的相互关系,预测较准确,具有应用潜力.     

Hybrid zeolite-based ion-exchange and sulfur oxidizing denitrification for advanced slaughterhouse wastewater treatment

The discharge of slau ghterhouse wastewater（SWW） is incre asing and its wastewater has to be treated thoroughly to avoid the eutrophication.The hybrid zeolite-based ion-exchange and sulfur autotrophic denitrification（IX-AD） process was developed to advanced treat SWW after traditional secondary biological process.Compared with traditional sulfur oxidizing denitrification（SOD）,this study found that IX-AD column showed:（1） stronger ability to resist NO₃^-pollution load,（2） low...     

Distribution-free two-sample comparisons in the case of heterogeneous variances

Behavioral ecologists are often faced with a situation where they need to compare the central tendencies of two samples. The standard tools of the t test and Mann–Whitney U test (equivalent to the Wilcoxon rank-sum test) are unreliable when the variances of the groups are different. The problem is particularly severe when sample sizes are different between groups. The unequal-variance t test (Welch test) may not be suitable for nonnormal data. Here, we propose the use of Brunner and Munzel’s generalized Wilcoxon test followed by randomization to allow for small sample sizes. This tests whether the probability of an individual from one population being bigger than an individual from the other deviates from random expectation. This probability may sometimes be a more clear and informative measure of difference between the groups than a difference in more commonly used measures of central tendency (such as the mean). We provide a recipe for carrying out a statistical test of the null hypothesis that this probability is 50% and demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique for sample sizes typical in behavioral ecology. Although the test is not available in any commercial software package, it is relatively straightforward to implement for anyone with some programming ability. Furthermore, implementations in R and SAS are freely available on the internet.     

四溴二苯醚对人甲状腺细胞功能的影响

为研究四溴二苯醚(BDE-47)对原代培养人甲状腺细胞功能的影响,分别用浓度为10-12、10-10和10-8mol·L-1的BDE-47处理原代人甲状腺滤泡上皮细胞(TEC)24h,采用化学发光酶联免疫检测法检测细胞上清液中甲状腺球蛋白(Tg)的浓度,半定量逆转录聚合酶链反应技术检测功能相关的Tg基因和双链复合蛋白8(Pax-8)基因的表达.结果表明,10-12、10-10mol·L-1暴露组Tg分泌量较对照组显著减少(p<0.05),而10-8mol·L-1BDE-47组Tg分泌量与对照组无显著性差异(p>0.05).甲状腺功能相关Tg基因和Pax-8基因的表达量随BDE-47浓度的增加而显著降低(p<0.05),呈明显的剂量-效应关系.以上结果提示,BDE-47对离体培养的原代人甲状腺细胞的功能具有抑制作用,甲状腺功能相关Tg基因和Pax-8基因的表达下调可能是其作用机制之一.     

三江源区东西样带土壤侵蚀的

运用137Cs和210Pb_ex联合示踪技术,考察青藏高原三江源区东西样带137Cs和210Pb_ex面积浓度的背景值和变化特征,以及东西样带土壤侵蚀速率、分布特征和主要影响因素. 结果表明:①青藏高原三江源区东西样带137Cs和210Pb_ex面积浓度背景值分别为453～1 714和2 612～7 377 Bq/m2,137Cs和210Pb_ex背景值从西向东样带随海拔高度的变化差异明显.137Cs(x)和210Pb_ex(y)面积浓度的背景值区域分布呈显著线性相关,相关性关系式为y3.587　2x+1　463.4,R20.951　7.②长江源区沱沱河137Cs的示踪结果表明,以沱沱河为中心的长江源区是典型的风蚀区,年侵蚀速率2.5 t/(hm2·a),该区是青藏高原重要的沙尘暴源区之一.③黄河源区玛多典型坡面137Cs和210Pb_ex的示踪结果表明,近40年来,玛多畜牧业为主的人类活动造成的土壤扰动比自然因素的影响大.④玛沁东倾沟乡和军牧场的比较研究结果表明,玛沁东倾沟乡高山草甸的水土保持效果较好,而玛沁军牧场的畜牧业活动造成了地表土壤的强烈扰动.⑤玛沁军功镇典型水蚀地貌土壤剖面137Cs和210Pb_ex的结果表明,20世纪50—60年代,该区的极端暴雨事件导致了严重的水土流失,土壤剖面中出现137Cs和210Pb_ex的空白区. 植被破坏导致玛沁军功镇出现了严重水蚀,净侵蚀速率为8.0 t/(hm2·a).⑥近40年来,随着人类活动的加剧和全球气候变暖,导致青藏高原三江源区出现了沙尘暴的传输源地.      

卡尔曼滤波-分光光度法同时测定长江、嘉陵江地表水中微量铜、镉、锌和铅

以2-(5-溴-2-吡啶偶氮)-5-二乙氨基酚为螯合剂,三氯甲烷为萃取剂,采用卡尔曼滤波和分光光度法同时分析长江和嘉陵江现场采集的地表水样中Cu~(2 ),Cd~(2 ),Zn~(2 )和Pb~(2 )的浓度.4种金属离子的实验室回收率在91.0%-113.1%之间;比较长江、嘉陵江国控点例行监测数据,本方法具有较好的可比性和可靠性,能直接应用于江河水样多种金属污染物的同时定量分析.     

三江源区生态资源非使用价值评价

采用权变评价法评估了青海三江源区生态资源的非使用价值,并分析了其影响因素.结果表明,三江源区生态资源的非使用价值为453.06亿元/年,其中存在价值为236.36亿元/年,遗产价值为125.91亿元/年,选择价值为90.79亿元/年,人均支付意愿为76.30元/年.Logit模型和Tobit模型分析表明,对该区的了解程度、关注程度、重视程度、年龄、个人收入、教育程度等因素均影响其非使用价值评价.     

火灾扑救模拟演练DIS系统框架的研究

论述了分布式交互仿真 (DistributedInteractiveSimulation ,简称DIS)技术在火灾扑救模拟演练中的应用 ,给出其系统框架 ;详细描述了该DIS系统中的白方系统、蓝方系统和红方系统的具体组成功能部分 ;提出了实现这些功能的软件平台。最后给出了研究DIS在火灾扑救演练应用中的结论 ;指出未来的发展方向 ,强调了实际应用中可能出现的技术难点