CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATION FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the distribution of flood flows in the Upper Mississippi, Lower Missouri, and Illinois Rivers and their relationship to climatic indices. Global climate patterns including El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation explained very little of the variations in flow peaks. However, large and statistically significant upward trends were found in many gauge records along the Upper Mississippi and Missouri Rivers: at Hermann on the Missouri River above the confluence with the Mississippi (p = 2 percent), at Hannibal on the Mississippi River (p < 0.1 percent), at Meredosia on the Illinois River (p = 0.7 percent), and at St. Louis on the Mississippi below the confluence of all three rivers (p = 1 percent). This challenges the traditional assumption that flood series are independent and identically distributed random variables and suggests that flood risk changes over time.     

Five Hundred Years of Hydrological Drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: This article evaluates drought scenarios of the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) considering multiple drought variables for the past 500 years and positions the current drought in terms of the magnitude and frequency. Drought characteristics were developed considering water‐year data of UCRB’s streamflow, and basin‐wide averages of the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) and the Palmer Z Index. Streamflow and drought indices were reconstructed for the last 500 years using a principal component regression model based on tree‐ring data. The reconstructed streamflow showed higher variability as compared with reconstructed PHDI and reconstructed Palmer Z Index. The magnitude and severity of all droughts were obtained for the last 500 years for historical and reconstructed drought variables and ranked accordingly. The frequency of the current drought was obtained by considering two different drought frequency statistical approaches and three different methods of determining the beginning and end of the drought period (annual, 5‐year moving, and ten year moving average). It was concluded that the current drought is the worst in the observed record period (1923‐2004), but 6th to 14th largest in terms of magnitude and 1st to 12th considering severity in the past 500 years. Similarly, the current drought has a return period ranging from 37 to 103 years based on how the drought period was determined. It was concluded that if the 10‐year moving average is used for defining the drought period, the current drought appears less severe in terms of magnitude and severity in the last 500 years compared with the results using 1‐ and 5‐year averages.     

Climate variability,water levels,and fish catch in the Upper East Region of Ghana

The aim of the research was to investigate the effects of climate variability on selected water bodies in the Upper East Region of Ghana using time series decomposition and simple linear regression analyses. Data on temperature and rainfall (1960–2015), annual total fish catch (1996–2016), and the recorded water levels (1987–2015) of a major reservoir, the Tono, were used. Time series decomposition analyses were performed on the rainfall, temperature, and water level data to identify their trends. While temperature was increasing, rainfall was decreasing and resulted in a decrease in the water level in the Tono Reservoir. The decreasing water level in the reservoir made fish catch easier, which led to overfishing. Out of the other 39 dugouts studied, 8 (21%) were silted. Also, rainfall was decreasing at 4.4% per decade and minimum and maximum temperatures were increasing at 2.5% and 0.03% per decade, respectively. The minimum, maximum, and mean water levels of the Tono Reservoir were 3.7, 8.0, and 4.9 meters (m), respectively. The water level of the Tono Reservoir was decreasing by ?0.08 m per year. It is concluded that the water level in the Tono Reservoir was continually decreasing as a result of decreasing rainfall and increasing maximum and minimum temperatures. To maintain a much more stable microclimate and decrease the siltation rate of the reservoirs, farmers are advised to stop farming along the banks of water bodies and avoid clearing vegetation. Fishermen are also encouraged to adopt fish farming in enclosed areas within the reservoir to meet the growing protein demands in the Upper East Region of Ghana.     

导致上西里西亚工业区儿童血铅水平升高环境和社会经济因素研究

本文集中在横向分析近期波兰儿童铅暴露和铅暴露增加背后的社会经济因素。在上西里西亚工业区,铅是分布最广泛的有毒重金属之一。儿童血铅水平升高关系儿童幸福,不断引起严重关切。本研究涉及在1999 - 2013年间,上西里西亚地区3岁到18岁的4 882名儿童。记录了每一个孩子血液中铅的浓度。孩子的父母被要求回答关于儿童接触铅的环境和家庭社会经济条件的问卷调查。铅暴露增加的因素包括：父母受教育程度较低,父母失业、父母的职业铅暴,家庭的贫穷社会经济地位,在家吸烟,生活在建筑物底层,食用本地种植的蔬菜和水果,在污染环境中长期进行户外活动和男性性别。铅的环境暴露仍然是导致上西里西亚地区儿童慢性铅中毒的主要因素。与儿童血铅浓度关系最大的社会经济因素是儿童父母的低教育水平。
精选自Wojciech Pelc, Natalia Pawlas, Micha? Dobrakowski, S?awomir Kasperczyk. Environmental and socioeconomic factors contributing to elevated blood lead levels in children from industrial area of Upper Silesia. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 10, pages 2597–2603, October 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3429
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3429/full
     

安宁河上游冷渍沟泥石流特征及其发展趋势

冷渍沟是安宁河上游左岸的一级支沟,沟内发育了一大型滑坡 碎屑流,为后续泥石流活动提供充足的松散物质来源。为了研究冷渍沟泥石流的危害特征,在野外调查和实地勘测的基础上,分析了泥石流的形成背景条件及其特征,探讨了泥石流的发展趋势,提出了相应的泥石流防治对策。研究表明,冷渍沟泥石流属于过渡性（亚粘性）高频大规模泥石流,泥石流成灾速度快,危害严重;百年一遇的泥石流容重为21 t/m3,五十年一遇的泥石流容重为20 t/m3,二十年一遇害泥石流容重为19 t/m3,相应的峰值流量分别为12768、8171和3818 m3/s。在常态下,冷渍沟泥石流的发生频率和规模会逐渐减小;但如果近期遭遇强震或者暴雨,一旦滑坡失稳堵塞沟道,将会暴发大规模泥石流,很容易堵断安宁河,对上下游造成严重危害。因此,建议在该流域布设必要的泥石流防治工程;同时加强对沟道两岸和滑坡稳定性监测,做好泥石流发生的监测预警工作     

巷道及“U”工作面上隅角瓦斯运移、积聚及处理措施分析

分析了瓦斯在正常井巷风流中的主要运移扩散方式 ;论述了煤层巷道及工作面上隅角瓦斯运移过程及其局部区域和上隅角形成瓦斯积聚的原因 ;针对当前采用的治理局部瓦斯积聚的几项措施 ,进行了详细的讨论 ;结合白集煤矿实际情况 ,对目前采用的瓦斯治理措施进行了分析。     

Analysis of leakage in carbon sequestration projects in forestry: a case study of upper magat watershed,Philippines

The role of forestry projects in carbon conservation and sequestration is receiving much attention because of their role in the mitigation of climate change. The main objective of the study is to analyze the potential of the Upper Magat Watershed for a carbon sequestration project. The three main development components of the project are forest conservation: tree plantations, and agroforestry farm development. At Year 30, the watershed can attain a net carbon benefit of 19.5 M tC at a cost of US$ 34.5 M. The potential leakage of the project is estimated using historical experience in technology adoption in watershed areas in the Philippines and a high adoption rate. Two leakage scenarios were used: baseline and project leakage scenarios. Most of the leakage occurs in the first 10 years of the project as displacement of livelihood occurs during this time. The carbon lost via leakage is estimated to be 3.7 M tC in the historical adoption scenario, and 8.1 M tC under the enhanced adoption scenario.     

汇流阈值对提取叶尔羌河上游流域面积高程积分的影响

不同地貌单元,其汇流阈值的界定差异较大,而不同的汇流阈值直接影响河流长度、河网密度以及集水区面积的提取结果,因此,汇流阈值的界定是提取流域面积高程积分的关键.以叶尔羌河上游流域为研究对象,基于不同分辨率数字高程模型数据对叶尔羌河上游流域面积高程积分的提取结果,确定适宜分辨率的数字高程模型数据,探讨不同汇流阈值对叶尔羌河...     

不同退水时间土壤种子库与地表植被关系研究

为了研究湿地不同退水时间条件下土壤种质资源与地表植被关系的特征,在三个不同的水位条件下,通过幼苗萌发法对野鸭湖湿地近十年来退水湿地面积中土壤种子资源的分布格局进行了研究,同时,对该区域的地表植被在不同退水时间条件下进行了春、夏、秋三次统计。结果表明,土壤中的种子与地表植被在不同的退水时间条件下,差异显著。文章同时还分析了在不同退水时间条件下,土壤种质资源与地表植被产生差异的原因,为今后利用土壤种子资源在湿地恢复和湿地保护过程中的应用提供理论参考。     

外秦淮河底泥释放对上覆水水质的影响

通过静态模拟实验，分析了外秦淮河底泥中释放出的与黑臭有关的DO、COD、NH3-N对上覆水水质的影响。上覆水中COD质量浓度是前4d呈下降趋势，至第11d基本稳定；NH3-N质量浓度是前4d呈上升趋势，至第11d趋于稳定；DO质量浓度是从开始实验时的7mg/L左右，很快下降至第11d的1mg/L以下才基本稳定。结果表明，外秦淮河底泥释放对上覆水水质有一定影响，并且这种释放有明显的梯度效应。