Approaching the upper boundary of driver-response relationships: identifying factors using a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning

● A novel framework integrating quantile regression with machine learning is proposed. ● It aims to identify factors driving observations to upper boundary of relationship. ● Increasing N:P and TN concentration help fulfill the effect of TP on CHL. ● Wetter and warmer decrease potential and increase eutrophication control difficulty. ● The framework advances applications of quantile regression and machine learning. The identification of factors that may be forcing ecological observations to approach the upper boundary provides insight into potential mechanisms affecting driver-response relationships, and can help inform ecosystem management, but has rarely been explored. In this study, we propose a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning. In the first stage of the framework, we estimate the upper boundary of a driver-response relationship using quantile regression. Next, we calculate “potentials” of the response variable depending on the driver, which are defined as vertical distances from the estimated upper boundary of the relationship to observations in the driver-response variable scatter plot. Finally, we identify key factors impacting the potential using a machine learning model. We illustrate the necessary steps to implement the framework using the total phosphorus (TP)-Chlorophyll a (CHL) relationship in lakes across the continental US. We found that the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio (N׃P), annual average precipitation, total nitrogen (TN), and summer average air temperature were key factors impacting the potential of CHL depending on TP. We further revealed important implications of our findings for lake eutrophication management. The important role of N׃P and TN on the potential highlights the co-limitation of phosphorus and nitrogen and indicates the need for dual nutrient criteria. Future wetter and/or warmer climate scenarios can decrease the potential which may reduce the efficacy of lake eutrophication management. The novel framework advances the application of quantile regression to identify factors driving observations to approach the upper boundary of driver-response relationships.     

Criteria and indicators for a bioenergy production industry identified via stakeholder participation

As bioenergy production expands and new bioenergy-based technologies emerge, there is a growing concern regarding the sustainability of their ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Comprehensive sustainability assessments are needed to address this concern and to assure that the development of the bioenergy industry meets sustainability goals. Most sustainability assessments for bioenergy are expert-driven, broad, and largely motivated by an interest in optimizing international trade in bioenergy. As a result, social and cultural sustainability targets are vague or underdeveloped. In this study, we developed a sustainability assessment for a regional bioenergy production industry in Upper Michigan, using stakeholder participation. Semi-structured interviews and focus group meetings were used to elicit participants’ concerns and opinion. These concerns were translated into sustainability Criteria and Indicators (C&Is), many of which could be supported with available science. Some of the C&Is identified by participants were unique to the region. Sustainability C&Is were broadly categorized into economic (C = 5; I = 22), environmental (C = 6; I = 12), social (C = 3; I = 9), policy and regulations (C = 3; I = 13), and institutional capacity (C = 4; I = 13). While participants could identify indicators for most of the criteria (many of which are also supported by existing literature), further research and validation will be necessary to identify measurable, practical, and bias-free indicators for all criteria.     

Providing health services during a civil war: the experience of a garrison town in South Sudan

The impact of conflict, particularly conflict arising during civil wars, on the provision of healthcare is a subject that has not been widely considered in conflict‐related research. Combatants often target health services to weaken or to defeat the enemy, while attempts to maintain or improve health systems also can comprise part of counter‐insurgency ‘hearts‐and‐minds’ strategies. This paper describes the dynamics associated with the provision of health services in Malakal, an important garrison town in South Sudan, during the second Sudanese civil war (1983–2005). Drawing on the concepts of opportunity hoarding and exploitation, it explores the social and political dynamics of service provision in and around the town during the war. These concepts provide a useful lens with which to understand better how health services are affected by conflict, while the empirical case study presented in the paper illustrates dynamics that may be repeated in other contexts. The concepts and case study set out in this paper should prove useful to healthcare providers working in conflict zones, including humanitarian aid agencies and their employees, increasing their understanding of the social and political dynamics that they are likely to face during future conflict‐related complex emergencies.     

岷江上游生态环境建设与经济可持续发展

岷江上游生态环境问题严重,森林破坏、植被生态功能退化、水土流失、生物多样性减少。在上游地区应加强退耕还林还草,建立生态型持续农业系统和生态文明示范区,调整产业结构,提高群众的综合素质,走可持续发展道路。     

AFTER THE 1993 FLOOD: A WATER AND SURFICIAL BED SEDIMENT QUALITY SCENARIO ON THE ILLINOIS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RWERS1

ABSTRACT: Effects of the 1993 flood on river water and sediment quality were investigated using historical data and data collected from the Illinois River and Upper Mississippi River in a post‐flood period. Overall the post‐flood results showed systematic reductions and individual changes in the water and sediment constituents. The reductions in sediment metals and nutrients were most obvious at the Keokuk and Lock and Dam 26 stations. By analyzing and comparing the physical changes to the changes in water and sediment constituents at each station, it was found that physical processes such as sediment entrainment and, more importantly, the removal of fine sediment to be the main causes for the reduced concentrations in sediment constituents. On the other hand, sediment redistribution and associated secondary contamination could have caused the emergence of several water and sediment constituents that were undetected before the flood.     

岷江上游生态脆弱性驱动力分析

作为长江上游重要的生态屏障,岷江上游是典型的生态环境脆弱区。选取了测度岷江上游生态脆弱性的20个指标、25个样本年的2500个数据,采用逆向测度法构建了岷江上游生态脆弱性的测度指标体系,运用因子分析法得到了影响岷江上游的六大驱动因子:生态环境背景状况、人口承载与结构水平状况、水土流失状况、土地垦殖与利用状况、产业结构水平状况、投资水平与结构状况,为岷江上游生态脆弱区恢复重建及经济社会发展提供了科学依据。     

大伙房水库上游矿产企业的潜在风险研究

对大伙房水库上游矿产企业尾矿库进行样品采集,分析其矿渣及渗滤液特征污染因子含量,并与库区沉积物中重金属含量进行比对,结果表明:金矿、铜矿的尾矿库对水库水质安全潜在威胁较大,铁矿次之,分析其污染成因,提出防范措施。     

联合上限法和主应力法确定模具表面压力分布的研究(Ⅰ)

提出了一种联合上限法(Upper Bound Method)和主应力法(Slab Method)确定模具与金属接触表面压力分布的方法.这是一种基于利用上限法确定金属流动和变形区,然后根据主应力法原理计算接触面压力分布的方法,简称UBM/SM联合法.这种方法较其它方法简便,而且能给出计算压力分布的解析式.本文阐述该法的基本原理,并用它计算杯形件反挤时凸凹模表面的压力分布.     

Environmental Impact on Coastal Waters off Rio De Janeiro Due to Sewage Discharge via Submarine Outfall

A survey was made in an area of 28 km² around the outlest of Ipanema's submarine outfall in order to evaluate the impact of the raw domestic sewage effluent on coastal waters. Nutrient concentrations, dissolved oxygen, particulate matter and other physico-chemical parameters were measured monthly for 15 months. Copper and lead concentrations were also determined for two of the samplings.

The outfall has been in operation for 18 years, and the parameters measured within the observation area appear to be in steady state. From the observed radial concentration gradients within the survey area, a real extension of the steady state distribution of particulate matter and of sewage-derived nitrogen was estimated. the stationary cloud of particulate organic matter was about 150 km². From its total inventory and the discharge rate, a mean residence time of the particles in the sea of 56 days is estimated, prior to their being decomposed by bacterial action or settling to the bottom. for sewage derived N (as ammonia or nitrate), the steady state amount (above background) covers an area of about 60 km² and leads to a mean residence time of 5 ± 1 days in the ocean. Phosphorus is readily absorbed by the phytoplankton.

The presence of temperature gradients established by cold upwelling waters controls the dispersion of the sewage material and the rising of the sewage plume to the surface waters.     

联合上限法和主应力法(UBM/SM法)确定模具表面压力分布的研究(Ⅱ)

本文根据前文所提联合上限法和主应力法确定模具表面压力分布的基础原理,计算了圆柱坯料正挤压和十字头锻件镦挤时模具表面的压力分布,所得结果与测定值很吻合,进一步证明了UBM/SM法实际应用的可靠性.