顾及模型误差的基坑位移监测数据处理方法

由于基坑地质及观测环境的多样性和复杂性,基坑位移监测数据处理的理论模型与实际模型之间存在着模型误差。若模型误差显著,则所得位移拟合模型的精度较差,将影响后继变形分析的准确性。针对这一问题进行了深入研究,提出了顾及模型误差的最小二乘配置法,并指出在考虑观测值中可能存在粗差的情况下应进一步采用稳健估计法改善基坑监测面的拟合精度。推导了顾及基坑位移模型误差的最小二乘配置法的计算公式,说明了计算步骤。通过对多个实例的计算分析可知,该方法对基坑监测面拟合模型的精度增益能达到35%~48%,是一种比较实用的基坑位移监测数据处理方法。     

Looking forward: Disasters at 40

This paper reflects on contemporary studies of and responses to disasters, highlighting the importance of historical, spatial, and intersectional modes of analysis, and draws on the author's ongoing research on Southern‐led and local community responses to displacement in the Middle East. Acknowledging the plurality of ‘international communities of response’, it begins by critiquing the depiction of selected responses to disasters as ‘positive’ ‘paradigm shifts’, including in reference to the ‘localisation of aid, and the United Nations’ Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan for Syria. Next it turns to three key themes that are central to disasters studies: migration; forced displacement; and Southern‐led responses to disasters. Among other things, the paper argues that exploring the principles and modalities of South–South cooperation, rather than promoting the incorporation of Southern actors into the ‘international humanitarian system’ via the localisation agenda, presents a critical opportunity for studies of and responses to disasters.     

基于钻杆推力法结合钻杆位移预测围岩应力的研究

为准确预测矿井冲击地压的发生规律,基于钻杆推力法结合钻杆位移理论,建立钻杆力学模型,利用新型钻削设备,结合钻削采集测试试验。根据试验数据绘出在不同围压轴压下推力、位移随时间的变化曲线,对应力变化进行预测。根据建立动力学模型及公式推导进而得出预测冲击地压的规律,通过测试钻杆推力估算煤体应力的大小,进而预测冲击地压的危险性。研究结果为煤矿动力灾害预测预报提供一定的理论与实验基础。     

Manipulation of density and viscosity for the optimization of DNAPL recovery by alcohol flooding

Laboratory experiments demonstrate that in situ recovery of pooled tetrachloroethene (PCE) from porous media may be accomplished more efficiently using multiple-step alcohol floods than with single alcohol floods. To optimize flooding efficiency while maintaining a low risk of downward DNAPL mobilization, a three-step flooding process is developed employing an isobutanol preflood, a composite alcohol mainflood, and a polymer solution postflood. The density and viscosity of these solutions are manipulated to prevent the onset and propagation of viscous and gravitational fingers, while maintaining phase behavior critical for efficient miscible NAPL displacement. An aqueous partitioning preflood solution of 10% by volume (10% v) isobutanol reduces the NAPL density in situ to approximately 1.00 g/ml by swelling the NAPL prior to miscible displacement induced by the mainflood. The composite alcohol mainflood, containing 65% v ethylene glycol and 35% v 1-propanol maintains miscibility while achieving neutral buoyancy and near stable displacement of the NAPL. Aqueous solutions of xanthan gum polymer efficiently displace the mainflood, reducing viscous fingering associated with waterfloods. Two-dimensional experiments using the multiple-step technique achieve 99.8% DNAPL mass recovery using a total of 0.45 pore volumes of alcohol, illustrating greater recovery efficiency than previous alcohol flooding formulations under comparable conditions.     

A systematic review of snake translocations to identify potential tactics for reducing postrelease effects

Advancements in the field of reintroduction biology are needed, but understanding of how to effectively conduct translocations, particularly with snakes, is lacking. We conducted a systematic review of snake translocation studies to identify potential tactics for reducing postrelease effects. We included studies on intentional, human-mediated, wild–wild, or captive–wild translocations to any location, regardless of motive or number of snakes translocated. Only studies that presented results for at least 1 of 4 outcomes (movement behavior, site fidelity, survival, or population establishment) were included. We systematically searched 4 databases for published studies and used 5 methods to search the gray literature. Our search and screening criteria yielded 121 data sources, representing 130 translocation cases. We quantified the association between 15 translocation tactics and short-term translocation outcomes by calculating odds ratios and used forest plots to display results. Snake translocations involved 47 species (from mainly 2 families), and most were motivated by research, were monitored for at least 6 months, occurred in North America, and took place from the 1990s onward. The odds of a positive snake translocation outcome were highest with release of captive reared or juvenile snakes, release of social groups together, delayed release, provision of environmental enrichment or social housing before release, or minimization of distance translocated. The odds of a positive outcome were lowest when snakes were released early in their active season. Our results do not demonstrate causation, but outcomes of snake translocation were associated with 8 tactics (4 of which were strongly correlated). In addition to targeted comparative studies, we recommend practitioners consider the possible influence of these tactics when planning snake translocations.     

火源位置对轻型门式刚架竖向位移的影响

为探究总火源功率相同时,两个火源相对位置变化对轻型门式刚架竖向位移的影响规律,采用经实验验证过的有限元方法对其进行瞬态非线性热-结构耦合数值模拟,研究了大功率火灾下单个火源、两个火源位置变化对门式刚架的温度分布以及竖向位移的影响。结果表明:保持火灾总功率30 MW不变时,在单一火源作用下火源位于跨中时刚架位移最大,在两火源作用下,15 MW-15 MW的火源组合最危险、刚架的破坏时间随火源相对距离的增大而增大,功率较大的火源位于临界位置比功率较小的火源位于临界位置有利。且功率较大的火源位于临界位置时,火源相对位置变化对刚架竖向位移的影响不显著,而功率较小的火源位于临界位置时, 影响显著。     

地震作用下滑坡永久位移预测

在地震区滑坡防治结构的抗震设计中,滑坡体自身的稳定安全性可利用其地震作用下产生的永久位移直接判断,可见对其地震永久变形的预测至关重要。因此,以极限分析上限定理为基础,分别针对平移式和旋转式两种滑坡滑移形式,推导出这两种滑移形式下滑坡体产生永久位移的临界加速度,考虑地震输入能量及结构能量耗散之间的平衡关系并建立预测地震作用下滑坡永久位移的计算方法。最后,通过算例表明其合理性。     

预制空心板受火后力学性能的试验研究

为比较不同受火时间后预制空心板剩余承载力、跨中挠度和破坏形态的异同,进行了6块预制空心板受火后力学性能的对比试验研究,其中3块为未受火的对比试件,另3块为板底分别受火23、38、53min的试件。受火试验结果表明,各试件在升温过程中的跨中挠度随受火时间增加而显著增加,熄火自然冷却后,跨中挠度大部分可恢复。加载试验结果表明,对比试件和受火试件的最终破坏模式均为弯曲破坏;随着受火时间延长,试件开裂荷载和破坏荷载均有所降低,且破坏荷载与受火时间大致呈线性关系;受火试件初始弯曲刚度较对比试件明显降低,相同荷载作用下,受火试件受拉边缘拉应变和受压边缘压应变,均明显大于对比试件。     

饱和砂土地震液化后地面大位移特性研究

地震引起的地基液化常会造成地基大的侧向变形而导致灾难性的破坏,饱水砂土液化后的变形特性是地震液化大位移研究的基础。通过全自动多功能三轴仪的空心样动加载液化后的静扭剪试验,对饱水砂土液化后大变形特性进行了试验研究。结果表明,与常规静加载特性不同,饱水砂土液化后静加载时表现出单调剪胀的特性,加载初始阶段孔压基本不变,应变达到一定幅度后孔压一直减小,液化后变形曲线可分为低强度段和强度恢复段。低强度段模量近乎为零,强度恢复段试样强度不断增长。低强度段是液化后大变形发生的主要阶段。     

长江三角洲农牧系统结构的区域差异及空间位移研究

调整农业结构,实现农业增效、农民增收农业可持续发展,以确保中国中长期食物安全,是中国目前和未来农业和农村工作的重点。农业结构的调整,必须建立在对系统整体认识的基础上,必须符合系统结构本身的演变规律。为此,作者于1996－1999年,以中国经济发达的长江三角洲农区为例,通过资料调研、专家咨询、农户调查、实地考察和试验等手段。对该区1980－1997年以来71个县市的农业生产进行了全面的调查。利用基于GIS的农牧系统综合评价系统,对长江三角洲农牧系统结构的区域差异和空间布局变化进行了全面分析。结果显示,长江三角洲农牧系统结构存在显著的空间梯度差异,布局上出现了明显的空间位移,农业重心开始向南北推移。棉花、小麦和玉米均向北部集中,生猪和家禽向北部和中部的东北部集中,农业生产呈现出显著的区域性专业化布局格式。