不同地区经济增长与环境污染关系的VAR模型分析——基于广州、佛山、肇庆经济圈的实证研究

利用向量自回归(VAR)计量技术对广州.佛山一肇庆(简称"广佛肇")经济圈各城市表征环境污染的指标(工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量和工业固废产生量)和表征经济增长的指标(人均GDP)的时序数据进行脉冲响应函数及预测方差分解分析,研究处于工业化后期的广州、佛山市及工业化前期的肇庆市经济发展与环境污染在时序维度上的关系及其...     

Low-carbon transition of iron and steel industry in China: Carbon intensity,economic growth and policy intervention

As the biggest iron and steel producer in the world and one of the highest CO₂ emission sectors, China's iron and steel industry is undergoing a low-carbon transition accompanied by remarkable technological progress and investment adjustment, in response to the macroeconomic climate and policy intervention. Many drivers of the CO₂ emissions of the iron and steel industry have been explored, but the relationships between CO₂ abatement, investment and technological expenditure, and their connections with the economic growth and governmental policies in China, have not been conjointly and empirically examined. We proposed a concise conceptual model and an econometric model to investigate this crucial question. The results of regression, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis indicated that technological expenditure can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions, and that investment expansion showed a negative impact on CO₂ emission reduction. It was also argued with empirical evidence that a good economic situation favored CO₂ abatement in China's iron and steel industry, while achieving CO₂ emission reduction in this industrial sector did not necessarily threaten economic growth. This shed light on the dispute over balancing emission cutting and economic growth. Regarding the policy aspects, the year 2000 was found to be an important turning point for policy evolution and the development of the iron and steel industry in China. The subsequent command and control policies had a significant, positive effect on CO₂ abatement.     

Low-carbon transition of iron and steel industry in China: Carbon intensity,economic growth and policy intervention

As the biggest iron and steel producer in the world and one of the highest CO2 emission sectors, China’s iron and steel industry is undergoing a low-carbon transition accompanied by remarkable technological progress and investment adjustment, in response to the macroeconomic climate and policy intervention. Many drivers of the CO2 emissions of the iron and steel industry have been explored, but the relationships between CO2 abatement,investment and technological expenditure, and their connections with the economic growth and governmental policies in China, have not been conjointly and empirically examined. We proposed a concise conceptual model and an econometric model to investigate this crucial question. The results of regression, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis indicated that technological expenditure can significantly reduce CO2 emissions, and that investment expansion showed a negative impact on CO2 emission reduction. It was also argued with empirical evidence that a good economic situation favored CO2 abatement in China’s iron and steel industry, while achieving CO2 emission reduction in this industrial sector did not necessarily threaten economic growth.This shed light on the dispute over balancing emission cutting and economic growth.Regarding the policy aspects, the year 2000 was found to be an important turning point for policy evolution and the development of the iron and steel industry in China. The subsequent command and control policies had a significant, positive effect on CO2 abatement.     

基于VAR模型的南京市经济增长与环境污染关系的实证研究

基于南京市1985年-2013年经济增长与环境污染的相关数据,建立经济增长与环境污染的VAR模型.在VAR模型估计的基础上,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解对南京市经济增长与环境污染之间的双向作用机制进行分析.研究发现:南京市经济增长与环境污染之间存在双向作用机制,且环境对经济增长的反作用与经济增长对环境的影响相比要大;二氧化硫和工业固体废弃物为南京市经济增长过程中环境污染的主要表现形式,而烟尘为制约南京市经济增长的主要污染物.针对分析结果,提出优化产业结构配置,重科研引技术、提升自主创新,加大环保投入、完善环保法规等政策建议.