Predicting land cover using GIS, Bayesian and evolutionary algorithm methods

Modelling land cover change from existing land cover maps is a vital requirement for anyone wishing to understand how the landscape may change in the future. In order to test any land cover change model, existing data must be used. However, often it is not known which data should be applied to the problem, or whether relationships exist within and between complex datasets. Here we have developed and tested a model that applied evolutionary processes to Bayesian networks. The model was developed and tested on a dataset containing land cover information and environmental data, in order to show that decisions about which datasets should be used could be made automatically. Bayesian networks are amenable to evolutionary methods as they can be easily described using a binary string to which crossover and mutation operations can be applied. The method, developed to allow comparison with standard Bayesian network development software, was proved capable of carrying out a rapid and effective search of the space of possible networks in order to find an optimal or near-optimal solution for the selection of datasets that have causal links with one another. Comparison of land cover mapping in the North-East of Scotland was made with a commercial Bayesian software package, with the evolutionary method being shown to provide greater flexibility in its ability to adapt to incorporate/utilise available evidence/knowledge and develop effective and accurate network structures, at the cost of requiring additional computer programming skills. The dataset used to develop the models included GIS-based data taken from the Land Cover for Scotland 1988 (LCS88), Land Capability for Forestry (LCF), Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA), the soil map of Scotland and additional climatic variables.     

Use of Descriptors of Ecosystem Functioning for Monitoring a National Park Network: A Remote Sensing Approach

Baseline assessments and monitoring of protected areas are essential for making management decisions, evaluating the effectiveness of management practices, and tracking the effects of global changes. For these purposes, the analysis of functional attributes of ecosystems (i.e., different aspects of the exchange of matter and energy) has advantages over the traditional use of structural attributes, like a quicker response to disturbances and the fact that they are easily monitored through remote sensing. In this study, we described the spatiotemporal patterns of different aspects of the ecosystem functioning of the Spanish national parks and their response to environmental changes between 1982 and 2006. To do so, we used the NOAA/AVHRR-GIMMS dataset of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a linear estimator of the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation intercepted by vegetation, which is the main control of carbon gains. Nearly all parks have significantly changed during the last 25 years: The radiation interception has increased, the contrast between the growing and nongrowing seasons has diminished, and the dates of maximum and minimum interception have advanced. Some parks concentrated more changes than others and the degree of change varied depending on their different environmental conditions, management, and conservation histories. Our approach identified reference conditions and temporal changes for different aspects of ecosystem functioning, which can be used for management purposes of protected areas in response to global changes.     

Regional impervious surface estimation: an urban heat island application

This paper describes a GIS-based estimation method that can be used to forecast future amounts of impervious surface as a mitigation measure for urban heat island effect in a metropolitan region. The method is unique because it employs a regression model that links the existing amount of impervious surface to population and employment at the census tract level. This approach provides a means to forecast future amounts of impervious surface based on projected population and employment. The method also includes a detailed analysis of high-resolution aerial photography to divide impervious surfaces into different categories. Subdividing impervious surfaces is necessary to evaluate potential urban heat island mitigation policies for different types of impervious surface. The analysis here shows that the impervious surface in the metropolitan Atlanta region will increase to 2638 km2 2. “The Albedo is defined as the hemispherical reflectivity averaged over the solar spectrum. A perfect reflector has a = 1, and a perfect absorber has a = 0” (Pomerantz et al. 1999 Pomerantz, M. 1999. Reflective surfaces for cooler buildings and cities. Philosophical magazine B, 79: 1457–1476. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], p. 1458). View all notes in 2030, an increase of 45% from 2000. The most common type of impervious surface is dark-coloured pavement. Within this study area, the analyses showed that two-thirds of impervious surfaces are dark. Replacing dark pavement with light pavement materials, therefore, represents an important opportunity to mitigate the urban heat island effect in the Atlanta region.     

Arsenic concentration in porewater of an alkaline coal ash disposal site: Roles of siderite precipitation/dissolution and soil cover

The geochemical behavior of As in porewaters of an alkaline coal ash disposal site was investigated using multilevel samplers. The disposal site was in operation from 1983 until 1994 and was covered with 0.3–0.5 m thick soils in 2001 when this study was initiated. Sequential extraction analyses and batch leaching experiments were also performed using the coal ash samples collected from the disposal site. The results suggest the important roles of siderite (FeCO₃) precipitation/dissolution and soil cover, which have been ignored previously. Arsenic levels in the porewater were very low (average of 10 μg L⁻¹) when the site was covered with soil due to coprecipitation with siderite. The soil cover enabled the creation of anoxic conditions, which raised the Fe concentration by the reductive dissolution of Fe-(hydr)oxides. Because of the high alkalinity generated from the alkaline coal ash, even a small increase in the Fe concentration (0.66 mg L⁻¹ on average) could cause siderite precipitation. When the soil cover was removed, however, an oxidizing condition was created and triggered the precipitation of dissolved Fe as (hydr)oxides. As a result, the dissolution of previously precipitated As-rich siderite caused higher As concentration in the porewater (average of 345 μg L⁻¹).     

Vegetation and outdoor recess time at elementary schools: What are the connections?

Empirical and anecdotal evidence suggests that landscapes with more vegetation have a positive impact on children's focus, attention, and cognitive development. In school, children are able to regain focus, suppress impulses, and pay attention in class longer after exposure to natural settings. Because children spend much of their time in school, the amount and types of vegetation on school grounds may influence their development. Public elementary schools in the Commonwealth of Virginia (N = 988) were surveyed to examine correlations between school ground vegetation and outside recess. The number of trees on school grounds, the size of the school grounds, and the presence of sports fields were modestly correlated with greater outside recess time. These correlations support common sense because sports fields facilitate supervised play and larger school grounds provide space for sports fields and playgrounds and additional opportunities for free play. More trees on school grounds provide a welcoming environment for students and teachers, and encourage outside play. These results may help school personnel design and maintain school grounds that increase outdoor recess time.     

From land cover change to land function dynamics: a major challenge to improve land characterization

Land cover change has always had a central role in land change science. This central role is largely the result of the possibilities to map and characterize land cover based on observations and remote sensing. This paper argues that more attention should be given to land use and land functions and linkages between these. Consideration of land functions that provide a wide range of goods and services makes more integrated assessments of land change possible. The increasing attention to multifunctional land use is another incentive to develop methods to assess changes in land functions. A number of methods to quantify and map the spatial extent of land use and land functions are discussed and the implications for modeling are identified based on recent model approaches in land change science. The mixed use of land cover, land use and land function in maps and models leads to inconsistencies in land change assessments. Explicit attention to the non-linear relations between land cover, land use and land function is essential to consistently address land change. New methods to map and quantify land function dynamics will enhance our ability to understand and model land system change and adequately inform policies and planning.     

提高乌鲁木齐市水磨沟区植被覆盖率的设想

通过对乌鲁木齐市水磨沟区植被的现状调查和对存在问题的分析,结合生态示范区建设指标体系,提出提高该区植被覆盖率及改善生态环境的设想。     

Land Cover Changes as a Result of Environmental Restrictions on Nitrate Leaching in Dairy Farming

Nitrate leaching forms an important environmental problem because it causes pollution of groundwater and surface water, and adds to already problematic eutrophication. This study analyses the impact of reductions in nitrate leaching on land cover decisions of dairy farms, of which the activities make an important contribution to nitrate leaching. As the level of nitrate leaching depends on groundwater depth as well as on the supply of nitrogen, spatial variation in groundwater levels will cause a spatial variation in land cover under restrictions on nitrate leaching. A non-linear partial optimisation model for the economic and ecological aspects of the problem were used to show how land cover and dairy farms' financial balances change when nitrate losses are reduced. The model is spatially explicit, and describes nitrate leakage and yields of maize and grass as a function of groundwater depth, including the effects of various grazing systems. The model analyses the decisions of a risk neutral agent who minimises costs under the following constraints: (i) production, feed requirements and mass balances for fodder; (ii) constraints for nitrate leaching. Economic costs are attributed to increased costs of fodder and processing of manure when nitrate restrictions are tightened. An important result of the study is the variation in compliance costs and land cover for maize and grass production brought about by spatial variation in groundwater depth. While the effects are negligible for some shallow groundwater classes, it is extremely difficult in other classes – if not impossible – to obtain the EU standard of maximum admissible losses of 34 kg N ha^–1 at low costs. The study shows an important reduction in land cover by maize.     

常州地区植被排放VOC的估算研究

通过对2011年常州地区各类植物VOC排放因子,以及各类植被分布面积等数据统计分析,采用BEIS模型为参考的估算方法,建立起常州地区植被VOC的排放清单。结果表明,植被所排放VOC的变化规律既与植物本身有关又与气温和太阳辐射有关,区域内年植被VOC的总排放量为1．13×104 t。     

扬州市土地利用与覆盖的遥感监测

应用遥感技术监测分析扬州市2009—2012年土地利用与覆盖状况。结果表明,扬州市土地利用及覆盖以耕地、城乡工矿居民用地及水域为主,主要生态红线区土地覆盖类型未发生人为改变,生态环境状况总体良好,呈略有改善的态势。提出,应坚持开展污染治理和生态建设,优化发展空间,统筹城乡建设用地管理。