非金属材料的氙灯曝露试验概述

氙灯曝露试验是非金属材料的耐候性和耐光性测试的主要方法之一,本文着重介绍了氙灯曝露试验的原理、试验条件在当前的氙灯曝露试验设备上的物理实现、主要的氙灯试验标准以及氙灯曝露试验应考虑的因素.     

雷击火形成及预防扑救对策

雷击火作为天然火源是一种难以控制的自然现象,其形成机理极为复杂。雷击火与雷暴的活动密切相关。     

灰霾天气条件下天津市环境空气中颗粒物污染特征分析

针对天津地区灰霾天气条件下环境空气中颗粒物的污染程度及变化特征进行分析。指出出现灰霾天气是污染加重的直观反映,将其发展成为一项环保指标,将对大气污染控制起到一定的积极作用。     

Communicating uncertainty via probabilities: The case of weather forecasts

Capturing uncertainty through numerical probabilistic statements is orthodoxy in risk science—and most of science and technology. There are a wide range of views on the utility of such statements for risk communication, and they are often seen as being central to the failure to generate common understanding about risks between science and non-scientists. The extent to which probability statements are understood is unclear. If such statements are misunderstood by many, what alternatives might communicate uncertainty better?These questions are examined in the context of daily weather forecasts. The probabilities used in such statements concern daily events experienced by everyone, unlike the extremely small probabilities about unfamiliar events often used in risk communication. If people do not understand weather forecasts, there is little hope that statements about unfamiliar events using unfamiliar language will be understood. Some jurisdictions use numerical probabilistic statements on the likelihood of precipitation, and a variety of qualitative or categorical forecasts are also used. Drawing on a range of sources including public surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the paper examines public understanding of probabilities and public and specialist understanding of verbal categorical forecast terms.The majority of those surveyed have basic understanding about probabilities as used in weather forecasts, but significant groups do not. However, there was limited agreement among forecasters on what the probabilistic statements meant. Similarly, there was limited shared meaning between forecasters and the public on the verbal forecast expression examined.     

特殊天气过程对大气污染物浓度的影响

本文采用绵阳市１９８２年秋季－１９８９年秋季大气例行监测的ＳＯ２浓度值和采样时段的天气过程分析特殊天气过程对大气污染物浓度的影响。     

Parameterization of the roughness length over the sea in forced and free convection

In the condition of free convection, the Charnock relation is inadequate. In this paper we extend the Charnock relation to include the effect of free convection on the roughness length. As a result, the singularity in the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory can be avoided. This paper shows two approaches to derive the roughness length formula in the forced and free convections. The first approach is based on the mixing length theory and the use of the observational data of the vertical velocity variance. We introduce a new vertical velocity scale based on the vertical velocity variance; this velocity variance is well behaved in the atmospheric boundary layer and easy to obtain from field experiments. The second approach is based on the theoretical framework of Sykes et al. (Q R Met Soc, 119: 409–421). From that framework, we develop a theory to obtain the roughness length formula. The results of these two approaches are in agreement with each other. In the past, a multiplication factor associated with free convection was considered to be a constant. This paper shows that this multiplication factor is, in fact, also dependent on the depth of the mixing height. In previous studies, experimental works were often conducted without taking into account the depth of the mixing height. Not taking into account the mixing height in the estimation of the roughness length in free convection would result in an inaccurate estimate of the roughness length and hence the drag coefficient. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Crime,weather, and climate change

This paper estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of criminal activity in the United States. The analysis is based on a 30-year panel of monthly crime and weather data for 2997 US counties. I identify the effect of weather on monthly crime by using a semi-parametric bin estimator and controlling for state-by-month and county-by-year fixed effects. The results show that temperature has a strong positive effect on criminal behavior, with little evidence of lagged impacts. Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 cases of vehicle theft in the United States.     

Information sources for flash flood warnings in Denver, CO and Austin, TX

This research examines sources of information for flash floods in two large metropolitan areas, Denver, CO, and Austin, TX. Previous research has noted that information delivery systems for weather forecasts are geared toward the cultural majority and suggests that inadequate warnings are a primary contributor to deaths and injuries from hazards. This investigation used chi-square analysis to determine the prime warning source preferences and preferred time of day for receiving different media. Results indicate that successful warning messages need to be targeted toward specific sub-populations if the warning is to be received, understood, and responded to properly.     

MODERNIZATION OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTING TECHNIQUES1

The National Weather Service is nearing the conclusion of a five year period of transition from index type catchment modelling to the use of conceptual hydrologic models. The decision to make this technological change was based on an extensive research project in which various catchment models were tested in a wide variety of basins and their strong and weak points ascertained. This project is described. Some of the problems involved in the changeover, which are discussed, are practical parameter optimization methods, computer requirements for the more complex technology, data requirements, fitting of the catchment model to major river systems, training of personnel and staffing problems.