重庆近48年来高温天气气候特征及其环流形势

利用重庆23个气象观测站1960~2007年逐日最高气温观测资料,NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集中的高度场格点资料,运用EOF、REOF等方法,探讨重庆高温日数的空间分布特征,并对多高温天气的2006年和少高温天气年7~8月的环流特征进行了分析。结果表明：重庆高温天气主要出现在7~8月份,高温日数具有显著的年代际和区域性差异,20世纪70年代最多,80年代最少,沿长江、乌江为高温多发带。一致性异常分布是重庆高温日数的最主要空间模态;高温日数的异常空间分布可分为以下3个关键区：重庆中西部、重庆东南部、重庆东北部。乌拉尔山至鄂霍次克海地区阻塞高压偏弱,东亚大槽偏浅;100 hPa 高空南亚高压偏东,500 hPa 高空副高偏北偏西,形成一种上高下高的叠加形势是重庆7~8月出现多高温天气的主要原因。     

Agricultural policies and the emergence of cotton as the dominant crop in northern Côte d'Ivoire: Historical overview and current outlook

In most of sub‐Saharan Africa, where the agricultural sector experiences dismal performance and is characterized by a gloomy picture, the cotton sub‐sector in Côte d’Ivoire is often mentioned as a “success story” given the spectacular rise in the quantity of cotton production and the profile of the crop within the farming system. What are the historical and political antecedents of the development of cotton and the factors responsible for the feat accomplished in the midst of general failures in the same continent? To what extent can cotton be regarded as a “success story” and, what lessons can be drawn for agricultural development strategies based on the Ivorian case study? This paper traces the historical and socio‐political background of cotton development in Côte d’Ivoire and identifies key policy and institutional interventions that have influenced the rise of cotton production and its emergence as the dominant crop in the farming systems of the country. Four stages in Ivorian cotton development are identified: planning, take off, crisis and the renaissance phases. The study demonstrates how a combination of good planning, technological advancement and appropriate policy and institutional conditions have contributed significantly to the rise of cotton production and its influence on the agricultural economy of northern Côte d’Ivoire. The study also highlights how the sustainability of agricultural development has been impacted by domestic and international policies and political events over which smallholder farm families have little control, and can at best only respond to. Important questions about cotton development in Côte d'Ivoire are raised that need to be answered before the program can be categorized conclusively as a success story. The study shows that there are no quick fixes to agricultural development in the sub‐region. Rather, good planning and putting the necessary building blocks in place are important prerequisites. It is recommended that agricultural development efforts in the continent take cognizance of the complexity of the sector and address the inter‐relationships that exist among the technical, policy, market and institutional factors that combine individually and collectively to influence African agriculture.     

Natural Resource Assessment: An Approach to Science Based Planning in National Parks

We conducted a natural resource assessment at two national parks, New River Gorge National River and Shenandoah National Park, to help meet the goals of the Natural Resource Challenge—a program to help strengthen natural resource management at national parks. We met this challenge by synthesizing and interpreting natural resource information for planning purposes and we identified information gaps and natural significance of resources. We identified a variety of natural resources at both parks as being globally and/or nationally significant, including large expanses of unfragmented, mixed-mesophytic forests that qualify for wilderness protection, rare plant communities, diverse assemblages of neotropical migratory birds and salamanders, and outstanding aquatic recreational resources. In addition, these parks function, in part, as ecological reserves for plants in and wildlife. With these significant natural resources in mind, we also developed a suite of natural resource management recommendations in light of increasing threats from within and outside park boundaries. We hope that our approach can provide a blueprint for natural resource conservation at publically owned lands.     

Analysis of a rural water supply project in three communities in Mali: Participation and sustainability

This paper presents a qualitative assessment of the participatory water management strategies implemented at the community level in rural Mali through a water supply project — The West Africa Water Initiative (WAWI) — coordinated by World Vision International, a non‐governmental and humanitarian organization. Data for the study were generated through a combination of primary and secondary sources in three villages. Results of the study indicate that while community‐based rural water supply is a positive step in responding to the needs of rural Malians, the installation of boreholes with hand pumps informed merely by consultative participatory approaches and limited extension involvement will not necessarily proffer sustainable rural water supply in the region. A “platform” approach to rural water supply management that can mobilize the assets and insights of different social actors to influence decision making at all stages, including the design and choice‐of‐technology stages, in water supply interventions is instead advocated.     

西部大开发中的四川猕猴桃资源优势

通过对四川省猕猴桃资源现状的分析,阐述了四川猕猴桃的资源优势及其人工栽培现状,提出了在西部大开发中发展四川猕猴桃产业化的道路。     

西部开发应坚持可持续发展战略

本文分析了西部地生态环境问题产生的原因,提出了西部生态环境建设的总体思路和战略设想,进一步指出西部不同地区要因地制宜,采取不同的生态环境经济策略,才能在大开发中,实现可持续发展。     

西部湿地资源现状、问题及可持续发展研究——以四川省若尔盖高原湿地为例

湿地是水陆相互作用形成的独特生态系统,合理的开发利用将对西部开发中的生态环境建设直到巨大的作用。本文主要介绍我国西部湿地资源的基本情况、利用现状及存在问题,并以四川省若尔盖地区为例提出了西部湿地资源保护和可持续利用的科学对策。     

西部开发与新疆生态环境保护

开发西部地区已经成为我国一项跨世纪的战略任务,搞好西部地区的生态环境保护是西部大开发的首要任务。新疆地处内陆地区,以典型的绿洲经济为主体,生态环境比较脆弱,人口承载能力比较低;多年来不合理的经济开发活动导致生态环境严重恶化。本文针对新疆生态环境的的现状和主要问题,提出生态环境保护中应遵循的三个主要原则,并提出新疆生态环境保护的八条具体对策。     

Prospective spatial prediction of infectious disease: experience of New York State (USA) with West Nile Virus and proposed directions for improved surveillance

Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.

杭州西湖水体富营养化的控制

本文综述了杭州西湖水体富营养化的状况,并为西湖水体富营养化的控制提出了建议和对策。