输电线路山火跳闸机理的模拟实验研究

山火发生时植被燃烧产生的高温火焰及烟羽流使架空输电线路的空气绝缘性能大幅降低,可能引发导线之间或导线对地面间的击穿放电现象,导致输电线路发生跳闸事故。选取正庚烷与木垛为代表性火源,模拟研究直流高压电在火焰中的击穿放电现象,测量了火焰温度和电阻参数,获得了不同火源条件下放电间隙的击穿电压,分析了火焰参数对间隙击穿场强的影响。实验结果表明,正庚烷和木垛火焰放电实验中,火焰高温和电导率是导致击穿场强下降的主要因素。此外,烟颗粒也会导致击穿场强下降。     

Communities and bushfire hazard in Australia: More questions than answers

The issue of communities and their exposure to bushfire hazard is highly topical internationally. There is a perceived trend of greater exposure to bushfire risk which is exacerbated by increased levels of building in fire-prone areas or peri-urban regions. There is a need to clarify what we understand to be peri-urban regions, and how we conceptualise and describe the communities that reside in them, in order that efficient and effective services are provided. However, more questions arise for us. For example: Where are these communities located? What do we know about the people who live there? What are the implications for bushfire mitigation? Despite being problematic, locality remains important to the understanding of communities, bushfire hazard and delivery of services.     

Modelling the potential damage-reducing benefits of flood warnings using European cases

In most OECD countries, emergency response to accidents and natural disasters is very dependent on a trained workforce of emergency services volunteers: fire, rescue, medical, care and relief. With its large area, sparsely settled population, and frequent periods of low rainfall, Australia is particularly vulnerable to the threat posed by wildfires. There are an estimated 220,000 rural fire volunteers (in a population of 20 million) in eight state and territory volunteer rural fire services. These fire services have experienced significant decreases in volunteer numbers over the past decade, a trend which is true also of North American volunteer fire services. An investigation suggests that the decrease is driven by two related sets of factors: economic and demographic. Globalisation and deregulation of the economy, and technological innovation, have resulted in structural changes in the nature of work: privatisation, casualisation, self-employment, and demands for increased productivity. These factors make it more difficult for members of communities to volunteer, regardless of their motivation to do so. Further, like many other OECD countries, Australia's birth rate has fallen over the last three decades, resulting in a decline in the proportion of the population aged between 25 and 45 years—a trend that is unlikely to be reversed in the foreseeable future. These economic and demographic changes make it difficult for Australian volunteer rural fire agencies to meet their community protection responsibilities. Responding to these challenges may require radical changes in the way that these fire services are organised and supported.     

Situating Hazard Vulnerability: People’s Negotiations with Wildfire Environments in the U.S. Southwest

This article is based on a multimethod study designed to clarify influences on wildfire hazard vulnerability in Arizona’s White Mountains, USA. Findings reveal that multiple factors operating across scales generate socially unequal wildfire risks. At the household scale, conflicting environmental values, reliance on fire insurance and firefighting institutions, a lack of place dependency, and social vulnerability (e.g., a lack of financial, physical, and/or legal capacity to reduce risks) were found to be important influences on wildfire risk. At the regional-scale, the shift from a resource extraction to environmental amenity-based economy has transformed ecological communities, produced unequal social distributions of risks and resources, and shaped people’s social and environmental interactions in everyday life. While working-class locals are more socially vulnerable than amenity migrants to wildfire hazards, they have also been more active in attempting to reduce risks in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire. Social tensions between locals and amenity migrants temporarily dissolved immediately following the disaster, only to be exacerbated by the heightened perception of risk and the differential commitment to hazard mitigation displayed by these groups over a 2-year study period. Findings suggest that to enhance wildfire safety, environmental managers should acknowledge the environmental benefits associated with hazardous landscapes, the incentives created by risk management programs, and the specific constraints to action for relevant social groups in changing human-environmental context.     

Serving the Common Interest in U.S. Forest Policy: A Case Study of the Healthy Forests Restoration Act

In the United States, the common interest often is conceived as a by-product of the pluralist, interest-group-driven democratic process. Special interests dominate in many political arenas. Consequently, we have lost the language, vocabulary, and ability to talk about the common interest. The way to reverse this trend is to develop and practice with new tools that allow us to articulate what we mean by the common interest in specific contexts. In this article, we leveraged the literature on procedural, substantive, and pragmatic decision making to illustrate how they work together to demonstrate whether and how the common interest was served in three case studies of Healthy Forests Restoration Act implementation on the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest in Arizona. In two of the cases we found that the common interest was mostly served, while in the third case it was not. Our results raise questions about the ability of procedural criteria or substantive criteria alone to determine effectiveness in decision making. When evaluated together they provide a more complete understanding of how the common interest is or is not served.

A two-stage ensemble Kalman filter for smooth data assimilation

The ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) applied to a simple fire propagation model by a nonlinear convection-diffusion-reaction partial differential equation breaks down because the EnKF creates nonphysical ensemble members with large gradients. A modification of the EnKF is proposed by adding a regularization term that penalizes large gradients. The method is implemented by applying the EnKF formulas twice, with the regularization term as another observation. The regularization step is also interpreted as a shrinkage of the prior distribution. Numerical results are given to illustrate success of the new method.     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

Wildfire, landscape diversity and the Drossel-Schwabl model

How simple can a model be that still captures essential aspects of wildfire ecosystems at large spatial and temporal scales? The Drossel-Schwabl model (DSM) is a metaphorical forest-fire model developed to reproduce only one pattern of real systems: a frequency distribution of fire sizes resembling a power law. Consequently, and because it appears oversimplified, it remains unclear what bearings the DSM has in reality. Here, we test whether the DSM is capable of reproducing a pattern that was not considered in its design, the hump-shaped relation between the diversity of succession stages and average annual area burnt. We found that the model, once reformulated to represent succession, produces realistic landscape diversity patterns. We investigated four succession scenarios of forest-fire ecosystems in the USA and Canada. In all scenarios, landscape diversity is highest at an intermediate average annual area burnt as predicted by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. These results show that a model based solely on the dynamics of the fuel mosaic has surprisingly high predictive power with regard to observed statistical properties of wildfire systems at large spatial scales. Parsimonious models, such as the DSM can be used as starting points for systematic development of more structurally realistic but tractable wildfire models. Due to their simplicity they allow analytical approaches that further our understanding under increasing complexity.     

Perceptions of Prescribed Burning in a Local Forest Community in Victoria, Australia

The general perceptions of prescribed burning were elicited from forest users for an area that has been subject to this form of land management for at least 20 years. The largest group consisted of local residents living in and around the Wombat State Forest with two smaller groups of students from a nearby university campus and local professional land managers. A questionnaire was given to each participant in order to explore how the forest was used, to determine the level of knowledge of burning in the targeted forest and Victoria and the perception of the appearance, effectiveness of protection, and accessibility to the forest after prescribed burning. Generally all groups had similar responses with community members having stronger views on the effectiveness and practicalities of prescribed burning, whereas students were more neutral in their opinions. All participants claimed knowledge of prescribed burning activities within Victoria, but fewer had experience of planned fires in the Wombat State Forest. All groups agreed that areas that had not been recently burned had a better appearance than those that had, but this result may have included a range of value judgments. Land managers had a greater understanding of the ecological importance of season and timing of burning; however, some students and community members were equally knowledgeable. Prescribed burning did not impede access to the forest, nor did smoke from prescribed burns pose any great problem. The majority of the participants felt that the amount of prescribed burning done in the forest was adequate for engendering a feeling of protection to life and property, yet many were still suspicious of this management practice. These initial findings indicate several areas in which further research would be useful including the efficacy of education programs for community members and improved communication of burn plans by land managers.     

Wildfire policy and use of science in the context of a socio-ecological system on the Aegean Archipelago

This paper summarizes the results of a primarily qualitative (with certain quantitative elements) socio-ecological study on three Greek islands of the Aegean Archipelago to characterize fire science and policy at regional and local levels, and perceptions of fire risk. Among the most important factors influencing dynamics of fire regimes on the islands are changing land use patterns and practices, and changes in climate and fuel conditions. While use of scientific information is not widespread, there are individuals in all three islands who regularly consult scientific sources. Although fire policy is largely controlled at the national and European Union levels, local activity also occurs, most notably through the volunteer fire fighting organizations, interactions with local officials, and public education efforts. However, though seen as important, significant lack of financial support and resources exist to support prevention and pre-suppression programs. Prevention of fires on the islands, including the use of prescribed burning, is relatively inadequate, and while an intense interest in preventing the loss of communities and ecosystems is frequently encountered, public participation in fire prevention remains limited. The findings suggest that relying on local knowledge, in combination with fire managers’ decision-making abilities, could improve fire management options and reduce wildfire suppression costs and ecological disasters.