Place,human agency and community resilience – considerations for public health management of smoke from prescribed burning

Prescribed burning is now a widely accepted bushfire hazard management strategy. While evidence points to reduced levels of public health harm compared to severe bushfire, smoke created by planned burns remains a community concern with need for evidence-based public health management. Findings are presented from an Australian study of community experiences of prescribed burns, associated smoke, and public health communications. We find that “place” influences how information is received and used for the management of the effects of planned burns; and that this is significant for human agency and community resilience. We provide recommendations for public health management.     

Disaster risk management: Pro-active financing to reduce vulnerability

This study explores the preparedness of residents livingin a rural community in Victoria, Australia, for wildfires, and the factors influencing their preparedness. Overall, participants were well aware of wildfire risks and appeared well prepared for the event of a fire. However, residents involved in agriculture and with a long-standing association with the area appeared better prepared than were those on small properties and newcomers. Their social networks, previous experiences with wildfires and grassfires, and involvement with the local fire brigade influenced preparedness of long-term residents. Characteristics of agricultural communities, including a culture of self-reliance, experience with fires as part of farming, and social cohesion, appeared to contribute to wildfire preparedness within this community. Included are recommendations encouraging preparedness for wildfires.     

Public engagement in neighbourhood level wildfire mitigation and preparedness: case studies from Canada, the US and Australia

This study examined neighbourhood level wildfire mitigation programs being implemented in neighbourhoods in Canada (FireSmart-ForestWise), Australia (Community Fireguard) and the US (Firewise Communities). Semi-structured interviews were completed with 19 residents participating in the programs. A wide range of activities were completed as part of the three programs. Despite differences between the three programs, participants appeared to participate in the programs for three main reasons: Fire experience, agency involvement, and personal and family protection. A fire therefore provides a window of opportunity to engage residents in neighbourhood level wildfire mitigation programs. The neighbourhood level wildfire mitigation programs helped to reduce the wildfire risk, but also enhanced both community resilience and relationships between residents and government agencies.     

Using expert judgments to understand spatial patterns of forest-based camping: a values-at-risk application

Fire management agencies in Canada are mandated with protecting multiple forest values from wildfire. Deciding where to reduce fire hazard and how to allocate resources and fire suppression efforts requires an understanding of the values-at-risk from wildfire. The protection of recreation infrastructure is often assumed to provide adequate protection of recreation values. We use an expert judgment approach to provide a spatial distribution of recreation values-at-risk in the forested eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain region of Alberta, Canada. Data were collected in 2004 from 11 land managers responsible for public lands management and wildfire prevention in the region. Expert assessments showed that recreation values were not confined to areas with publicly funded infrastructure. Exploratory spatial analysis of the ratings identified hotspots and cold spots of recreation activity. Maps resulting from these efforts will provide guidance to fire managers in the prioritization of fire management activities.     

Determining the optimal mix of federal and contract fire crews: A case study from the Pacific Northwest

Federal land management agencies in the United States are increasingly relying on contract crews as opposed to agency fire crews. Despite this increasing reliance on contractors, there have been no studies to determine what the optimal mix of contract and agency fire crews should be. A mathematical model is presented to address this question and is applied to a case study from the Pacific Northwest. Results show that the optimal number of agency crews is sensitive to assumptions about fire season severity and the availability of alternative work for agency crews on nonsuppression days.     

Changes in a reach of a northern California stream following wildfire

One reach of a northern California stream, burned by intense wildfire in 1979, was studied to monitor changes and recovery from the fire. Benthic macroinvertebrates collected three weeks and one to four, six, eight, and 11 years following the wildfire were used to assess stream condition and compared to samples from a reach of a nearby unburned stream. Transportable sediment was measured 11 years following the fire. The fire was also used as a worst case example to compare results with a standard cumulative watershed effects assessment methodology. Benthic invertebrate density and taxa richness of the burned reach were both low compared to the unburned reach three weeks after the fire. Mean density was significantly higher in the burned reach in the three years following the fire, while taxa richness was significantly lower in the burned reach over the same time period. Higher density and lower richness in the burned reaches persisted throughout the study period but were not significant after three years. Mean Shannon diversity of the burned reach was significantly lower than that of the unburned reach for each year of the study, although absolute differences diminished throughout the 11-year study period. Transportable sediment was significantly higher in the burned reach than the unburned comparison. Pearson correlations between sediment and biological metrics were weak. Although the correlation between invertebrate diversity and a measure of watershed disturbance (equivalent roaded acres) was high (r=0.95) for the burned watershed, the measure appeared to be a poor indicator of cumulative effects on stream condition. The measure (ERA) was poorly correlated with invertebrate diversity in the unburned reach and, while the ERA calculations indicated substantial recovery, biological and physical measures indicated recovery of the burned stream reach was incomplete.     

The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone

We estimate the effect of short-term air pollution exposure (PM_2.5 and ozone) on several categories of crime, with a particular emphasis on aggressive behavior. To identify this relationship, we combine detailed daily data on crime, air pollution, and weather for an eight-year period across the United States. Our primary identification strategy employs extremely high dimensional fixed effects and we perform a series of robustness checks to address confounding variation between temperature and air pollution. We find a robust positive effect of increased air pollution on violent crimes, and specifically assaults, but no relationship between increases in air pollution and property crimes. The effects are present in and out of the home, at levels well below Ambient Air Pollution Standards, and PM_2.5 effects are strongest at lower temperatures. The results suggest that a 10% reduction in daily PM_2.5 and ozone could save $1.4 billion in crime costs per year, a previously overlooked cost associated with pollution.     

Fighting fire with fire: estimating the efficacy of wildfire mitigation programs using propensity scores

This paper examines the effect wildfire mitigation has on broad-scale wildfire behavior. Each year, hundreds of million of dollars are spent on fire suppression and fuels management applications, yet little is known, quantitatively, of the returns to these programs in terms of their impact on wildfire extent and intensity. This is especially true when considering that wildfire management influences and reacts to several, often times confounding factors, including socioeconomic characteristics, values at risk, heterogeneous landscapes, and climate. Due to the endogenous nature of suppression effort and fuels management intensity and placement with wildfire behavior, traditional regression models may prove inadequate. Instead, I examine the applicability of propensity score matching (PSM) techniques in modeling wildfire. This research makes several significant contributions including: (1) applying techniques developed in labor economics and in epidemiology to evaluate the effects of natural resource policies on landscapes, rather than on individuals; (2) providing a better understanding of the relationship between wildfire mitigation strategies and their influence on broad-scale wildfire patterns; (3) quantifying the returns to suppression and fuels management on wildfire behavior.

Y2K—a humanitarian disaster? Why not?

Australian bushfire agencies have a position that people in the path of a fire should either prepare, stay and defend their properties, or leave the area well before the fire front arrives. The position is based largely on observations that evacuating at the last minute is often fatal and that, generally, a key factor in house survival during a wildfire is the presence of people in the building. In practice, full implementation of the position has been difficult for a range of reasons.

As part of the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) research effort <www.bushfirecrc.com>, our project is examining the evidence base for this position and aims to suggest ways of improving implementation.

We have found that the available evidence, which goes back some 60 yr, strongly supports the Australian position. The position is supported on the grounds of both improved safety and reduced property loss. The evidence also shows that the most dangerous option—and the cause of most fatalities—is last minute evacuation.