生态城市规划中人口预测--以昆山市生态城市规划为例

生态城市规划中人口预测对于经济发展预测、各个生态专项规划及制定建设决策都具有重要的借鉴意义。结合昆山生态城市规划实例,分析了昆山人口终极规模,并从人口总量、分布、素质和城市化等方面对昆山不同规划期进行人口预测。     

Managing Birds and Controlling Aircraft in the Kennedy Airport–Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge Complex: The Need for Hard Data and Soft Opinions

During the 1980s, the exponential growth of laughing gull (Larus atricilla) colonies, from 15 to about 7600 nests in 1990, in the Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge and a correlated increase in the bird-strike rate at nearby John F. Kennedy International Airport (New York City) led to a controversy between wildlife and airport managers over the elimination of the colonies. In this paper, we review data to evaluate if: (1) the colonies have increased the level of risk to the flying public; (2) on-colony population control would reduce the presence of gulls, and subsequently bird strikes, at the airport; and (3) all on-airport management alternatives have been adequately implemented. Since 1979, most (2987, 87%) of the 3444 bird strikes (number of aircraft struck) were actually bird carcasses found near runways (cause of death unknown but assumed to be bird strikes by definition). Of the 457 pilot-reported strikes (mean = 23 ± 6 aircraft/yr, N= 20 years), 78 (17%) involved laughing gulls. Since a gull-shooting program was initiated on airport property in 1991, over 50,000 adult laughing gulls have been killed and the number of reported bird strikes involving laughing gulls has declined from 6.9 ± 2.9 (1983–1990) to 2.6 ± 1.3 (1991–1998) aircraft/yr; nongull reported bird strikes, however, have more than doubled (6.4 ± 2.6, 1983–1990; 14.9 ± 5.1, 1991–1998). We found no evidence to indicate that on-colony management would yield a reduction of bird strikes at Kennedy Airport. Dietary and mark–recapture studies suggest that 60%–90% of the laughing gulls collected on-airport were either failed breeders and/or nonbreeding birds. We argue that the Jamaica Bay laughing gull colonies, the only ones in New York State, should not be managed at least until all on-airport management alternatives have been properly implemented and demonstrated to be ineffective at reducing bird strikes, including habitat alterations and increasing the capability of the bird control unit to eliminate bird flocks on-airport using nonlethal bird dispersal techniques. Because the gull-shooting program may be resulting in a nonsustainable regional population of laughing gulls (>30% decline), we also recommend that attempts be made to initiate an experimental colony elsewhere on Long Island to determine if colony relocation is a feasible management option.     

广州市城市生活垃圾管理系统规划

运用最小费用规划模型,选取运输费用以及各处理设施（包括垃圾焚烧、制肥、回收利用、 填埋和中转处理）的处理费用为因子,同时把经济收入作为负的费用从中扣除,对选取的三个规划方案进行了计算,得出了广州市市区城市生活垃圾管理系统处理的最低费用,并给出了市属8个区的垃圾量相应的处理设置。     

金坛市饮用水源地保护方案研究

钱资荡是金坛市目前直接饮用水源地,根据环境监测结果,它已处于中营养化后期。借鉴国内外先进的湖泊管理经验,运用系统工程的思想和方法提出了切实可行的金坛市饮用水源地保护方案。该方案由4个工程子系统组成,（1）截污工程：在岸丘桥和南州桥位置各筑一节制闸（而岸丘桥工程又是首选工程）,以封住湖泊两头入流,杜绝污染物进入水源地的截污工程;（2）引水工程：是截污工程的配套工程,利用一游长荡 湖来补充水量,并对3个引水工程设想进行了系统分析,推荐涵管方案,同时将长荡湖作为该市战略水源地一并纳入保护体系中;（3）湿地生态处理工程：对进入荡区前的芦苇区进行综合整治,发展以芦苇为主的湿地生态处理工程;（4）环湖绿色自然保护带工程：包括建设围湖芦苇荡、环湖林带、绿色食品基地以及污泥处置。最后还提出了三级水域保护区范围、水域行政管理体系建设以及工程方案分步实施计划。     

Urban Land-banking Planning: A New Instrument to Regulate Urban Land Supply-demand of Nanjing City

Abstract

It is the major purpose of the paper to present the urban land-banking planning and its functions of promoting the urban land-banking system and land use administration. The urban land-banking system has the potential attribute of acting as an irreplaceable role in urban land administration, but its unexpected function-deviation has impacted its implementation effect in China. A few city governments are attempting to deal with the problem by the urban land-banking planning which is expected to contribute to the extension of urban function, optimization of urban patterns, promotion of urban core competitiveness and overall construction of the urban value chain. In this paper, we primarily discuss the necessity, functions, purposes and main contents of the urban land-banking planning. Subsequently, the implementing situation of the urban land-banking system in Nanjing is analyzed, including its integrated mode, spatio-temporal quantitative distribution and main characteristics. Finally, the background and targets including total, compositions, space, and regulation points are gradually introduced to present the Nanjing land-banking planning version 2.     

基于3S技术的庄河市滨海湿地景观格局演变研究

庄河市位于黄海北部沿海地区,自然海岸线长达285km,拥有丰富的滨海湿地资源,对区域经济的发展具有显著的促进作用.以庄河市2000年和2010年的Landsat TM（或ETM）遥感影像获取研究区的滨海湿地斑块图形数据,选用生态意义较明确的景观特征指数,对庄河市滨海湿地的景观格局变化进行研究.研究结果表明,2000-2010年,庄河市滨海湿地总面积不断缩减,由2000年的131252.60hm2减少到2010年的121489.16hm2,减少幅度为7.44％;湿地斑块数不断增加,由2000年的3425块增加到2010年的3563块;湿地景观多样性指数（H）和景观形状指数（LSI）呈增加趋势,分别由2000年的0.6315和14.0分别增加到2010年的0.8554和18.7;景观优势度指数呈下降趋势,由2000年的0.8359下降到2010年的0.7364,表明庄河市滨海湿地的景观破碎化程度越来越严重.     

A targeted social marketing approach for community pro-environmental behavioural change

Community-level initiatives will play a key role in meeting greenhouse gas reduction targets. This paper examines the experience gained in applying a targeted social marketing approach to foster local-scale community pro-environmental behavioural change in the City of York, UK. This involved determining the neighbourhood carbon footprint, identifying residents that had access to appropriate infrastructure and were receptive to green issues. Six community teams were recruited from the selected neighbourhoods and provided with information, advice and mentoring on how to reduce their carbon footprint over a six-month period. A statistically significant reduction in carbon emissions was achieved. Each participant achieved a mean reduction in their carbon footprint of 2.0 tonnes of CO₂e/year. The largest reductions were achieved in the areas of shopping and home energy. In addition, it helped to foster community spirit. Based on the experience gained from implementing this approach, a cost-effective model of community engagement is proposed.     

乌鲁木齐市饮用水源地中邻苯二甲酸酯健康风险评价

采用美国环保署(US EPA)推荐的健康风险评价模型,对乌鲁木齐市饮用水源地中的邻苯二甲酸酯(PAEs)通过饮水途径致人体健康危害风险进行初步评价。结果显示,乌鲁木齐市地表饮用水源地的2种PAEs[邻苯二甲酸(2-乙基己基)酯(DEHP)和邻苯二四酸二丁酯(DBP)]浓度全部达到《地表水环境质量标准》(GB 3838—2002)特定项目标准限值要求,DEHP总检出率达58.3%~100.0%,DBP总检出率达100%,DEHP通过饮水途径引起的致癌和非致癌总风险数量级达10^(-10)~10^(-8),DBP通过饮水途径引起的非致癌风险数量级达10^(-13)~10^(-11)。乌鲁木齐市地下饮用水源地的DEHP浓度全部达到《地下水质量标准》(GB/T 14848—2017)中Ⅰ类标准限值要求,总检出率达66.7%~100.0%,通过饮水途径引起的总风险数量级分布中,城市集中式饮用水源地为10^(-10)~10^(-9),县城(区)饮用水源地为10^(-10)~10^(-8)。地表和地下饮用水源地的致癌和非致癌总风险均低于US EPA和国际癌症机构(ICRP)的最大可接受风险水平,并低于瑞典环境保护署、荷兰建设和环境署以及英国皇家协会的最大可接受风险水平,处于Ⅰ级,低风险状态。     

基于耗散结构理论的城市生态水平评价研究——以武汉市为例

城市是一个经济-社会-自然复合系统,城市生态环境是城市经济社会持续发展的支持系统。基于耗散结构理论和信息熵原理,通过计算生态经济熵、生态功能熵和城市生态系统总熵变,分析城市生态系统的演化发展规律;利用综合发展度和协调发展度两个指数,建立城市生态水平评价的定量模型。以武汉市1988~2004年城市生态系统发展为例,评价结果表明：（1）武汉城市生态系统的生态经济熵、生态功能熵和城市生态系统总熵变均呈现出下降趋势,城市健康、有序水平不断提高;（2）武汉城市生态系统在经历了1988~1991年停滞发展期后,从1992年开始,生态综合发展水平逐年提升,协调发展水平在不断增加,近10年来都保持在基本协调发展水平。     

北京市大气颗粒物中多环芳烃(PAHs)污染特征

对北京市2003-09～2004-07的10个月空气中的TSP样品进行了连续采样,周期为1次/周.分析了15种3～7环的PAHs,其中以4～5环为主.∑PAHs浓度及BaP的最大值分别达到705 ng/m³和52 ng/m³;春夏秋冬4季∑PAHs的平均浓度分别为46 ng/m³,16 ng/m³,52 ng/m³,268 ng/m³;BaP的4季平均浓度分别为2.8ng/m³,0.23 ng/m³,3.3 ng/m³,16ng/m³;采暖期∑PAHs平均浓度为非采暖期的9.5倍.在所分析的3种气象条件中,降水能够明显降低PAHs的浓度;非采暖期的PAHs浓度随温度的升高而降低,采暖期的浓度与温度没有明显的相关性;采暖期风速水平的增加会导致PAHs浓度的下降,而非采暖期不同环数的PAHs和风速水平的关系各异,3环的PAHs浓度随风速水平增加而增加,4、5环的PAHs浓度变化不大,6、7环PAHs随风速水平的增加而浓度下降.