山东半岛蓝色经济区海洋生态旅游发展研究

发展海洋生态旅游是实现山东半岛蓝色经济区战略的重要途径之一。在SWOT分析的基础上,指出在山东半岛蓝色经济区发展海洋生态旅游必须明确其动力机制,坚持统筹发展战略,从生态保护、社区参与、区域统筹和产业协同四个方面采取具体的对策。     

基于因子分析和聚类分析的江苏十三市环境保护评价研究

本文根据工业废水排放量、工业二氧化硫排放量、工业烟尘排放量、工业废水排放达标率、工业固体废物综合利用率5个指标的统计数据,运用因子分析和聚类分析,对江苏13个市的环境保护状况进行评价,并将其分成5个不同的类别,第1类是苏州,第2类是南京,第3类包括无锡、南通、常州,第4类包括徐州、扬州、泰州、淮安、宿迁,第5类包括盐城、镇江、连云港,然后进一步对各类城市在污染强度和污染控制方面的特征进行分析。最后,分别对每类地区的环境保护提出对策建议。     

秦皇岛市“创模”对策研究及效益分析

介绍了秦皇岛市创建国家环境保护模范城市的意义,重点阐述了完成创模任务的主要对策,包括:构建以旅游业为中心、特色产业互融互促的现代产业体系;加快城乡一体化建设;提升城镇发展质量和水平;加强重大基础设施建设;积极推广清洁能源,深入开展工程节能;积极推进循环经济发展等。秦皇岛市创建国家环境保护模范城市,将会在环境、经济和社会三方面产生明显的综合效益。     

Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande1

Abudu, S., J.P. King, Z. Sheng, 2011. Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 10‐23. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00587.x Abstract: This paper presents the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), transfer function‐noise (TFN), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) modeling approaches in forecasting monthly total dissolved solids (TDS) of water in the Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas. Predictability analysis was performed between the precipitation, temperature, streamflow rates at the site, releases from upstream reservoirs, and monthly TDS using cross‐correlation statistical tests. The chi‐square test results indicated that the average monthly temperature and precipitation did not show significant predictability on monthly TDS series. The performances of one‐ to three‐month‐ahead model forecasts for the testing period of 1984‐1994 showed that the TFN model that incorporated the streamflow rates at the site and Caballo Reservoir release improved monthly TDS forecasts slightly better than the ARIMA models. Except for one‐month‐ahead forecasts, the ANN models using the streamflow rates at the site as inputs resulted in no significant improvements over the TFN models at two‐month‐ahead and three‐month‐ahead forecasts. For three‐month‐ahead forecasts, the simple ARIMA showed similar performance compared to all other models. The results of this study suggested that simple deseasonalized ARIMA models could be used in one‐ to three‐month‐ahead TDS forecasting at the study site with a simple, explicit model structure and similar model performance as the TFN and ANN models for better water management in the Basin.     

Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (warp) Models for Predicting Atrazine Concentrations in Corn Belt Streams1

Stone, Wesley W. and Robert J. Gilliom, 2012. Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) Models for Predicting Atrazine Concentrations in Corn Belt Streams. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 970‐986. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00661.x Abstract: Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models, previously developed for atrazine at the national scale, are improved for application to the United States (U.S.) Corn Belt region by developing region‐specific models that include watershed characteristics that are influential in predicting atrazine concentration statistics within the Corn Belt. WARP models for the Corn Belt (WARP‐CB) were developed for annual maximum moving‐average (14‐, 21‐, 30‐, 60‐, and 90‐day durations) and annual 95th‐percentile atrazine concentrations in streams of the Corn Belt region. The WARP‐CB models accounted for 53 to 62% of the variability in the various concentration statistics among the model‐development sites. Model predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observed concentration statistic for over 90% of the model‐development sites. The WARP‐CB residuals and uncertainty are lower than those of the National WARP model for the same sites. Although atrazine‐use intensity is the most important explanatory variable in the National WARP models, it is not a significant variable in the WARP‐CB models. The WARP‐CB models provide improved predictions for Corn Belt streams draining watersheds with atrazine‐use intensities of 17 kg/km² of watershed area or greater.     

基于应力分析的机载电子设备可靠性加速增长试验技术研究

本文论述了基于应力分析的机载电子设备可靠性加速增长试验流程和方法,以某机载惯导产品为例说明了加速系数计算方法。这一方法对于其他机载电子产品的可靠性评估工作有一定的指导意义。     

中国与美国对外直接投资区位选择的比较研究

基于邓宁的国际生产折衷理论,对比了中美两国投资规模、空间分布和发展阶段,利用灰色关联分析法比较了影响两国投资区位的因子.结果表明,影响美国对外投资的主要因子是人均GNP、CH和CO2的排放量,影响中国的主要因子是直接投资净流入量、航空运输量和CPI;美国对外直接投资属于市场导向型,而中国尚处于转型期,为对外投资第三阶段.     

CFD分析在烟气脱硫中的实际运用与研究

为降低某公司烧结机干法脱硫装置烟道阻力,减少引风机出力,实现节能优化,运用计算流体力学软件,对引风机出口烟道内流场进行三维数值模拟,并根据分析结果进行烟道的优化改造。改造后,吸收塔入口负压由-200Pa提升至-560Pa,风机电流由328A降为301.4A,节能降耗显著。     

Selection and integration of environmental impacts in the Danish transport infrastructure assessment process

Transport projects have numerous consequences for the environment, society and economy, and thus an EU Directive has stated a number of impacts that need to be assessed prior to any major intervention. This paper is set in a Danish context where the EU requirements have been adopted in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) regulation along with national requirements. In recent years, however, the EIAs have been criticised for an inconsistent inclusion of impacts and unclear assessment process. A selection of EIAs is for this reason reviewed and compared to the EU Directive and corresponding works in Sweden and the UK to identify potential opportunities for improvements. From the literature study, an overview table with all potential relevant impacts for transport projects is set up to assist the EIA process. For the sake of simplicity and transparency, the impacts selected from this table should, however, be further reduced in number to ensure that only the most important impacts are included in the process. To further increase simplicity and transparency in the EIA process, a novel framework for assessing different types of impacts is proposed. In this framework, a comprehensive decision support tool involving stakeholders is in focus. The framework is supplemented with a procedure for generating objectives and presenting results in an appropriate way to the many stakeholders involved. The impacts overview table and the assessment techniques are applied to a case study to illustrate the process, and finally, conclusions and perspectives for future work within the field are set out.     

Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.