Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species’ ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.     

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.     

Effect of Cell-to-matrix Ratio in Polyvinyl Alcohol Immobilized Pure and Mixed Cultures on Atrazine Degradation

Atrazine biodegradation by immobilized pure and mixed cultures was examined. A pure atrazine-degrading culture, Agrobacterium radiobacter J14a (J14a), and a mixed culture (MC), isolated from an atrazine-contaminated crop field, were immobilized using phosphorylated-polyvinyl alcohol (PPVA). An existing cell immobilization procedure was modified to enhance PPVA matrix stability. The results showed that the matrices remained mechanically and chemically stable after shaking with glass beads over 15 days under various salt solutions and pH values. The immobilization process had a slight effect on cell viability. With the aid of scanning electron microscopy, a suitable microstructure of PPVA matrices for cell entrapment was observed. There were two porous layers of spherical gel matrices, the outside having an encapsulation property and the inside containing numerous pores for bacteria to occupy. J14a and MC were immobilized at three cell-to-matrix ratios of 3.5, 6.7, and 20 mg dry cells/mL matrix. The atrazine biodegradation tests were conducted in an aerobic batch system, which was inoculated with cells at 2,000 mg/L. The tests were also conducted using free (non-immobilized) J14a and MC for comparative purpose. The cell-to-matrix ratio of 3.5 mg/mL provided the highest atrazine removal efficiency of 40–50% in 120 h for both J14a and MC. The free cell systems, for both cultures, presented much lower atrazine removal efficiencies compared to the immobilized cell systems at the same level of inoculation.     

Urbanisation and flood vulnerability in the peri-urban interface of Mexico City

Chronic flooding in the Chalco valley, state of Mexico, Mexico, is the outcome of past and present socio‐environmental changes which have taken place in Mexico City's south‐eastern peri‐urban interface. This flooding is the result of a complex interaction between urbanisation in an ex‐lacustrine area, permanent ecological deterioration and ground subsidence, poor sanitation and inadequate policy responses. Far from solving the flooding problem, short‐term policy responses have created increasingly unsafe conditions for current residents. A socio‐historical analysis of disasters reveals the importance of taking into consideration particular social actors and institutions in hazard generation and flood vulnerability over time. This paper analyses three aspects of this flooding: first, the importance of approaching floods from a socio‐historical perspective; second, the relation between urbanisation, former policies and flood risk generation; and third, current policy responses to and the failure in the risk management of La Compañía Canal.     

Integrating Paleobiology,Archeology, and History to Inform Biological Conservation

The search for novel approaches to establishing ecological baselines (reference conditions) is constrained by the fact that most ecological studies span the past few decades, at most, and investigate ecosystems that have been substantially altered by human activities for decades, centuries, or more. Paleobiology, archeology, and history provide historical ecological context for biological conservation, remediation, and restoration. We argue that linking historical ecology explicitly with conservation can help unify related disciplines of conservation paleobiology, conservation archeobiology, and environmental history. Differences in the spatial and temporal resolution and extent (scale) of prehistoric, historic, and modern ecological data remain obstacles to integrating historical ecology and conservation biology, but the prolonged temporal extents of historical ecological data can help establish more complete baselines for restoration, document a historical range of ecological variability, and assist in determining desired future conditions. We used the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) fishery of the Chesapeake Bay (U.S.A.) to demonstrate the utility of historical ecological data for elucidating oyster conservation and the need for an approach to conservation that transcends disciplinary boundaries. Historical ecological studies from the Chesapeake have documented dramatic declines (as much as 99%) in oyster abundance since the early to mid‐1800s, changes in oyster size in response to different nutrient levels from the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries, and substantial reductions in oyster accretion rates (from 10 mm/year to effectively 0 mm/year) from the Late Holocene to modern times. Better integration of different historical ecological data sets and increased collaboration between paleobiologists, geologists, archeologists, environmental historians, and ecologists to create standardized research designs and methodologies will help unify prehistoric, historic, and modern time perspectives on biological conservation. Integración de Paleobiología, Arqueología e Historia para Informar a la Biología de la Conservación     

Global Effects of Local Human Population Density and Distance to Markets on the Condition of Coral Reef Fisheries

Coral reef fisheries support the livelihoods of millions of people but have been severely and negatively affected by anthropogenic activities. We conducted a systematic review of published data on the biomass of coral reef fishes to explore how the condition of reef fisheries is related to the density of local human populations, proximity of the reef to markets, and key environmental variables (including broad geomorphologic reef type, reef area, and net productivity). When only population density and environmental covariates were considered, high variability in fisheries conditions at low human population densities resulted in relatively weak explanatory models. The presence or absence of human settlements, habitat type, and distance to fish markets provided a much stronger explanatory model for the condition of reef fisheries. Fish biomass remained relatively low within 14 km of markets, then biomass increased exponentially as distance from reefs to markets increased. Our results suggest the need for an increased science and policy focus on markets as both a key driver of the condition of reef fisheries and a potential source of solutions. Efectos Globales de la Densidad de Población Humana Local y la Distancia a los Mercados sobre la Condición de Pesquerías en Arrecifes de Coral     

Poaching Risks in Community‐Based Natural Resource Management

Poaching can disrupt wildlife‐management efforts in community‐based natural resource management systems. Monitoring, estimating, and acquiring data on poaching is difficult. We used local‐stakeholder knowledge and poaching records to rank and map the risk of poaching incidents in 2 areas where natural resources are managed by community members in Caprivi, Namibia. We mapped local stakeholder perceptions of the risk of poaching, risk of wildlife damage to livelihoods, and wildlife distribution and compared these maps with spatially explicit records of poaching events. Recorded poaching events and stakeholder perceptions of where poaching occurred were not spatially correlated. However, the locations of documented poaching events were spatially correlated with areas that stakeholders perceived wildlife as a threat to their livelihoods. This result suggests poaching occurred in response to wildlife damage occurred. Local stakeholders thought that wildlife populations were at high risk of being poached and that poaching occurred where there was abundant wildlife. These findings suggest stakeholders were concerned about wildlife resources in their community and indicate a need for integrated and continued monitoring of poaching activities and further interventions at the wildlife‐agricultural interface. Involving stakeholders in the assessment of poaching risks promotes their participation in local conservation efforts, a central tenet of community‐based management. We considered stakeholders poaching informants, rather than suspects, and our technique was spatially explicit. Different strategies to reduce poaching are likely needed in different areas. For example, interventions that reduce human‐wildlife conflict may be required in residential areas, and increased and targeted patrolling may be required in more remote areas. Stakeholder‐generated maps of human‐wildlife interactions may be a valuable enforcement and intervention support tool. Riesgos de Cacería Furtiva en el Manejo de Recursos Naturales Basado en Comunidades     

Reduced effect of Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease at the disease front

Pathogen-driven declines in animal populations are increasingly regarded as a major conservation issue. The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) is threatened with extinction by devil facial tumor disease, a unique transmissible cancer. The disease is transmitted through direct transfer of tumor cells, which is possible because the genetic diversity of Tasmanian devils is low, particularly in the major histocompatibility complex genes of the immune system. The far northwest of Tasmania now holds the last remaining disease-free wild devil populations. The recent discovery of unique major histocompatibility complex genotypes in the northwestern region of Tasmania has raised the possibility that some animals may be resilient to the disease. We examined the differences in the epidemiology and population effects of devil facial tumor disease at 3 well-studied affected sites in eastern Tasmania and 1 in western Tasmania (West Pencil Pine). In contrast to the 3 eastern sites, there has been no rapid increase in disease prevalence or evidence of population decline at West Pencil Pine. Moreover, this is the only onsite at which the population age structure has remained unaltered 4 years after the first detection of disease. The most plausible explanations for the substantial differences in population effects and epidemiology of the disease between eastern and western sites are geographic differences in genotypes or phenotypes of devils and functional differences between tumor strains in the 2 regions. We suggest that conservation efforts focus on identifying whether either or both these explanations are correct and then, if resistance alleles exist, to attempt to spread the resistant alleles into affected populations. Such assisted selection has rarely been attempted for the management of wildlife diseases, but it may be widely applicable.     

Use of linkage mapping and centrality analysis across habitat gradients to conserve connectivity of gray wolf populations in western North America

Centrality metrics evaluate paths between all possible pairwise combinations of sites on a landscape to rank the contribution of each site to facilitating ecological flows across the network of sites. Computational advances now allow application of centrality metrics to landscapes represented as continuous gradients of habitat quality. This avoids the binary classification of landscapes into patch and matrix required by patch-based graph analyses of connectivity. It also avoids the focus on delineating paths between individual pairs of core areas characteristic of most corridor- or linkage-mapping methods of connectivity analysis. Conservation of regional habitat connectivity has the potential to facilitate recovery of the gray wolf (Canis lupus), a species currently recolonizing portions of its historic range in the western United States. We applied 3 contrasting linkage-mapping methods (shortest path, current flow, and minimum-cost-maximum-flow) to spatial data representing wolf habitat to analyze connectivity between wolf populations in central Idaho and Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming). We then applied 3 analogous betweenness centrality metrics to analyze connectivity of wolf habitat throughout the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada to determine where it might be possible to facilitate range expansion and interpopulation dispersal. We developed software to facilitate application of centrality metrics. Shortest-path betweenness centrality identified a minimal network of linkages analogous to those identified by least-cost-path corridor mapping. Current flow and minimum-cost-maximum-flow betweenness centrality identified diffuse networks that included alternative linkages, which will allow greater flexibility in planning. Minimum-cost-maximum-flow betweenness centrality, by integrating both land cost and habitat capacity, allows connectivity to be considered within planning processes that seek to maximize species protection at minimum cost. Centrality analysis is relevant to conservation and landscape genetics at a range of spatial extents, but it may be most broadly applicable within single- and multispecies planning efforts to conserve regional habitat connectivity.     

Combining geodiversity with climate and topography to account for threatened species richness

Understanding threatened species diversity is important for long‐term conservation planning. Geodiversity—the diversity of Earth surface materials, forms, and processes—may be a useful biodiversity surrogate for conservation and have conservation value itself. Geodiversity and species richness relationships have been demonstrated; establishing whether geodiversity relates to threatened species’ diversity and distribution pattern is a logical next step for conservation. We used 4 geodiversity variables (rock‐type and soil‐type richness, geomorphological diversity, and hydrological feature diversity) and 4 climatic and topographic variables to model threatened species diversity across 31 of Finland's national parks. We also analyzed rarity‐weighted richness (a measure of site complementarity) of threatened vascular plants, fungi, bryophytes, and all species combined. Our 1‐km² resolution data set included 271 threatened species from 16 major taxa. We modeled threatened species richness (raw and rarity weighted) with boosted regression trees. Climatic variables, especially the annual temperature sum above 5 °C, dominated our models, which is consistent with the critical role of temperature in this boreal environment. Geodiversity added significant explanatory power. High geodiversity values were consistently associated with high threatened species richness across taxa. The combined effect of geodiversity variables was even more pronounced in the rarity‐weighted richness analyses (except for fungi) than in those for species richness. Geodiversity measures correlated most strongly with species richness (raw and rarity weighted) of threatened vascular plants and bryophytes and were weakest for molluscs, lichens, and mammals. Although simple measures of topography improve biodiversity modeling, our results suggest that geodiversity data relating to geology, landforms, and hydrology are also worth including. This reinforces recent arguments that conserving nature's stage is an important principle in conservation.