典型云南高原湖泊叶绿素a与影响因子的定量关系及对比分析

湖泊富营养化的影响因子涉及水文、物化、生物等多方面,具有复合性和非线性特征,定量化其与影响因素间的相关关系有助于识别影响湖泊营养状态的关键因子,可以用较低的成本、较短的时间达到理想的控制效果.云南高原湖泊具有易发生富营养化的自然和气候特征,对其富营养化发生条件及影响因子的分析可为科学的控制决策提供参考.本文选取云南滇池、程海、抚仙湖和异龙湖4个高原湖泊,比较湖泊自然特征与流域社会经济条件的异同;构建包括绝对主成分多元线性回归分析(APCS-MLR)、结构方程模型(SEM)及人工神经网络模型(ANN)的综合分析方法,重点关注并确定浮游初级生产力的代表指标(叶绿素a,Chla)与相关影响因子间的定量相关关系.研究发现:14个湖泊中,对Chla浓度变化影响最大的均为理化因子,但在各湖中该影响的正、负性及不同理化因子的贡献权重有较大差异;2流域污染源构成的不同在一定程度上影响了入湖的氮、磷负荷,使4个湖泊表现出不同的营养盐限制性特征;3流域面积、湖泊形态及湖体水动力条件影响着营养盐在湖体中的迁移转换,造成4个湖泊富营养化的差异性特征;4对Chla与影响因子间因果关联的识别须结合深入的机理过程分析.     

Effects of Dram Shop,Responsible Beverage Service Training,and State Alcohol Control Laws on Underage Drinking Driver Fatal Crash Ratios

Objectives: In this study, we aimed to determine whether three minimum legal drinking age 21 (MLDA-21) laws—dram shop liability, responsible beverage service (RBS) training, and state control of alcohol sales—have had an impact on underage drinking and driving fatal crashes using annual state-level data, and compared states with strong laws to those with weak laws to examine their effect on beer consumption and fatal crash ratios.

Methods: Using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, we calculated the ratio of drinking to nondrinking drivers under age 21 involved in fatal crashes as our key outcome measure. We used structural equation modeling to evaluate the three MLDA-21 laws. We controlled for covariates known to impact fatal crashes including: 17 additional MLDA-21 laws; administrative license revocation; blood alcohol concentration limits of.08 and.10 for driving; seat belt laws; sobriety checkpoint frequency; unemployment rates; and vehicle miles traveled. Outcome variables, in addition to the fatal crash ratios of drinking to nondrinking drivers under age 21 included state per capita beer consumption.

Results: Dram shop liability laws were associated with a 2.4% total effect decrease (direct effects: β =.019, p =.018). Similarly, RBS training laws were associated with a 3.6% total effect decrease (direct effect: β =.048, p =.001) in the ratio of drinking to nondrinking drivers under age 21 involved in fatal crashes. There was a significant relationship between dram shop liability law strength and per capita beer consumption, F (4, 1528) = 24.32, p <.001, partial η² =.016, showing states with strong dram shop liability laws (Mean (M) = 1.276) averaging significantly lower per capita beer consumption than states with weak laws (M = 1.340).

Conclusions: Dram shop liability laws and RBS laws were both associated with significantly reduced per capita beer consumption and fatal crash ratios. In practical terms, this means that dram shop liability laws are currently associated with saving an estimated 64 lives in the 45 jurisdictions that currently have the law. If the remaining 6 states adopted the dram shop law, an additional 9 lives could potentially be saved annually. Similarly, RBS training laws are associated with saving an estimated 83 lives in the 37 jurisdictions that currently have the laws. If the remaining 14 states adopted these RBS training laws, we estimate that an additional 28 lives could potentially be saved.     

南京北郊大气VOCs变化特征及来源解析

利用2011-03-01~2012-02-29南京北郊大气VOCs观测资料,对大气VOCs浓度变化特征和特征物比值差异展开研究,并应用PCA/APCS受体模型对不同季节VOCs来源进行了解析.结果表明,南京大气总VOCs体积混合比为43.52×10-9,其中烷烃占45.1%、烯烃占25.3%、炔烃占7.3%和芳香烃占22.3%.总VOCs体积混合比呈现夏季高,冬季低的季节变化.VOCs组分中烷烃在冬季最高,烯烃夏季最高,芳香烃春季最高,炔烃冬季最高.特征物比值(VOCs/乙炔)和T/B比值反映出观测点受周边工业区影响较大.VOCs源解析表明,主要来源来自工厂生产、机动车排放、燃料燃烧、生产活动挥发、溶剂使用和自然源.虽然有季节变化,但与工业生产活动相关的来源占大气VOCs 45%~63%,其次为机动车来源占34%~50%.     

Dynamics of abundance and population structure of sea otters, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Enhydra lutris</Emphasis> L., on the Commander Archipelago and activity of their migrations between Islands

Fluctuations in the abundance of insular groups of sea otters on the Commander Archipelago are analyzed with regard to changes in meteorological conditions. The main factors responsible for the abrupt decline of the Bering Sea group between 2002 and 2004 are discussed. A statistically significant correlation has been revealed between fluctuations of sea otter abundance and the cycles of solar activity in the period since 1992. Changes in the age and sex structure of the insular groups of sea otters are evaluated.     

打造网络时代的重庆旅游营销系统

近年来,互联网以一种不可想象的速度向前发展.网络技术的发展和应用使人们在信息共享和交流方面摆脱了时空的局限.旅游业作为21世纪的高成长性行业,它的发展时刻受到信息革命的冲击.针对旅游产品的综合性、无形性、不可转移性和不可贮存性等特点,论述了网络时代旅游业运用网络营销的必然性以及旅游网络营销的优势,并探讨了重庆旅游网络营销的发展策略.     

MaryPODS revisited: updated crash analysis and implications for screening program implementation

PROBLEM: Due to the relative scarcity of crashes, there has consistently been a problem with analyses that use crashes as a criterion measure in their analyses. METHOD: Previous analyses of the relationships between functional capacity measures and at-fault crash involvement for older drivers as reported in the NHTSA Model Driver Screening and Evaluation Program Final Technical Report have been updated to include one additional year of driving experience. Eighteen new at-fault crashes involving drivers who previously had no crash involvement were recorded for the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration (MVA) test sample during this interval. The method of odds ratio (OR) calculation was used to examine the relationships between functional status predictors and the most salient among the safety outcome measures identified in the Maryland research. Peak valid OR values for the prior and current analyses were contrasted, and the stability of candidate pass-fail cut-points for each predictor relative to values identified in the Final Technical Report was examined. RESULTS: Results indicate that the predictive value of functional tests appears to decrease over time, particularly for the perceptual-cognitive measures. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The impact of these findings on programs and policies is to underscore a need for periodic reevaluation, spaced at the shortest practical intervals but not more than 2 years apart, in order for functional capacity screening to be applied effectively by licensing authorities, health care professionals, and others to reduce personal risk and enhance public safety.     

STATISTICAL AND GEOSTATISTICAL MODELLING OF PRELIMINARILY ADJUSTED DEFOLIATION ON AN EUROPEAN SCALE

Since 1987 tree crown condition is surveyed annually in large parts of Europe mainly in terms of defoliation. The plot-wise means of defoliation from 1994 to 2000 were evaluated by General Linear Models (GLM) in order to describe country-specific levels of defoliation and age-trends. Additional runs with estimates for influences of insects and fungi were performed. The amount of variance of defoliation explained by country, age and its interaction was between 35% and 59% for the main tree species, except for Quercus ilex. Additionally, up to 10% could be explained by the inclusion of estimates for infestations by insects and fungi. Residuals of the GLMs were taken as a measure of forest condition not biased by country or age effects and interpreted as preliminarily adjusted defoliation (PAD). PAD values were analysed using geostatistical methods. The modelled spatial autocorrelations were used for kriging. The resulting maps give an overview on regions with elevated defoliation, which may pinpoint regional causes of defoliation. The elimination of methodologically caused variance is a precondition of any cause–effect oriented analyses. The combination of explorative modelling and geostatistics will promote the choice of further promising predictors.     

高精度热电离质谱定年及其对第四纪环境研究的意义

用高精度、高灵敏度不平衡铀系热电离质谱 (TIMS)法测定第四纪地质年龄 ,并已在古气候、古环境、古海洋、考古学以及近代活动火山作用的研究中取得了一系列重要成果。本文介绍了我们用MAT -2 62质谱仪对石笋、珊瑚进行测试并取得比较满意结果的情况。     

The Influence of Age on Cadmium Concentrations in Seabirds

The effects of age on cadmium concentrations was investigated in Cory's shearwater, Calonectris diomedea, Lesser black-backed gull, Larus fuscus, and great skuas, Catharacta skua. There was no evidence for the continued accumulation of cadmium with increasing adult age. Adult shearwaters did have higher concentrations of cadmium compared to young fledglings, but there was no significant difference between cadmium concentrations in adult and sub-adult gulls. In addition, the sample of great skuas were of known age (3–22 yrs old) and showed no evidence of increasing cadmium concentrations with adult age in liver or kidney. However, it is possible that age accumulation of cadmium in great skuas was masked by individual dietary preferences overriding the effects of increasing age. It is often assumed that cadmium concentrations continue to accumulate with increasing adult age, but seabirds may have evolved some as yet unknown mechanism for excretion or more rapid turnover of cadmium than previously thought. The implications of this for the use of seabirds as biomonitors is discussed.