Space-time modeling for the Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey

The Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey (MTHS) is a postseason mail survey conducted by the Missouri Department of Conservation. The 1996 MTHS provides information concerning the number of turkeys harvested by hunters on each day and the total number of trips made to the counties by these hunters on each day of the hunting season. The success rates are then found from this information. Small sample sizes produce large standard errors for the estimates at the county level. We use a Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear model to estimate daily hunting success rates at the county level. The model includes an autoregressive process for the days of the hunting season and spatially correlated random geographic effects. The computations are performed using Gibbs sampling and adaptive rejection sampling techniques. Results show that there are significant spatial corelations between counties and correlations between days of the hunting season. The estimates are close to the frequency estimates at the state level and much more stable at the county level.     

植物区系学中特有现象的研究进展(Ⅰ)--概念、类型、起源及其研究意义

植物区系学中的特有现象是其研究的重点内容，对特有现象的概念、类型、起源及其研究意义作了详细的论述；其次，总结了中国植物区系的基本情况、生活型、分布区学、水平分布、垂直分布与起源等研究成果；第三，介绍了研究特有现象的形态-地理学方法、细胞地理学方法和等位酶分析方法；第四，指出了中国植物区系中特有现象研究所面临的困境，认为应该集中力量重点研究滇黔桂、横断山脉以及华中等3个地区的植物区系基本特征、组成、起源、演化与扩散等内容．     

南岳衡山国内旅游客源市场调查分析

对南岳衡山旅游客源市场进行调查分析，可为其旅游产业定位、旅游开发建设的阶段定位、旅游基础设施资源定位、旅游产品开发定位、旅游从业人员定位提供依据，从而推动整个衡山旅游业的发展，并促进其经济发展．本文通过对南岳衡山客源市场的调查分析，提出了对其市场开发定位及开拓策略的建议．     

Designing an efficient adaptive cluster sample

The choice of neighborhood definition and critical value in adaptive cluster sampling is critical for designing an efficient survey. In designing an efficient adaptive cluster sample one should aim for a small difference between the initial and final sample size, and a small difference between the within-network and population variances. However, the two aims can be at odds with each other because small differences between initial and final sample size usually means small within-network variance. One way to help in designing an efficient survey is to think in terms of small network sizes since the network size is a function of both critical value and neighborhood definition. One should aim for networks that are small enough to ensure the final sample size is not excessively large compared with the initial sample size but large enough to ensure the within-network variance is a reasonable fraction of the population variance. In this study surveys that had networks that were two to four units in size were the most efficient.     

Effects of Earthworm Invasion on Plant Species Richness in Northern Hardwood Forests

Abstract:  The invasion of non-native earthworms ( Lumbricus spp.) into a small number of intensively studied stands of northern hardwood forest has been linked to declines in plant diversity and the local extirpation of one threatened species. It is unknown, however, whether these changes have occurred across larger regions of hardwood forests, which plant species are most vulnerable, or with which earthworm species such changes are associated most closely. To address these issues we conducted a regional survey in the Chippewa and Chequamegon national forests in Minnesota and Wisconsin (U.S.A.), respectively. We sampled earthworms, soils, and vegetation, examined deer browse in 20 mature, sugar-maple-dominated forest stands in each national forest, and analyzed the relationship between invasive earthworms and vascular plant species richness and composition. Invasion by Lumbricus was a strong indicator of reduced plant richness in both national forests. The mass of Lumbricus juveniles was significantly and negatively related to plant-species richness in both forests. In addition, Lumbricus was a significant factor affecting plant richness in a full model that included multiple variables. In the Chequamegon National Forest earthworm mass was associated with higher sedge cover and lower cover of sugar maple seedlings and several forb species. The trends were similar but not as pronounced in Chippewa, perhaps due to lower deer densities and different earthworm species composition. Our results provide regional evidence that invasion by Lumbricus species may be an important mechanism in reduced plant-species richness and changes in plant communities in mature forests dominated by sugar maples.     

The National Resources Inventory: a long-term multi-resource monitoring programme

Interest in natural resources and the environment has led to the development of new federal monitoring efforts, the expansion of existing federal inventory programmes, and discussions of inter-agency collaboration for natural resource assessment data collection. As federal programmes evolve, knowledge gained from existing long-term survey programmes can provide valuable contributions to statistical and operational aspects of survey efforts. This paper describes the National Resources Inventory (NRI), which has been conducted by the US Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Conservation Service in cooperation with the Iowa State University Statistical Laboratory for several decades. The current NRI is a longitudinal survey of soil, water, and related environmental resources designed to assess conditions and trends every five years on non-federal US lands. An historical overview is provided highlighting the development of the survey programme. Sample design, data collection, and estimation procedures used in the 1992 NRI are described, and statistical issues related to long-term monitoring are discussed.     

中国森林资源的过去、现在与未来发展趋势

中国是少林国家。在20世纪70年代中期进行“四五”清查以前,中国只掌握一些局部性的调查数据。在1978—1981年间又进行了以省为总体的宏观抽样调查,即“五五”清查。两次清查结果很接近,但都表明中国森林太少,远低于世界平均水平和有代表性的国家。 古代中国的林区远比现在为大。森林面积则比现在大若干倍。中国缺林少材的现状是几千年来农业社会发展进程中火烧、滥伐、滥垦、滥牧的结果。其中,置森林于万劫不复的是滥垦和滥牧。这一过程至今尚未停止。 根据中国的自然条件和宜林地资源的状况,有条件大幅度扩大森林面积和增加森林蓄积量。经过努力,森林面积可达到2.53×10⁸ha,蓄积量可达到210×10⁸m³以上。都是现在的2倍多。但对保护生态环境和向国民经济提供木材和林产品来说,仍然不能完全满足需要。     

江西陆相红盆地1∶5万区调中的经济地质调查

为了拓展区调工作的服务领域,"九·五"期间,我们在江西白垩纪—新近纪陆相红盆地1∶5万区调工作中,对红盆区经济地质的调查作了一些有益的探索,取得了较显著的经济和社会效益。本文主要从矿产地质、农业地质、旅游地质和灾害地质四个方面,对陆相红盆地经济地质调查工作方法进行探讨。     

Seat belt use among car drivers in Iranian safe communities: An observational study

Objective: The number of road traffic injuries and fatalities in Iran is high. The aim of the present study was to investigate the rate of drivers' seat belt use and a number of related factors in Kashmar, Bardaskan, and Khalilabad (Iranian Safe Communities).Methods: In 2014, driver observations were made at 48 road sites on intercity roads, main streets, side streets, and rural roads in these 3 cities.Results: A total of 10,255 vehicles were observed, with the overall rate of seat belt use being 51.8%. The rates in Kashmar, Bardaskan, and Khalilabad were 51.4, 56.3, and 47.7%, respectively. In Kashmar, the odds of seat belt use were higher among drivers who were female, older, and taxi drivers. Higher use was also found during the afternoon, and lower use was observed on rural roads. In Khalilabad the odds of seat belt use were higher among females, older drivers, taxis, and private car drivers. Seat belt use was also higher on weekends and during the morning but was significantly lower on rural roads. Similarly, in Bardaskan the odds of using a seat belt were higher among females, older drivers, taxis, and private car drivers. Seat belt use was also higher during the afternoon but was significantly lower on rural roads, in comparison to main streets and intercity roads.Conclusions: The rate of seat belt use in these 3 cities was found to be low, despite these cities being designated as International Safe Communities. Therefore, seat belt promotion programs, tougher regulations, stronger enforcement, public awareness campaigns, and more research are needed to promote seat belt use in these Iranian cities.     

我国安全生产科学技术研究与应用最新进展

从安全生产科研队伍和中介机构、人才培养、实验室建设、科技成果产出、科研成果转化及其产业化等方面全面总结了近年来我国安全科技方面取得的成绩;同时从安全科技体制机制、基础条件、基础理论研究、投入等方面探讨和分析了存在的主要问题及严重不足;提出了安全生产科学技术在安全基础理论、关键技术、推广应用、资源整合、科研机制等方面的对策建议。研究表明,近年来我国安全生产科技工作成绩突出,问题也很多,应该用创新和改革的思路及勇气进一步推动安全生产科技的快速发展。