“良心”与地震预报

地震科学水平和地震预报的社会实践，形成研究人员不同的“良心”心理活动。积极的“良心”心理活动，有促进地震预报研究发展，相对提高预报成功率的作用；消极的心理活动，则干扰地震预报决策，或涣散军心，增加预报失误。为此，在震情严峻的情况下，应减轻预报人员的心理负担，在基层地震部门，更要疏导地震工作者的消极心理，以提高地震预报的质量     

Timing of hurricane emergency actions

Emergency actions to prepare for hurricanes often require more time than is available from official public warnings. This means that the preparedness official must decide not onlywhat to do butwhen to do it. The action decision system, described here, developed for use in the State of Florida, reformats the hurricane track forecast, a 72-h projection, prepared at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, to specify the probability of a strike at each of 12 vulnerable coastal communities, and then normalizes the value in terms of a composite of probabilities computed for historic hurricanes that struck the respective communities. The normalization, a ratio of the two probability values, current and historic, expressed as a percentage is defined as the level of risk. When this level reaches or exceeds 100% the risk level is defined as critical and the system recommends that emergency actions to prepare begin immediately.The system is founded upon individual hurricane climatologies and decision procedures that are tailored for use at each community. The action recommendations generated by the risk analyses with a 93% level of confidence relieve the preparedness official of the need to make meteorological decisions in timing evacuations and other critical measures, even when these must begin before official hurricane warnings are received.The work that provided the basis for this publication was supported by funding under a Cooperative Agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The substance and findings of the work are dedicated to the public. The authors are solely responsible for the accuracy of the statements and interpretations contained in the publication. Such interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views of the government.     

Community and individual reaction to environmental hazards: Developing a measurement technology

This study was an attempt to develop an efficient method of monitoring and assessing how members of a community react to a toxic hazard in their community. The intent was to develop a short instrument which could be applied in multiple settings, or in the same setting several times. The methodology was a short questionnaire that addressed six issues: sources of information about the hazard, beliefs about justice and responsibility, beliefs about why the hazard is a problem, extent of active concern, involvement in community affairs, and satisfaction with life. A mailed questionnaire was developed and tested in a community near an EPA Superfund site in the United States. Results of the effort are discussed relative to the particular community studied, and relative to furthering the assessment technology begun in this research.     

FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD RESPONSES FOR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH1

ABSTRACT The flooding conditions in the basin of the Red River of the North are reviewed in terms of the accuracy of the flood forecasts and the response of both the floodplain occupants and government agencies to these forecasts. The flood prediction methods in Canada and the United States are compared. The accuracy of these prediction measures for the major floods in recent history is reviewed. The differences between the way in which the American and Canadian authorities approach the flood emergencies are outlined. The accuracy of the forecasts are plotted against a number of parameters which reflect the efficiency of the flood fighting measures initiated by those flood forecasts. The significant features of these plots are discussed.     

Community Exchange and Training in the Suid Bokkeveld: A UNCCD Pilot Project to Enhance Livelihoods and Natural Resource Management

Community knowledge exchanges have played a key role in developmental processes in the Suid Bokkeveld community of South Africa. Two exchange visits were undertaken with the support of the Department of Agriculture and an NGO, the Environmental Monitoring Group, which have led to local economic development and enhanced capacity to manage natural resources in a sustainable manner. These pilot projects were undertaken within the framework of the Community Exchange and Training Programme of the Global Mechanism of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The methodology applied included facilitation to develop a community-based vision for development, in terms of which the community exchange process was designed. A Facilitation Team of service providers conducted preparatory workshops, and identified potential partner communities. Two exchange visits were carried out, one focused on Rooibos production and marketing, and the other on community-based eco-tourism. Following report-back and planning workshops, emerging community-driven initiatives were supported through their formative stages. The initiatives have not only resulted in enhanced livelihoods, but the methodology has also been applied widely in a number of different contexts.     

Connecting Community Action and Science to Combat Desertification: Evaluation of a Process

Combating desertification requires the involvement of many people ranging from communities who experience the effects on a daily basis and scientists attempting to understand the biophysical and socio-economic causes and consequences of desertification, to developers and policy makers on all levels. In many instances, however, the understanding, approaches and actions of these different groups contradict rather than support one another. Over the period 2000 to 2002, a conference process undertaken in southern Africa brought together communities, scientists, and development workers to test the concept that they could connect and work together to combat desertification, given an appropriate framework. The conference was a success, and communities, scientists and developers did exchange experience, knowledge and information. Many lessons were learned, although some pitfalls were experienced. Time, funding, enhanced communication, and good will are the primary ingredients for ensuring that different sectors complement one another in their efforts to combat desertification.     

从安全角度设计车险条款的探讨

为了使驾驶者安全驾驶,达到减少交通事故和降低保险公司理赔支出的目的,笔者的研究课题是从安全角度出发,通过条款细分的方法讨论了安全驾驶与保费厘定之间的关系,确立了“以人为本”、“从车原则”的车险条款厘定细分原则。通过分析人的性别、年龄、驾龄、驾驶记录因素、车的安全性能和使用方式等因素对安全驾驶的影响,可以得出以下结论:适当减少安全驾车者的投保费用,增加风险大的驾驶者和投保车辆的投保费用,这样可以做到以防为主,减少交通事故发生,发挥保险对交通危险的调控作用,也有利于整治保险行业的违规行为,实现车险市场的公开、公平、公正的竞争态势。     

库水作用下公路土质岸坡稳定性影响因素综合评判

以三峡库区公路土质岸坡为研究对象,通过对库水作用的影响效应分析,建立了岸坡稳定性评价的参数指标评价体系以及相应的分级标准.在此基础上,应用影响因素综合评判方法,对实例岸坡进行了稳定性分级评价,评价结果与实际情况基本相符.     

Living with Pollution in Egypt

Environmental issues are increasingly discussed in Egypt, and there is some progress in dealing with pollution. This paper examines the environmental understandings of Egyptians living in four localities. People are preoccupied with such pollution problems as dirty streets, dirty air and water, and noise, for they aspire to live in a clean, healthy environment. To achieve this, they pressure the government, and take certain individual and collective actions themselves, although direct political action is rare.     

Conservation of Biodiversity: How Are We Doing?

A question rarely raised in discussions on biodiversity conservation, but surely the biggest question of all, is “How much time do we have left before the mass extinction underway surpasses our best efforts to contain it?” This prompts a further prime question because—and unlike all other problems, whether environmental or otherwise—the biotic crisis threatens to leave a severely impoverished planet for millions of years ahead; “Why do we not undertake the necessary actions to get on top of the problem before it gets on top of us?”