水土流失风险扰动下区域人地系统适应性研究——以榆林市为例

适应性概念为可持续性科学领域提供了新的研究思维。论文在总结、梳理适应性内涵,整合相关适应性理论与方法的基础上,提出了基于风险扰动的适应性分析框架,采用风险-适应能力指数评估区域人地系统适应性,将系统适应性分解为风险干扰和适应能力（包括生态、经济、社会能力3个参数）两个维度,从研究区水土流失风险出发,构建系统适应性评价指标体系。通过美国通用土壤流失方程（USLE）与适应性函数模型,分析榆林市水土流失风险以及人地系统适应能力时空演化特征,在系统适应性水平评估基础上,揭示榆林市不同时期人地系统适应性演化的驱动因素。研究结果表明：1）2000—2011年榆林市水土流失风险显著下降,但时空演化明显,到2011年高流失区转移分布于西南部、长城沿线等县域;2）12 a间榆林市系统适应性水平整体呈增高趋势,但空间上出现两极分化,呈现“西北高、东南低”的格局,其中北部县区（根据榆林市当地分区,北部县区包括府谷、神木、榆阳、横山、靖边、定边6县区;南部县域包括佳县、米脂、吴堡、子洲、绥德、清涧6县。）在生态、经济和社会子系统能力上明显高于南部,但南部县域适应性水平提升较北部更为明显;3）人地系统适应性演化驱动力由社会经济发展转化为生态环境修复、经济能力增强和社会保障提升的共同作用。     

自适应滑模控制器的EPS侧风反向控制研究

为了研究在侧风影响下汽车正向助力转向偏移过大而威胁驾驶员行车安全的问题,提出一种将反向助力和自适应滑模控制器相结合的控制方法。该方法通过驾驶员转矩和汽车车速的配比设计反向助力特性曲线,并利用自适应滑模电机控制器控制电机输出助力转矩,使汽车在转向过程中,增加了驾驶员转向的阻尼感,也同时提高了驾驶员对转向电机的实时操纵性。将其应用到汽车EPS系统中,仿真结果表明,在不同的车速、风速下,采用反向控制策略不仅减小了方向盘角度、齿条位移,还减小了汽车横摆角速度,可以显著地改善汽车行驶的稳定性和安全性。     

营运驾驶员驾驶事故影响因素仿真研究

解决营运驾驶员驾驶事故频发的不安全行为问题,基于复杂适应系统（CAS）理论和多主体建模与仿真（ABMS）方法,构建营运驾驶员驾驶事故模型。通过调节车辆状况、管理者管理监督水平、营运驾驶员情绪状态、安全教育水平、驾驶经验和环境综合条件等因素,运用NetLogo仿真平台分析安全管理水平、营运驾驶员安全责任意识、心理负荷水平对驾驶事故的影响。研究表明:营运驾驶员驾驶事故的发生系统是一种典型的CAS,营运驾驶员驾驶事故是三大主体属性和行为环境交互的结果,且交互作用程度不同。因此,运输企业要考虑多种因素,采取相应的措施来降低营运驾驶员驾驶事故的发生。     

基于自适应调整蚁群-RBF神经网络模型的中长期径流预测

径流预测历来是水利部门的一项重要工作,针对水库和河流中长期径流预测精度不高,提出了自适应调节人工蚁群算法(ARACS),对RBF神经网络参数进行优化,建立了自适应调节人工蚁群-RBF神经网络组合算法(ARACS-RBF)预测模型,综合考虑影响径流预变化因素,对安康水库进行中长期径流预测。对预测效果进行检验,结果证实该模型可真实地反映河川径流变化的总体趋势, 并为判断时间序列数据的非线性提供了一种新方法。与RBF神经网络模型、人工蚁群-RBF神经网络模型预测结果进行对比,结果表明,应用ARACS-RBF模型对中长期径流量进行预测,预测精度更高、效果更好。该方法克服了RBF神经网络和人工蚁群算法易陷于局部极值、搜索质量差和精度不高的缺点,改善了RBF神经网络的泛化能力,收敛速度快,输出稳定性好,提高了径流预测的精度,置信度为98%时的预测相对误差小于6.5%。可有效用于水库和河川中长期径流预测。     

LANDCARE AND COMMUNITY-LED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN VICTORIA,AUSTRALIA1

ABSTRACT: Australia's ‘Landcare’ program is a community-based participatory program established by government to tackle the problem of land degradation. Landcare involves thousands of Australians working together in locally based groups, tackling problems of common concern. Government and community are now looking to ‘scale up’ the Landcare idea to a regional level. State and territory governments have moved to create regional (often watershed-based) frameworks for land management planning and resource conservation, in accordance with the concept of integrated watershed management. Growing out of the success of community involvement in Landcare, many of these approaches involve the community. However scaling up of the Landcare idea introduces problems of both time and space. There have been a number of problems experienced in the implementation of Landcare and integrated watershed management. These problems include the equitable delineation of membership on decision-making bodies; the raising of sufficient funds for program implementation; and the coordination of a diversity of governmental layers, planning processes and management programs. This paper reviews how the State of Victoria has responded to these challenges and suggests what challenges remain.     

Evolution and Application of Urban Watershed Management Planning

The development of Watershed Management Plans (WMPs) in urban areas aids municipalities in allocating resources, engaging the public and stakeholders, addressing water quality regulations, and mitigating issues related to stormwater runoff and flooding. In this study, 124 urban WMPs across the United States were reviewed to characterize historic approaches and identify emerging trends in watershed planning. Planning methods and tools were qualitatively evaluated, followed by statistical analyses of a subset of 63 WMPs to identify relationships between planning factors. Plans developed by a municipality or consultant were associated with more occurrences of hydrologic modeling and site‐specific recommendations, and fewer occurrences of characterizing social watershed factors, than plans authored by agencies, organizations, or universities. WMPs in the past decade exhibited greater frequency in the use of pollutant load models and spatially explicit hydrologic and hydraulic models. Project prioritization was found to increasingly focus on feasibility to implement proposed strategies. More recent plans additionally exhibited greater consideration for water quality, ecological health, and public participation. Innovation in planning methods and consideration of future watershed conditions are primary areas that were found to be deficient in the study WMPs, although analysis methods and tools continue to improve in the wake of advancing technology and data availability.     

Achieving sustainable development goals through participatory forest management: Examples from South-Eastern Bangladesh

Forests managed through peoples' participation can help to achieve a number of sustainable development goals (SDGs). This paper, drawing data from four participatory forest management (PFM) projects in south-eastern Bangladesh, explored: (a) the factors that influenced the outcomes of PFM; and (b) contribution of PFM towards achieving selected SDGs. The research used observation, semi-structured household interviews, group discussions, vegetation survey and Ostromʼs design principles for data collection, Divergent forest conditions and factors in four PFM sites have had differential contribution to SDGs. Heterogeneity of user groups, insufficient coordination, absence of motivation, and land tenure conflicts had affected the attainment of SDGs. The PFM helped to achieve 9–11 SDGs comprising poverty reduction (Goal 1), improving food security (Goal 2), maintaining health and well-being (Goal 3), enhancing childrensʼ education (Goal 4), fair access to jobs and committees (Goals 5 and 10), sources of clean drinking water (Goal 6), affordable energy for cooking (Goal 7), increased household economy (Goal 8), climate change through carbon sequestration (Goal 13), forest conservation (Goal 15), and partnerships with relevant institutions (Goal 16). In order to achieve SDGs, PFM could be viewed as an integral part of government development strategies, which needs sectoral coordination and integration of relevant policies.     

Sustainable development—Food security—Agroecology

Basic scenarios of sustainable development for the world community and approaches to the problem of ensuring food security are discussed. The conservation of agricultural resources is the key element of food security. The structure and main objectives of agroecology are characterized in brief.     

江苏省沿江城市饮用水系统适应能力评估

在对饮用水系统适应能力界定的基础上,基于水源地、供水、用水、排污处理和技术5个子系统的适应性要素构建沿江城市饮用水系统适应能力评价指标体系和评价模型,采用分指数与综合指数法评估系统的适应能力水平、存在问题,并据此对江苏省沿江地区城市饮用水系统适应能力分异特征、类型及影响因素进行深入探讨。结果表明,南部环太湖地区城市饮用水系统适应能力高于中部滨江地区,北部地区适应能力最低;从各子系统适应能力得分情况来看,需加大对沿江地区水源地的保护力度,合理规划港口、码头等的布设;加快北部地区供排基础设施的建设,提高风险应急防范能力;南部环湖地区重点开展节水型企业与生态工业园区创建。