社会-生态系统概念性框架研究综述

人与自然的矛盾已成为全球性问题,可持续发展理论把人类对于生存与环境的认识推向了一个新的境界。近年来,以社会-生态系统作为研究对象,成为了可持续发展和全球变化研究的一个新视角。在社会-生态系统的概念性框架下,本文对社会-生态系统的动态运行机制和属性进行了详细的综述。社会-生态系统是复杂适应性系统,受自身和外界干扰的影响,具有不可预期性、自组织、非线性、多样性、多稳态等特点。适应性循环是一个启发性模型,有助于理解复杂系统的动态运行机制。恢复力、适应力和转化力是社会-生态系统的三个主要属性。并对社会-生态系统理论研究中面临的问题进行了展望,提出了在以后研究中可以适用的研究方法。     

Monitoring in adaptive co-management: Toward a learning based approach

The recognition of complexity and uncertainty in natural resource management has lead to the development of a wealth of conceptual frameworks aimed at integrated assessment and complex systems monitoring. Relatively less attention has however been given to methodological approaches that might facilitate learning as part of the monitoring process. This paper reviews the monitoring literature relevant to adaptive co-management, with a focus on the synergies between existing monitoring frameworks, collaborative monitoring approaches and social learning. The paper discusses the role of monitoring in environmental management in general, and the challenges posed by scale and complexity when monitoring in adaptive co-management. Existing conceptual frameworks for monitoring relevant to adaptive co-management are reviewed, as are lessons from experiences with collaborative monitoring. The paper concludes by offering a methodological approach to monitoring that actively seeks to engender reflexive learning as a means to deal with uncertainty in natural resource management.     

Parsing participation: models of engagement for outcomes monitoring in urban stewardship

Few urban environmental stewardship, or civic ecology, practices monitor their impacts on local communities and ecosystems. This lack of monitoring prevents lay stewards from adapting their practices based on outcomes. For those that do collect data on their practices, we see different forms of practitioner engagement in outcomes monitoring. We categorise these different forms of engagement according to five published models of public participation in scientific research, revealing different strategies for collecting and analysing data towards adaptive co-management in urban ecosystems. We propose two broad strategies for expanding outcomes monitoring in these contexts: creating openly accessible tools and protocols for do-it-yourself inquiry and supporting more resource-intensive partnerships between practitioners and scientists for more complex forms of outcomes monitoring.     

A case study of the opportunities and trade-offs associated with deproclamation of a protected area following a land claim in South Africa

Reconciling conservation and social justice imperatives is a major challenge facing many postcolonial states worldwide. Where historically disenfranchised communities have laid legal claim to protected areas, the typical resolution has been collaborative management agreements between the state and claimant communities. The real outcomes of such strategies for people and ecosystems have been seriously questioned, although alternative approaches are seldom explored. Here, we reflect on one such alternative that was pursued in a case in South Africa, where the land was handed back to the community and a replacement protected area created. Our objective was to explore the opportunities and trade-offs associated with this approach for communities and conservation agencies alike, and to compare these to typical collaborative management outcomes. Methods included key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household surveys. We find that, surprisingly, this approach created more benefits for the conservation agency than for claimant communities. Indeed, the community experiences bore a striking resemblance to those experienced in collaborative management settings: intra-community conflict, confusion over leadership and serious questions about the boundaries of the “community”. Processes aimed at redressing past injustice in disputes over conservation land, regardless of the approach adopted, must bring with them a strong commitment to building institutional and leadership capacities within communities, and pay serious attention to the ways in which equity and social justice can be fostered after the settlement of a land claim. Settlement agreements are frequently treated as the final step towards social justice, but are in fact just the beginning.     

Complementing institutional with localised strategies for climate change adaptation: a South-North comparison

Climate change and disasters pose a serious risk to sustainable development. In the South, local coping strategies are an important element of adaptation to climate and disaster risk. Such strategies have emerged because of the limited assistance provided by urban actors and associated social security and governance systems. In the North, in contrast, local coping strategies are comparatively poorly developed. However, the extent of the changing climatic conditions is also reducing the capacity of Northern institutions to deal with climatic extremes and variability, which emphasises the need for more local-level engagement in the North. This paper analyses the differences in local and institutional responses to climate change and disasters in a Southern and a Northern city (San Salvador, El Salvador, and Manchester, United Kingdom, respectively), and highlights how the lessons learned might be translated into an improved distributed governance system; that is, an 'integrated engagement model', where local and institutionalised responses support rather than hinder each other, as is currently the case.     

一种用于电力通信的自适应Adhoc协议

针对电网通信的智能化监测应用需要,提出了一种用于电力通信的Adhoc自适应预约按需传输多址接入协议,该协议在接入阶段可以根据业务量动态调整接入策略;在传输阶段可以无冲突的发送分组.针对该协议的吞吐量和平均时延性能进行了仿真分析.分析结果表明：协议能提高信道利用率、降低接入时延,可用于现代电力通信网络,以上研究结果对Adhoe在电力通信的工程中应用有较好参考意义.     

重金属对蚕豆(vicia faba)根尖的核酸含量及核酸酶活性影响的研究

Pb²⁺、Cd²⁺、Zn²⁺在低浓度作用下,随处理浓度的升高,刺激蚕豆(Vicia faba)DNA含量(处理浓度分别低于10.0、0.50、50.0ppm)和RNA含量(处理浓度分别低于10.0、50.0、50.0ppm),DNase活性(处理浓度均低于10.0ppm)和RNase活性(处理浓度分别低于20.0、10.0、50.0ppm)相应地升高;当处理浓度超过相应浓度时,DNA和RNA含量以及DNase与RNase活性随浓度升高而降低。Hg²⁺在小于0.05ppm时使RNase活性升高,高于该浓度使其降低,其它各指标无上述规律性变化。重金属对核酸代谢的影响结果取决于植物组织的适应性反应与金属离子的毒性反应的强度。文章还讨论了金属离子特征和可能存在的不同代谢活动的抗性诱导体系对植物毒性的影响,以及蛋白质的代谢活动对植物适应性水平的影响。     

Quantifying Vision Zero: Crash avoidance in rural and motorway accident scenarios by combination of ACC,AEB, and LKS projected to German accident occurrence

Abstract

Objective: The Vision Zero initiative pursues the goal of eliminating all traffic fatalities and severe injuries. Today’s advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are an important part of the strategy toward Vision Zero. In Germany in 2018 more than 26,000 people were killed or severely injured by traffic accidents on motorways and rural roads due to road accidents. Focusing on collision avoidance, a simulative evaluation can be the key to estimating the performance of state-of-the-art ADAS and identifying resulting potentials for system improvements and future systems.

This project deals with the effectiveness assessment of a combination of ADAS for longitudinal and lateral intervention based on German accident data. Considered systems are adaptive cruise control (ACC), autonomous emergency braking (AEB), and lane keeping support (LKS).

Methods: As an approach for benefit estimation of ADAS, the method of prospective effectiveness assessment is applied. Using the software rateEFFECT, a closed-loop simulation is performed on accident scenario data from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) precrash matrix (PCM). To enable projection of results, the simulative assessment is amended with detailed single case studies of all treated cases without PCM data.

Results: Three categories among today’s accidents on German rural roads and motorways are reported in this study: Green, grey, and white spots.

Green spots identify accidents that can be avoided by state-of-the-art ADAS ACC, AEB, and LKS. Grey spots contain scenarios that require minor system modifications, such as reducing the activation speed or increasing the steering torque. Scenarios in the white category cannot be addressed by state-of-the-art ADAS. Thus, which situations demand future systems are shown. The proportions of green, grey, and white spots are determined related to the considered data set and projected to the entire GIDAS.

Conclusions: This article describes a systematic approach for assessing the effectiveness of ADAS using GIDAS PCM data to be able to project results to Germany. The closed-loop simulation run in rateEFFECT covers ACC, AEB, and LKS as well as relevant sensors for environment recognition and actuators for longitudinal and lateral vehicle control.

Identification of green spots evaluates safety benefits of state-of-the-art level 0–2 functions as a baseline for further system improvements to address grey spots. Knowing which accidents could be avoided by standard ADAS helps focus the evolution of future driving functions on white spots and thus aim for Vision Zero.     

Traps and transformations influencing the financial viability of tourism on private‐land conservation areas

The ability of private conservation organizations to remain financially viable is a key factor influencing their effectiveness. One‐third of financially motivated private‐land conservation areas (PLCAs) surveyed in South Africa are unprofitable, raising questions about landowners’ abilities to effectively adapt their business models to the socioeconomic environment. In any complex system, options for later adaptation can be constrained by starting conditions (path dependence). We tested 3 hypothesized drivers of path dependence in PLCA ecotourism and hunting business models: (H1) the initial size of a PLCA limits the number of mammalian game and thereby predators that can be sustained; (H2) initial investments in infrastructure limit the ability to introduce predators; and (H3) rainfall limits game and predator abundance. We further assessed how managing for financial stability (optimized game stocking) or ecological sustainability (allowing game to fluctuate with environmental conditions) influenced the ability to overcome path dependence. A mechanistic PLCA model based on simple ecological and financial rules was run for different initial conditions and management strategies, simulating landowner options for adapting their business model annually. Despite attempts by simulated landowners to increase profits, adopted business models after 13 years were differentiated by initial land and infrastructural assets, supporting H1 and H2. A conservation organization's initial assets can cause it to become locked into a financially vulnerable business model. In our 50‐year simulation, path dependence was overcome by fewer of the landowners who facilitated natural ecological variability than those who maintained constant hunting rates and predator numbers, but the latter experienced unsustainably high game densities in low rainfall years. Management for natural variability supported long‐term ecological sustainability but not shorter term socioeconomic sustainability for PLCAs. Our findings highlight trade‐offs between ecological and economic sustainability and suggest a role for governmental support of the private conservation industry.     

Combining Structured Decision Making and Value‐of‐Information Analyses to Identify Robust Management Strategies

Abstract: Structured decision making and value‐of‐information analyses can be used to identify robust management strategies even when uncertainty about the response of the system to management is high. We used these methods in a case study of management of the non‐native invasive species gray sallow willow (Salix cinerea) in alpine Australia. Establishment of this species is facilitated by wildfire. Managers are charged with developing a management strategy despite extensive uncertainty regarding the frequency of fires, the willow's demography, and the effectiveness of management actions. We worked with managers in Victoria to conduct a formal decision analysis. We used a dynamic model to identify the best management strategy for a range of budgets. We evaluated the robustness of the strategies to uncertainty with value‐of‐information analyses. Results of the value‐of‐information analysis indicated that reducing uncertainty would not change which management strategy was identified as the best unless budgets increased substantially. This outcome suggests there would be little value in implementing adaptive management for the problem we analyzed. The value‐of‐information analyses also highlighted that the main driver of gray sallow willow invasion (i.e., fire frequency) is not necessarily the same factor that is most important for decision making (i.e., willow seed dispersal distance). Value of‐information analyses enables managers to better target monitoring and research efforts toward factors critical to making the decision and to assess the need for adaptive management.