基于PM2.5的中国雾霾灾害风险评价

基于雾霾胁迫、人口暴露和适应能力,结合遥感数据与统计数据,对2014年中国286个地级及以上城市的雾霾灾害风险进行评价,在此基础上,识别雾霾灾害风险热点区的风险主导因子.结果表明:中国城市雾霾灾害风险整体水平不高且内部差异显著,雾霾灾害风险大体呈"东高西低、北高南低"的空间布局特征.雾霾灾害风险热点区范围涵盖96个城市,占据国土面积92.4万km~2,波及人群数量5.9亿.风险主导因子分区方面,适应能力主导区分布在汕头、揭阳、邵阳、娄底、玉林、汕尾、达州、巴中、天水、昭通、潮州和贵港等12个城市;雾霾胁迫主导区分布在郑州、上海、成都、泰州、济南、西安、武汉、鄂州、南京、扬州、天津、无锡、嘉兴、南昌、常州、芜湖、淄博、合肥、镇江、黄石、马鞍山、南通和日照等23个城市,其余61个城市则属于雾霾胁迫-适应能力综合主导区.     

自适应人工鱼群-BP神经网络算法在径流预测中的应用

为了提高水库和河流中长期径流预测精度,提出了弹性自适应人工鱼群算法(RAAFSA)。应用RAAFSA算法训练BP神经网络,实现BP神经网络参数优化,形成弹性自适应人工鱼群-BP神经网络混合算法(RAAFSA-BP),对石泉水库进行中长期径流预测。仿真计算表明,弹性自适应人工鱼群优化的BP神经网络算法收敛速度快于BP神经网络算法、人工鱼群-BP神经网络算法和RBF神经网络算法。该混合算法克服了BP神经网络和人工鱼群算法易陷于局部极值、搜索质量差和精度不高的缺点,改善了BP神经网络的泛化能力,输出稳定性好,预报精度显著提高,每次预测相对误差绝对值都小于6%,合格率达到100%。该算法成功地解决了石泉水库中长期径流预测精度不高的难题,可有效用于水库和河川中长期径流预测。     

Using ecosystem-services assessments to determine trade-offs in ecosystem-based management of marine mammals

The goal of ecosystem-based management (EBM) is to support a sustainable and holistic multisectored management approach, and is recognized in a number of international policy frameworks. However, it remains unknown how these goals should be linked to assessments and management plans for marine fauna, such as mammals and fish stocks. It appears particularly challenging to carry out trade-off analyses of various ocean uses without a framework that integrates knowledge of environmental, social, and economic benefits derived from nonstationary marine fauna. We argue this gap can be filled by applying a version of the ecosystem-service approach at the population level of marine fauna. To advance this idea, we used marine mammals as a case study to demonstrate what indicators could operationalize relevant assessments and deliver an evidence base for the presence of ecosystem services and disservices derived from marine mammals. We found indicators covering common ecosystem service categories feasible to apply; examples of indicator data are already available in the literature for several populations. We encourage further exploration of this approach for application to marina fauna and biodiversity management, with the caveat that conceptual tensions related to the use of the ecosystem service concept itself needs to be addressed to ensure acceptance by relevant stakeholders.     

Identifying key needs for the integration of social–ecological outcomes in arctic wildlife monitoring

For effective monitoring in social–ecological systems to meet needs for biodiversity, science, and humans, desired outcomes must be clearly defined and routes from direct to derived outcomes understood. The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic, ecological, social, and economic changes and requires effective wildlife monitoring to meet diverse stakeholder needs. To identify stakeholder priorities concerning desired outcomes of arctic wildlife monitoring, we conducted in-depth interviews with 29 arctic scientists, policy and decision makers, and representatives of indigenous organizations and nongovernmental organizations. Using qualitative content analysis, we identified and defined desired outcomes and documented links between outcomes. Using network analysis, we investigated the structure of perceived links between desired outcomes. We identified 18 desired outcomes from monitoring and classified them as either driven by monitoring information, monitoring process, or a combination of both. Highly cited outcomes were make decisions, conserve, detect change, disseminate, and secure food. These reflect key foci of arctic monitoring. Infrequently cited outcomes (e.g., govern) were emerging themes. Three modules comprised our outcome network. The modularity highlighted the low strength of perceived links between outcomes that were primarily information driven or more derived (e.g., detect change, make decisions, conserve, or secure food) and outcomes that were primarily process driven or more derived (e.g., cooperate, learn, educate). The outcomes expand monitoring community and disseminate created connections between these modules. Key desired outcomes are widely applicable to social–ecological systems within and outside the Arctic, particularly those with wildlife subsistence economies. Attributes and motivations associated with outcomes can guide development of integrated monitoring goals for biodiversity conservation and human needs. Our results demonstrated the disconnect between information- and process-driven goals and how expansion of the monitoring community and improved integration of monitoring stakeholders will help connect information- and process-derived outcomes for effective ecosystem stewardship.     

A Decision Framework for the Adaptive Management of an Exploited Species with Implications for Marine Reserves

Abstract:  Marine reserves have both conservation and fishery benefits. Nevertheless, there are no general criteria about when and where to establish new reserves, how to evaluate their efficacy, and how to conduct adaptive management to achieve conservation goals. We applied a decision-theory framework to optimally allocate conservation resources between improving data on population status and establishing a reserve for species conservation. Our goal was to maximize reserve benefits given the constraints of a population growth rate that would permit sustainability of resources. We illustrate our decision framework with a retrospective analysis of a 7-year time series on abundance of the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in the Sea of Cortés, Mexico. We used the lower bound of the distribution of the population growth rate ( λ ) as a decision rule for determining how many years of monitoring are needed to detect reserve effects. We determined the minimum time frame needed to estimate λ based on a stated level of risk tolerance for four sites. As expected, the coefficient of variation for the λ declined with the number of years of data. This increased precision with additional years of data resulted from the high degree of annual variability in the system. Where populations were slow to respond to reserves, more data were needed to detect a positive λ value. For the leopard grouper case study, confidence in the estimate of λ increased with the number of years of data. Our decision framework may be used to identify the minimum number of years of data needed before a management decision about reserve establishment could be made that is reasonably likely to meet its management objectives.     

Designing Systematic Conservation Assessments that Promote Effective Implementation: Best Practice from South Africa

Abstract:  Systematic conservation assessment and conservation planning are two distinct fields of conservation science often confused as one and the same. Systematic conservation assessment is the technical, often computer-based, identification of priority areas for conservation. Conservation planning is composed of a systematic conservation assessment coupled with processes for development of an implementation strategy and stakeholder collaboration. The peer-reviewed conservation biology literature abounds with studies analyzing the performance of assessments (e.g., area-selection techniques). This information alone, however, can never deliver effective conservation action; it informs conservation planning. Examples of how to translate systematic assessment outputs into knowledge and then use them for "doing" conservation are rare. South Africa has received generous international and domestic funding for regional conservation planning since the mid-1990s. We reviewed eight South African conservation planning processes and identified key ingredients of best practice for undertaking systematic conservation assessments in a way that facilitates implementing conservation action. These key ingredients include the design of conservation planning processes, skills for conservation assessment teams, collaboration with stakeholders, and interpretation and mainstreaming of products (e.g., maps) for stakeholders. Social learning institutions are critical to the successful operationalization of assessments within broader conservation planning processes and should include not only conservation planners but also diverse interest groups, including rural landowners, politicians, and government employees.     

Enhancing Sustainability of the International Trade in Seahorses with a Single Minimum Size Limit

Abstract:  Management tools are needed to help regulate the international trade in seahorses (  Hippocampus spp.) under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) of Wild Fauna and Flora. Given the limited understanding of seahorse population dynamics and fishing mortality, a single minimum size limit for all seahorse species appears to be a useful initial step toward adaptive management, both biologically and socially. We collected data on maximum height and size at first maturity for 32 seahorse species and cross-validated the data with results from an analysis across marine teleosts. A minimum height restriction of 10 cm would permit, based on calculated data, reproduction in 15 species before they recruited to the fishery. Of the remaining 17 species, 16 were essentially not in international trade, were safeguarded under domestic legislation, or were partly protected by this size limit. Only one species, H. kelloggi , was not well served by the 10-cm minimum size limit. The CITES technical committee on animals has now decided to propose this single size limit to all 167 signatory nations as one option toward sustainable trade. Complementary management measures for seahorses are also required, particularly for populations primarily exploited in bycatch.     

Bush Tucker, Bush Pets, and Bush Threats: Cooperative Management of Feral Animals in Australia's Kakadu National Park

Abstract:  Although feral animal management is often based on the proposition that introduced species threaten ecological and conservation values, that view is not necessarily shared by all stakeholders, including those indigenous people who own and co-manage Kakadu National Park with Australia's federal government. Drawing on field-based interviews with the Jawoyn people, we found that these indigenous people categorize water buffalo (  Bubalus bubalis ) as an important food source (tucker), view horses (  Equus caballus ) as bush pets, and consider pigs (  Sus scrofa ) a threat to their lands. As a result, Jawoyn people want more water buffalo in the park, have high tolerance of environmental damage caused by horses, and are open to the idea that pig population densities should be reduced. Jawoyn also advocate an adaptive and participatory approach to feral animal control so that the consequences of any management actions can be properly understood before irrevocable change occurs. These findings highlight one example of how indigenous people's ecological knowledge has adapted in response to changing landscapes and community aspirations. Co-management strategies that aim to incorporate the dynamics of indigenous people's views need to start with issues on which there is agreement between different groups and take a cautious approach to joint exploration of more contentious issues. That approach should include ongoing and on-site monitoring so that the consequences of management actions can be properly understood and comprehensively negotiated by all parties.     

High beam headlamp use rates: Effects of rurality,proximity of other traffic,and roadway curvature

Objective: The few observational studies of the prevalence of high beam use indicate the rate of high beam use is about 25% when vehicles are isolated from other vehicles on unlit roads. Recent studies were limited to 2-lane rural roads and used measurement methods that likely overestimated use. The current study examined factors associated with the rate of high beam use of isolated vehicles on a variety of roadways in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area.

Methods: Twenty observation sites were categorized as urban, rural, or on a rural/urban boundary and selected to estimate the effects of street lighting, road curvature, and direction of travel relative to the city on high beam use. Sites were selected in pairs so that a majority of traffic passing one site also passed through the other. Measurement of high beams relied on video data recorded for 2 nights at each site, and the video data also were used to derive a precise measure of the proximity of other traffic. Nearly 3,200 isolated vehicles (10 s or longer from other vehicles) were observed, representing 1,500-plus vehicle pairs.

Results: Across the sample, 18% of the vehicles used high beams. Seventy-three percent of the 1,500-plus vehicle pairs used low beams at each paired site, whereas 9% used high beams at both sites. Vehicles at rural sites and sites at the boundaries of Ann Arbor were more likely to use high beams than vehicles at urban sites, but use in rural areas compared with rural/urban boundary areas did not vary significantly. Rates at all sites were much lower than expected, ranging from 0.9 to 52.9%. High beam use generally increased with greater time between subject vehicles and leading vehicles and vehicles in the opposing lane. There were mixed findings associated with street lighting, road curvature, and direction of travel relative to the city.

Conclusion: Maximizing visibility available to drivers from headlights includes addressing the substantial underuse of high beam headlamps. Advanced technologies such as high beam assist, which switches automatically between high and low beam headlamps depending on the presence of other traffic, can help to address this problem.     

A practical dialogue protocol for sustainability science to contribute to regional resources management: its implementation in Réunion

Over the last decade, adaptive co‐management has been recommended as a policy framework to address complex and uncertain resources management issues. Implementing this theoretical management concept requires the integration of multidisciplinary research and local knowledge. Yet practical protocols to link science, policymaking and societies have yet to be developed. We designed a protocol to produce legitimate, credible and relevant solutions to a regional resources management issue. This is a two‐component protocol. A stakeholder grid categorizes stakeholder representatives in three distinct specialized dialogue arenas: institution representatives, technical experts and local end‐users. An iterative co‐design process then builds on these arenas to assess the institutional legitimacy, technical credibility and empirical relevance dimensions of a common solution initiated by an initial plausible promise. We tested this framework in Réunion to address organic waste management issues at the regional level. The plausible solution explored was the introduction of a recycling industry involved in collecting organic waste and producing and selling organic fertilizers tailored for local crop systems. The protocol application outcomes were consolidated and documented scenarios accepted by all, with knowledge exchange and the broad spread of a stabilized expectation contributing to private initiatives and public policy change.