Adaptive management (AM) is a rigorous approach to implementing, monitoring, and evaluating actions, so as to learn and adjust those actions. Existing AM projects are at risk from climate change, and current AM guidance does not provide adequate methods to deal with this risk. Climate change adaptation (CCA) is an approach to plan and implement actions to reduce risks from climate variability and climate change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities. AM projects could be made more resilient to extreme climate events by applying the principles and procedures of CCA. To test this idea, we analyze the effects of extreme climatic events on five existing AM projects focused on ecosystem restoration and species recovery, in the Russian, Trinity, Okanagan, Platte, and Missouri River Basins. We examine these five case studies together to generate insights on how integrating CCA principles and practices into their design and implementation could improve their sustainability, despite significant technical and institutional challenges, particularly at larger scales. Although climate change brings substantial risks to AM projects, it may also provide opportunities, including creating new habitats, increasing the ability to quickly test flow‐habitat hypotheses, stimulating improvements in watershed management and water conservation, expanding the use of real‐time tools for flow management, and catalyzing creative application of CCA principles and procedures. 相似文献
Objective: Adaptive cruise control (ACC) has been investigated recently to explore ways to increase traffic capacity, stabilize traffic flow, and improve traffic safety. However, researchers seldom have studied the integration of ACC and roadside control methods such as the variable speed limit (VSL) to improve safety. The primary objective of this study was to develop an infrastructure-to-vehicle (I2V) integrated system that incorporated both ACC and VSL to reduce rear-end collision risks on freeways.
Methods: The intelligent driver model was firstly modified to simulate ACC behavior and then the VSL strategy used in this article was introduced. Next, the I2V system was proposed to integrate the 2 advanced techniques, ACC and VSL. Four scenarios of no control, VSL only, ACC only, and the I2V system were tested in simulation experiments. Time exposed time to collision (TET) and time integrated time to collision (TIT), 2 surrogate safety measures derived from time to collision (TTC), were used to evaluate safety issues associated with rear-end collisions. The total travel times of each scenario were also compared.
Results: The simulation results indicated that both the VSL-only and ACC-only methods had a positive impact on reducing the TET and TIT values (reduced by 53.0 and 58.6% and 59.0 and 65.3%, respectively). The I2V system combined the advantages of both ACC and VSL to achieve the most safety benefits (reduced by 71.5 and 77.3%, respectively). Sensitivity analysis of the TTC threshold also showed that the I2V system obtained the largest safety benefits with all of the TTC threshold values. The impact of different market penetration rates of ACC vehicles in I2V system indicated that safety benefits increase with an increase in ACC proportions.
Conclusions: Compared to VSL-only and ACC-only scenarios, this integrated I2V system is more effective in reducing rear-end collision risks. The findings of this study provide useful information for traffic agencies to implement novel techniques to improve safety on freeways. 相似文献
Unsustainable hunting outside protected areas is threatening tropical biodiversity worldwide and requires conservationists to engage increasingly in antipoaching activities. Following the example of ecocertified logging companies, we argue that other extractive industries managing large concessions should engage in antipoaching activities as part of their environmental management plans. Onshore hydrocarbon concessions should also adopt antipoaching protocols as a standard because they represent a biodiversity threat comparable to logging. We examined the spatiotemporal patterns of small‐ and large‐mammal poaching in an onshore oil concession in Gabon, Central Africa, with a Bayesian occupancy model based on signs of poaching collected from 2010 to 2015 on antipoaching patrols. Patrol locations were initially determined based on local intelligence and past patrol successes (adaptive management) and subsequently with a systematic sampling of the concession. We generated maps of poaching probability in the concession and determined the temporal trends of this threat over 5 years. The spatiotemporal patterns of large‐ and small‐mammal poaching differed throughout the concession, and likely these groups will need different management strategies. By elucidating the relationship between site‐specific sampling effort and detection probability, the Bayesian method allowed us to set goals for future antipoaching patrols. Our results indicate that a combination of systematic sampling and adaptive management data is necessary to infer spatiotemporal patterns with the statistical method we used. On the basis of our case study, we recommend hydrocarbon companies interested in implementing efficient antipoaching activities in their onshore concessions to lay the foundation of long‐needed industry standards by: adequately measuring antipoaching effort; mixing adaptive management and balanced sampling; setting goals for antipoaching effort; pairing patrols with large‐mammal monitoring; supporting antipoaching patrols across the landscape; restricting access to their concessions; performing random searches for bushmeat and mammal products at points of entry; controlling urban and agricultural expansion; supporting bushmeat alternatives; and supporting land‐use planning. 相似文献
Conservation scientists are increasingly focusing on the drivers of human behavior and on the implications of various sources of uncertainty for management decision making. Trophy hunting has been suggested as a conservation tool because it gives economic value to wildlife, but recent examples show that overharvesting is a substantial problem and that data limitations are rife. We use a case study of trophy hunting of an endangered antelope, the mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), to explore how uncertainties generated by population monitoring and poaching interact with decision making by 2 key stakeholders: the safari companies and the government. We built a management strategy evaluation model that encompasses the population dynamics of mountain nyala, a monitoring model, and a company decision making model. We investigated scenarios of investment into antipoaching and monitoring by governments and safari companies. Harvest strategy was robust to the uncertainty in the population estimates obtained from monitoring, but poaching had a much stronger effect on quota and sustainability. Hence, reducing poaching is in the interests of companies wishing to increase the profitability of their enterprises, for example by engaging community members as game scouts. There is a threshold level of uncertainty in the population estimates beyond which the year‐to‐year variation in the trophy quota prevented planning by the safari companies. This suggests a role for government in ensuring that a baseline level of population monitoring is carried out such that this level is not exceeded. Our results illustrate the importance of considering the incentives of multiple stakeholders when designing frameworks for resource use and when designing management frameworks to address the particular sources of uncertainty that affect system sustainability most heavily. Incentivando el Monitoreo y el Cumplimiento en la Caza de Trofeos 相似文献
Abstract: The Tiwi people of northern Australia have managed natural resources continuously for 6000–8000 years. Tiwi management objectives and outcomes may reflect how they gather information about the environment. We qualitatively analyzed Tiwi documents and management techniques to examine the relation between the social and physical environment of decision makers and their decision‐making strategies. We hypothesized that principles of bounded rationality, namely, the use of efficient rules to navigate complex decision problems, explain how Tiwi managers use simple decision strategies (i.e., heuristics) to make robust decisions. Tiwi natural resource managers reduced complexity in decision making through a process that gathers incomplete and uncertain information to quickly guide decisions toward effective outcomes. They used management feedback to validate decisions through an information loop that resulted in long‐term sustainability of environmental use. We examined the Tiwi decision‐making processes relative to management of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) fisheries and contrasted their management with the state government's management of barramundi. Decisions that enhanced the status of individual people and their attainment of aspiration levels resulted in reliable resource availability for Tiwi consumers. Different decision processes adopted by the state for management of barramundi may not secure similarly sustainable outcomes.相似文献
Adaptive strategies to deal with uncertainty in water management are often collaboratively developed. So far, however, little attention has been paid to the influence of collaboration on handling uncertainty through adaptive planning. In this paper, we study how collaboration has influenced the handling of uncertainty through adaptive planning for water management strategies for the IJsselmeer area in the Netherlands. We show how a fixation on certainty, different perspectives among actors and unclear responsibilities between arenas affect the handling of uncertainty, and found that it is adversely affected by collaboration. The use of adaptive planning challenged current water uses and system functions, creating resistance from actors. We conclude that developing a shared problem perception, creating a common understanding of uncertainties and ensuring a clear demarcation between the water system, its societal functions and water usage, are necessary to make adaptive planning successful in handling uncertainty. 相似文献
Current rates of climate change require organisms to respond through migration, phenotypic plasticity, or genetic changes via adaptation. We focused on questions regarding species’ and populations’ ability to respond to climate change through adaptation. Specifically, the role adaptive introgression, movement of genetic material from the genome of 1 species into the genome of another through repeated interbreeding, may play in increasing species’ ability to respond to a changing climate. Such interspecific gene flow may mediate extinction risk or consequences of limited adaptive potential that result from standing genetic variation and mutation alone, enabling a quicker demographic recovery in response to changing environments. Despite the near dismissal of the potential benefits of hybridization by conservation practitioners, we examined a number of case studies across different taxa that suggest gene flow between sympatric or parapatric sister species or within species that exhibit strong ecotypic differentiation may represent an underutilized management option to conserve evolutionary potential in a changing environment. This will be particularly true where advanced‐generation hybrids exhibit adaptive traits outside the parental phenotypic range, a phenomenon known as transgressive segregation. The ideas presented in this essay are meant to provoke discussion regarding how we maintain evolutionary potential, the conservation value of natural hybrid zones, and consideration of their important role in adaptation to climate. 相似文献
Abstract: Priorities for conservation, management, and associated activities will differ based on the interplay between nearness of ecosystems to full recovery from a disturbance (pristineness), susceptibility to climate change (environmental susceptibility [ES]), and capacity of human communities to cope with and adapt to change (social adaptive capacity [AC]). We studied 24 human communities and adjacent coral reef ecosystems in 5 countries of the southwestern Indian Ocean. We used ecological measures of abundance and diversity of fishes and corals, estimated reef pristineness, and conducted socioeconomic household surveys to determine the AC of communities adjacent to selected coral reefs. We also used Web-based oceanographic and coral mortality data to predict each site's ES to climate warming. Coral reefs of Mauritius and eastern Madagascar had low ES and consequently were not predicted to be affected strongly by warm water, although these sites were differentiated by the AC of the human community. The higher AC in Mauritius may increase the chances for successful self-initiated recovery and protective management of reefs of this island. In contrast, Madagascar may require donor support to build AC as a prerequisite to preservation efforts. The Seychelles and Kenya had high ES, but their levels of AC and disturbance differed. The high AC in the Seychelles could be used to develop alternatives to dependence on coral reef resources and reduce the effects of climate change. Pristineness weighted toward measures of fish recovery was greatest for Kenya's marine protected areas; however, most protected areas in the region were far from pristine. Conservation priorities and actions with realistic chances for success require knowledge of where socioecological systems lie among the 3 axes of environment, ecology, and society. 相似文献