灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型及其应用

自然灾害对国民经济和人民生活能造成巨大的损失 ,因此 ,研究灾害对国民经济的影响具有重要的意义。灾害系统是一个十分复杂的系统 ,直接建立灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型比较困难。本文基于投入产出方法 ,讨论了直接和间接经济损失在投入 -产出表中的表达方式 ,建立了灾害损失评估的定量分析模型 ,并以农业为例 ,分析了自然灾害造成的农业总产值损失对整个经济系统的影响。     

WATER QUALITY MODELING OF ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURAL SCENARIOS IN THE U.S. CORN BELT1

ABSTRACT: Simulated water quality resulting from three alternative future land‐use scenarios for two agricultural watersheds in central Iowa was compared to water quality under current and historic land use/land cover to explore both the potential water quality impact of perpetuating current trends and potential benefits of major changes in agricultural practices in the U.S. Corn Belt. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to evaluate the effect of management practices on surface water discharge and annual loads of sediment and nitrate in these watersheds. The agricultural practices comprising Scenario 1, which assumes perpetuation of current trends (conversion to conservation tillage, increase in farm size and land in production, use of currently‐employed Best Management Practices (BMPs)) result in simulated increased export of nitrate and decreased export of sediment relative to the present. However, simulations indicate that the substantial changes in agricultural practices envisioned in Scenarios 2 and 3 (conversion to conservation tillage, strip intercropping, rotational grazing, conservation set‐asides and greatly extended use of best management practices (BMPs) such as riparian buffers, engineered wetlands, grassed waterways, filter strips and field borders) could potentially reduce current loadings of sediment by 37 to 67 percent and nutrients by 54 to 75 percent. Results from the study indicate that major improvements in water quality in these agricultural watersheds could be achieved if such environmentally‐targeted agricultural practices were employed. Traditional approaches to water quality improvement through application of traditional BMPs will result in little or no change in nutrient export and minor decreases in sediment export from Corn Belt watersheds.     

SHORT TERM BENTHIC COLONIZATION DYNAMICS IN AN AGRICULTURAL STREAM RECOVERING FROM SLAUGHTERHOUSE EFFLUENTS1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to assess short term, macroinvertebrate colonization dynamics and biofilm accumulation in two agricultural streams, one of which had been recently exposed to chronic, intermittent organic effluents from a slaughterhouse. During the winter and summer, macroinvertebrates and biofilm were collected from brick substrates from four or three sites in the streams on a geometric time schedule (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32 days of exposure). Invertebrate total densities stabilized quickly, but the mass of biofilm increased throughout the study periods. Invertebrate community indices (diversity, evenness, dominance, richness) differed between the unaffected, “agricultural reference” sites and the affected sites, below the point source. All sites were dominated by Baetis bicaudatus (mayfly), Hydrobia sp. (gastropod), and Dugesia tigrina (Turbellaria). Response of these taxa differed between seasons and exposure to organic effluents. Stream invertebrate colonization processes showed evidence of the perturbation after the inflow of organic effluents had stopped from the slaughterhouse. Chronic organic enrichment reduced the species richness in the potential pool of colonists. Three months after the organic inputs had stopped, colonization timing and community structure was not yet at levels evident in reference and upstream sites.     

湖北稻区农业资源特点和耕作方式新发展

本文论证了湖北稻区的资源具有三大特点。因此,认定该区应细分为:东南部早三熟双季稻区,中部单、双季稻两热三熟并存区,西北部单季稻两熟区。笔者认为,本区近10年发展麦稻、油稻稻、油稻减少肥稻稻、肥稻其主流是好的;讨论了紫云英大量减步后如何解决有机肥源匮乏的问题。主张今后应积极开发冬种,积极提倡冬作起厢分带间套,既稳定大宗作物的发展,又增产经作、饲料、蔬菜、绿肥,以提高稻田的经济效益。     

CONCENTRATIONS OF POLLUTANTS IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT. .Eighteen rural lakes in Lubbock County were sampled on a routine basis following runoff-producing rainfall for a period of approximately eighteen months to determine whether or not runoff from intensively farmed agricultural areas contained significant concentrations of nitrates, phosphates, herbicides, or insecticides. An additional fifteen lakes lying within a triangle bounded by the cities of Plainview, Canyon, and Hereford, Texas, were sampled one time during the summer of 1969 to provide additional data regarding the nature and extent of the potential problem in an area with a different soil type and a slightly different cropping pattern. Based on results of detailed analyses of approximately two hundred samples of water collected from the lakes and an equal number of sediment samples collected from the same lakes at the same time, it appears that the concentrations of all chemical pollutants in runoff from agricultural lands in the High Plains are well below the allowable concentrations for drinking water.     

我国农业县（市）绿色食品发展对策研究

发展绿色食品是实现区域可持续发展和发展生态农业的一条有效途径。本文分析了我国农业县（市）发展绿色食品普遍存在的问题,在此基础上提出了发展绿色食品的对策。     

长江流域商品粮基地建设与农业持续发展

长江流域横跨我国中亚热带,光、热、水气候资源及其时空组合优势明显,土地自然生产力较高。粮食生产在全国占有重要地位。但由于流域内山地比重大,人口稠密,人均土地资源偏少,在现有耕地资源有限和粮食市场不稳等的多重压力下,历史时期内形成的“南粮北调”正逐渐被“北粮南调”所取代。在分析长江流域粮食生产现状和近二十年来商品粮基地建设对粮食生产的促进作用的基础上,从流域经济持续发展角度,提出了发挥长江流域粮食生     

三峡库区山地可持续农业发展的问题与对策

三峡库区山地农业的发展与三峡工程的命运休戚相关。本文在详细分析库区山地可持续农业发展的主要制约因素的基础上,提出了库区山地可持续农业发展的主要途径     

常熟市农业资源的开发潜力与对策

该文就常熟市农业资源的实际出发,从改造中低产田、开发长江滩地、复耕零星废弃地、利用庭园空间、立体利用水面、开发杂草资源、加工植物蛋白饲料及发展棉田套作等8个方面的途径,评价了农业开发潜力,说明在经济发达地区的农业开发是大有可为的。文章提出了相应的实施对策。     

Explaining Agricultural Expansion, Resource Booms and Growth in Latin America

The following paper examines the main factors determining long-run agricultural land expansion in Latin America compared to other tropical regions. Given the importance of natural resource-based sectors for most economies in Latin America, the impact of price-induced "resource booms" on economic growth in the region is explored. In addition, the paper examines whether there is an inherent "boom and bust" pattern of economic development associated with agricultural land expansion in Latin America, and the extent to which economic policies in the region exacerbate this problem. The paper concludes by examining the role of targeted policies in alleviating the structural obstacles to Latin American agricultural and economic development.