基于熵权的改进密切值法在地面水水质评价中的应用

为了简化传统密切值法运算,更能全面客观地反映出各样本的优劣情况,尝试采用目标差值率法进行初始矩阵的规范化处理,引入熵权法确定各评价指标的权重,对传统密切值法进行了改进.通过将两种不同密切值法对某区域水体水质的评价结果进行对比表明: 两种密切值法评价水质得出了一致的水质优劣排序,但改进后的密切值法可以有效地消除各评价指标在量纲、数量级及指标优劣等方面的差异,计算更简便; 改进后的密切值法利用熵权法确定各评价指标的权重,更客观; 改进后的密切值法评价结果中各样本的差异性放大了,对比更为明显.     

控制图分析法在煤矿安全管理中的应用

根据实践,介绍控制图分析法在煤矿安全管理中的应用,将控制图法应用于安全风险指标的统计分析可以对风险指标的发展趋势作出科学判断,评价系统安全状态是否有明显好转或恶化,检验安全管理及技术措施是否有效。以样本矿井为例,分别以月平均受伤人数、月平均计划外瓦斯超限次数为风险评价指标进行控制图分析。应用伤亡事故控制图进行安全管理,其主要优点是能够明确伤亡事故管理目标,掌握事故发展规律与趋势,有利于总结经验,吸取教训,在动态中进行安全管理。控制图分析法在煤矿安全管理中有着简便、实用、动态、预测等多种优点,对煤矿企业安全管理具有推广和借鉴意义。     

碗窑碾压混凝土坝变形成因分析及监控指标的拟定

鉴于碗窑碾压混凝土重力坝个别变形测点测值异常现象,依据大坝变形观测资料,通过变形规律时空分析和统计模型的建立,以及影响因子的分解,合理地解释了其变形成因,从而得出碗窑水库大坝变形性态总体正常的结论。为确保大坝安全运行,通过建立有限元力学模型和混合模型,拟定了典型坝段坝顶水平位移的一级监控指标,进而更有效地监控大坝的安全性态。另外,就个别测点坝段时效有呈逐年缓慢上升的趋势,建议管理单位加强观测,并及时分析,确保工程安全运行。     

基于因素重构分析法和主成分分析法的企业安全文化评价模型

针对当前安全文化评价领域存在的评价方法相对简单、主观性较强等问题,基于企业安全文化的人本主体,设计以企业决策层、管理层、执行层为主体的企业安全文化指标体系;充分利用因素重构分析法和主成分分析法在数据处理上的各种优势,建立适应指标体系特征并考虑数据约束条件的企业安全文化评价模型;通过实例分析加以验证。该模型为解决企业安全文化评价中指标体系庞大复杂、样本空间小、缺少可以直接利用的历史数据等难题给出了一条具有可操作性的路径。     

基于社会公共机构的道路交通事故经济损失评价及计量模型研究

根据中国道路交通事故经济损失的研究现状,借鉴国外对道路交通事故经济损失研究的成功经验,提出适用于中国实际情况的交通事故社会公共机构服务损失费用构成;确定了道路交通事故社会公共机构服务损失评价指标体系。基于经济学和统计学理论,主要从警方服务、清障服务、管理部门服务和法律诉讼服务4个方面对道路交通事故社会服务损失进行了深层次理论分析与评价;构建了相应的评价计量模型;提出了我国评价交通事故社会服务损失的一些合理化建议。研究结果对科学、全面、合理地评价道路交通事故社会经济损失具有重要的实际意义。     

江苏省某镇土壤重金属污染评价

为了解江苏省某镇表层土壤重金属污染特征,采集并测定了190个土壤样品的As、Cd、Hg和Pb 4种重金属含量,分析土壤重金属的分布特征,综合运用内梅罗综合污染指数法和污染负荷指数法两种评价方法对土壤重金属污染状况进行评价。结果表明：该镇表层土壤中As、Cd和Pb含量平均值高于土壤背景值,Hg与之相反。4种重金属都是主要受到点源污染的影响,其中As的高含量区主要分布在镇的正西边,Cd和Pb的高含量区主要分布在镇的中心区域,Hg的高含量区主要分布在东部以及东北区域。经内梅罗综合污染指数法评价,安全、警戒线、轻污染、中污染和重污染样点的比例分别为5.79%、32.11%、52.11%、4.74%和5.26%。经污染负荷指数法评价,无污染、轻度污染、中度污染和重度污染样点的比例分别为73.69%、25.26%、1.05%和0%。在内梅罗综合污染指数法和污染负荷指数法评价的结果中,有55.26%的样点评价结果相同,而44.74%的样点不同,但都显示出污染程度从镇中心向四周逐渐降低的变化态势。     

Growth of Plants on TBT-contaminated Harbour Sludge and Effect on TBT Removal (10 pp)

Background Worldwide, large amounts of sediments have to be dredged annually from waterways and harbours. These sediments are sometimes polluted with a variety of toxic compounds. In some countries, including Belgium, the load with the biocide tributyltin (TBT) from ship coatings prohibits the dumping of harbour sludge into the sea. Land-based dumping is a commonly used alternative. Objective This research investigated the feasibility to use land-deposited harbour sludge for plant production. In a field trial, the growth of 38 more or less salt-tolerant plant species on low and high TBT-contaminated sediments was studied. The elimination of TBT from sludge with and without vegetation was compared. The uptake of TBT and its degradation products di- and monobutyltin (DBT and MBT) into harvest products under field conditions was determined. - Experimental Set-up. Sediments dredged in May 2003 from the brackish waters of the port of Antwerp were analysed in the laboratory for soil texture, pH, electroconductivity, sodium, magnesium, potassium, calcium, ammonium, nitrate, total nitrogen, chloride, sulphur and the organotins TBT, DBT and MBT. The sediments were lagooned for one year to dewater, desalinate and improve their structure. Salt-tolerant domestic and wild plants were selected and sown in May 2004. In August 2004, plants were harvested and the produced biomass was determined. Samples were taken from vegetated and non-vegetated top and bottom sediments and from plants growing above soil and analysed for TBT, DBT and MBT. Results The fresh sediments showed a good supply with nutrients and a neutral pH, but were rather saline (EC 14 mS cm-1 of the saturated paste extract). The salinity decreased to 3.7 mS cm-1 during lagoonation. The high and the low contaminated sediment had initially 43 and 1.6 mg TBT kg-1 dry weight, respectively. Besides TBT, several other contaminants were present in the sediments at critical levels. The biomass production of the plant species from the field trial ranged from 0.2 to 13 tons dry mass per hectare. Plants performing excellently were barley, sorghum, rape seed, a clover/grass mix and reed. If at all, a positive influence of TBT on plant growth was seen. TBT was degraded significantly faster (>40%) below barley. The uptake of TBT, DBT and MBT into stem and leaves of reed, grass and clover was very low, but measurable and not related to concentrations in soil. No uptake of TBT or its metabolites into corn of barley was found. Discussion This study confirmed former results: the toxicity of TBT to higher plants is low, and even high levels in soils would not be a hindrance for crop production. The removal of TBT seemed to be increased by both lagooning and plant growth, although the target values for sea dumping in use in certain European countries were not reached. A plausible explanation for the faster degradation of TBT under vegetation is that oxygen is a limiting factor, and plants dewater the soil, thus aerating it. The uptake of the organotins TBT, DBT and MBT into harvest products is probably due to attached soil particles. Conclusions To summarize, barley was the optimal species: it grew very well despite the salinity of the dredged sediments, it had a significantly positive effect on TBT removal; it showed no measurable uptake of TBT or the other butyltins into the harvested product; and it is a cash crop well established in European agriculture. Outlook The amounts of dredged sediments are high, and good soils are becoming increasingly rare. The feasibility of using dredged sediments for non-food production, such as energy crops, should be investigated by a critical risk assessment.     

宁波市城市污水处理厂污泥处置方案探讨

随着城市污水处理率提高导致的污水污泥产量的增长趋势也使得污水污泥的处理问题更为突出。在总结国内外城市污泥处置技术发展趋势的基础上,结合宁波市的实际情况,根据无害化、减量化和资源化的原则,提出城市污泥近远期处置方案,并对处置方案作出可行性分析。     

建筑火灾风险评价体系的建立与应用探讨

探讨基于安全系统工程思想的建筑火灾风险评价指标体系的建立方法,并在该基础上,通过专家打分和层次分析法,计算得出各指标因子的权重值。根据有关标准和规范,对各评价指标因子进行等级划分,并设计出建筑火灾风险综合分值评分表,为厘定火灾保险费率提供依据。笔者的研究成果为完善建筑火灾风险评价方法、制定财产保险火灾风险评价标准等提供了科学依据。     

基于APJE-SLIM的海运人因失误概率的确定

安全是海运行业永恒的主题,调查研究表明,人因失误是造成海事的主要原因。为了对海运人因失误进行研究,探讨引起人因失误的行为形成因子(PSF),确定在PSF影响下的人因失误概率。在调查海上避让行为的人因失误和这些失误的行为形成因子的基础上,采用APJE和SLIM相结合的方法对航海人员避让行为中的可靠性进行分析。结果表明,航海人员疲劳与健康程度、知识、经验与培训水平、任务复杂程度、安全管理水平与组织有效性等PSF对人因失误概率有着不同程度的影响,相应提高PSF水平,可极大地减少人因失误概率。利用APJE确定端点绝对失误概率,解决了SLIM方法中难以获得参考点概率的问题,获得了在不同种类不同水平PSF影响下的海运人因失误概率。