A Screening Test for the Determination of Ethylene Sensitivity

Ethephon, which releases ethylene within plant tissues after application, was chosen to perform assessments of the relative sensitivity of crops to ethylene and to determine which stages of plant development were most sensitive. The species chosen were: barley, wheat, oats, canola and field pea, all of which are important crops in the province of Alberta, Canada. Plants were treated with ethephon at one of 7 different stages. Plants were assessed for their vegetative and reproductive growth, including height, biomass, yield and seed quality. Visual symptoms were photographed and documented to compare them with symptoms caused by ethylene applied as a gas. It was concluded that in barley, wheat and canola the late vegetative and early reproductive stages were most sensitive, at least when sensitivity was defined as reductions in yield and quality. As for field pea, ethephon had no effect on yield but did cause increased numbers of pods, which in certain conditions could lead to increased yields. Significant effects on vegetative growth were only observed in the early vegetative stages of development but with no effects on yield. The screening protocol successfully identified sensitive cultivars and growth stages for further investigation of the effects of ethylene exposure.     

乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气质量变化趋势分析

为了定量评价乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气污染近五年的治理成效,给环境治理决策提供科学依据,运用回归分析方法,对乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气质量的浓度、级别和变化规律进行回归分析。分析结果表明,PM10、SO2、NO2三项污染物的浓度都有所下降,空气质量级别的污染天数呈现明显的月变化规律。乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气的重污染状况有所遏制,但SO2污染凸现,在下一步的治理工作中,加强尘污染治理的同时要加大对SO2的治理力度。     

Assessing Spatial, Temporal, and Analytical Variation of Groundwater Chemistry in a Large Nuclear Complex, USA

Statistical analyses were applied at the Hanford Site, USA, to assess groundwater contamination problems that included (1) determining local backgrounds to ascertain whether a facility is affecting the groundwater quality and (2) determining a ‘pre-Hanford' groundwater background to allow formulation of background-based cleanup standards. The primary purpose of this paper is to extend the random effects models for (1) assessing the spatial, temporal, and analytical variability of groundwater background measurements; (2) demonstrating that the usual variance estimate s ², which ignores the variance components, is a biased estimator; (3) providing formulas for calculating the amount of bias; and (4) recommending monitoring strategies to reduce the uncertainty in estimating the average background concentrations. A case study is provided. Results indicate that (1) without considering spatial and temporal variability, there is a high probability of false positives, resulting in unnecessary remediation and/or monitoring expenses; (2) the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty in estimating the average background, and enhance the power of the statistical tests in general, is to increase the number of background wells; and (3) background for a specific constituent should be considered as a statistical distribution, not as a single value or threshold. The methods and the related analysis of variance tables discussed in this paper can be used as diagnostic tools in documenting the extent of inherent spatial and/or temporal variation and to help select an appropriate statistical method for testing purposes.     

天津地区集装箱内部低温环境条件研究

以天津地区冬季采用集装箱储存货物为背景,在天津对集装箱内部温度和大气温度等数据进行测试,对数据进行回归分析后,建立集装箱内部温度模型,预测出该地区集装箱内部最恶劣的低温极值范围,为危险货物集装箱安全储运提供理论依据,并提出了相应的对策及建议。     

Modelling Phosphorus Retention in Lakes and Reservoirs

Steady-state models for the prediction of P retention coefficient (R) in lakes were evaluated using data from 93 natural lakes and 119 reservoirs situated in the temperate zone. Most of the already existing models predicted R relatively successfully in lakes while it was seriously under-estimated in reservoirs. A statistical analysis indicated the main causes of differences in R between lakes and reservoirs: (a) distinct relationships between P sedimentation coefficient, depth, and water residence time; (b) existence of significant inflow–outflow P concentration gradients in reservoirs. Two new models of different complexity were developed for estimating R in reservoirs: , where τ is water residence time (year), was derived from the Vollenweider/Larsen and Mercier model by adding a calibrated parameter accounting for spatial P non-homogeneity in the water body, and is applicable for reservoirs but not lakes, and , where [P_in] is volume-weighted P concentration in all inputs to the water body (μg l⁻¹), was obtained by re-calibrating the OECD general equation, and is generally applicable for both lakes and reservoirs. These optimised models yield unbiased estimates over a large range of reservoir types.     

基于FHWA的兰州市道路交通噪声预测模型的建立

结合美国道路交通噪声污染预测模型(FHWA)和国内学者在该方面的大量研究成果,选择兰州市主、次干道共计52条、142个监测点的建模采样数据,并应用统计学原理分析了影响道路交通噪声的各个因子与道路交通噪声的相关性,最终得出了符合兰州市道路交通特征的噪声污染统计预测模型.随后通过兰州市15个监测点的预测与实测对比验证后发现二者具有较高的一致性,此模型可应用在兰州市道路交通噪声污染的预测评价中.     

重庆市大气污染物的空间统计分析

利用空间统计分析方法(spatial statistics analysis),借助GIS,分析了重庆市3种主要大气污染物TSP,SO₂和NO_x质量浓度在空间上的分布特点.研究表明,在"九五"期间和2002年2个时期,重庆市大气污染物在空间上均呈不均衡分布.整体上,SO₂的空间自相关性很强,属集中分布模式;TSP的空间自相关性较弱,属于随机分布模式;NO_x处于二者之间.局部相关性分析表明,大部分区县的大气污染物之间相关性较弱.此外,利用缓冲区和内插浓度表面法分析了2个时期的污染物质量浓度随离行政中心距离变化的趋势,发现ρ(TSP)和ρ(SO₂)在各地带内均有明显削减,而ρ(NO_x)削减不显著;ρ(SO₂)和ρ(NO_x)随距行政中心距离增大下降,但ρ(TSP)随距离增大而增加.3种污染物质量浓度都在离行政中心50～60 km的地带发生明显变化,由此得出目前重庆市大气污染物空间分布的特征距离为50～60km.      

土地利用/覆盖变化对长江上游非点源污染影响研究

在国内外相关研究的基础上,利用输出系数模型,结合RS和GIS技术,对长江上游的非点源污染负荷进行了空间模拟和负荷估算.模拟结果表明,在不考虑流域损失的前提下,由于土地利用造成的非点源污染负荷TN总量从20世纪70年代的123万t下降至2000年的116万t,基本呈逐年减少的趋势,由土地利用造成的TP的变化趋势与TN基本相同,从70年代的3.7万t下降到2000年的3.5万t左右.就省份、土地利用类型和水系而言,四川省、种植用地和草地以及金沙江水系和嘉陵江水系对长江上游的非点源污染贡献较大.在非点源污染负荷强度上,重庆市和嘉陵江水系单位面积负荷最高,是今后应重点治理的地区.结果表明,该模型可以对长江上游这样的超大尺度空间的非点源污染进行较好的空间模拟.     

长江流域点源氮磷营养盐的排放、模型及预测

通过分析1985～2003年长江流域向河口/东海排放的点源营养盐的时空变化规律,建立长江点源营养盐排放模型,并预测2020年长江流域点源氮磷排放情况.模型基于人口密度、国内生产总值、人均氮磷排放量、以及污水处理率等因子,在99%的置信度上,氮磷模型的方差解释量分别达到92.3%及93.2%.基于此模型预测2020年长江流域点源氮排放量将达到(95 9±6 6)×104t,点源磷排放量达到(12.3±0.6)×104t.此外,研究结果进一步表明,点源营养盐通量仍然是长江输送营养盐总量的主要部分,是影响河口/近海水质的主要因素.     

生态足迹理论对生态城市建设的启示

介绍了生态足迹理论基本概念和计算模型,并运用该模型,对上海市生态足迹进行了计算和分析。在此基础上探讨了生态足迹理论对生态城市建设的启示,提出应在不降低人们生活水平的前提下,减少生态足迹,提高城市的可持续发展能力。