石化行业泄漏检测与修复评估指标体系的建立与应用

泄漏检测与修复(LDAR)是国际上通用的减少石化行业VOCs无组织排放的技术方法。在对天津市60套石化化工装置进行LDAR核查评估及专家咨询的基础上,将层次分析法(AHP)与模糊综合评价法(FCE)相结合,建立了一个4层次24个指标的评估指标体系,通过AHP确定指标权重,利用FCE进行模糊综合评分。以甲、乙两石化企业为例进行LDAR评估指标体系的验证,结果表明,该指标体系评估结果与实际LDAR核查评估结果一致,具有良好的实际应用价值。     

长江中游城市群太阳辐射长期变化特征及其与气象要素的关系研究

基于长江中游5个气象辐射站点1961年以来的每日太阳辐射成分及其他气象观测数据,应用线性回归、相关分析、Pettitt突变检验等方法,探讨了近半世纪以来长江中游城市群太阳辐射的变化特征,指明地面接收太阳辐射的突变年份,并分析了太阳辐射与相关气象要素的关系。结果表明:近53年来长江中游地面接收太阳总辐射呈现先下降("变暗")、后上升("变亮")的趋势,该区域的辐射变化与全球范围内的"变暗"及"变亮"的变化趋势是一致的。日照时数与太阳辐射呈现较为显著的正相关性,相关系数r为0.63;而降水量则与太阳辐射呈现负相关性,相关系数r为–0.41。太阳辐射的这种突变变化也直接导致了气温的变化,在"变暗"阶段,太阳辐射与最高气温、气温日较差呈现出显著的正相关性,相关系数分别达到0.61和0.82,但其与最低气温、平均气温的相关性则不显著;在"变亮"阶段,太阳辐射与最高气温、气温日较差、平均气温呈现出正相关性,相关系数分别为0.56、0.62以及0.46,但其与最低气温的相关性则不显著。     

Elemental composition and nutritional value of the edible fruits of coastal red-milkwood (Mimusops caffra) and impact of soil quality on their chemical characteristics

In this study, the elemental distribution of essential and toxic elements in the soil and fruits of the indigenous plant species, Mimusops caffra, from ten sites along the KwaZulu-Natal east coast was investigated using inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry. This was done to determine the nutritional value of the fruits as well as to evaluate the impact of soil quality on elemental uptake by the plant. The elemental concentrations in the fruits (in descending order) were found to be K > Na > Ca > Mg > Si > Al > Fe > Zn > Mn > Ni > Cr > Cu > Pb > Mo > Sb > As > Se > V > Cd > Co. The results show that approximately 10 g of fruit would contribute more than 85% towards the recommended dietary allowance for Fe and Si for most adults. The proximate chemical composition revealed the fruits to contain approximately 84% moisture, 4.7% ash, 6.9% protein, 1.7% oil and 2.7% carbohydrates. The study indicates that the fruits of this indigenous plant species are a good source of essential elements with low levels of potentially toxic elements (Pb, As and Cd) which makes the plant a good indigenous food source especially for vulnerable communities that need food security.     

江苏省风电场的气象灾害风险评估

在分析江苏省风电场气象灾害特征的基础上,建立了以江苏省为例的风电场气象灾害风险性评价模型,确定台风密度、龙卷风密度、雷暴密度、风机密度、单机发电功率、人均GDP这6个因子作为评估指标。结合GIS技术和层次分析法对江苏省长江以北各县市风电产气象灾害风险度进行了区划。结果表明,江苏省长江以北的沿海城市:南通和盐城区域为风电场气象灾害的极高风险区和高风险区,而同样为沿海城市的连云港与苏中地区的泰州市、扬州市和苏北地区的淮安为风电场气象灾害的中风险区,宿迁和徐州均为风电场气象灾害的低风险区。     

大连周家沟黄土元素地球化学特征与环境

分析了辽南大连周家沟黄土剖面的常量元素、CaC03、pH值、有机质,并与相关反应的环境变化指标进行了对比.结果表明,周家沟黄土与黄土高原化学成分及含量相差不大,元素差异反映沉积期后气候环境因素不同;元素迁移和积聚在马兰黄土和离石黄土中表现不同,说明在中更新世晚期和晚更新世气候发生由温湿变为冷干的明显变化;氧化物比值综合参数表明,周家沟在晚更新世气候总的变暖趋势下经历了三次气候旋回波动.     

Water Quality of Medium Size Watercourse Under Baseflow Conditions: The Case Study of River Sutla in Croatia

The study on medium size river Sutla in Croatia indicated considerable water contamination at specific sites during the baseflow period, probably associated to low flow-rate (0.73-68.8 m3 s(-1)), and consequently low dilution capacity of this river. Various aspects of contamination were observed: increased conductivity to 1,000 microS cm(-1), decreased dissolved oxygen level to 50%, 4-5 degrees C increased water temperature, increased concentrations of several dissolved trace elements (e.g., maximal values of Li: 45.4 microg l(-1); Rb: 10.4 microg l(-1); Mo: 20.1 microg l(-1); Cd: 0.31 microg l(-1); Sn: 30.2 microg l(-1); Sb: 11.8 microg l(-1); Pb: 1.18 microg l(-1); Ti: 1.03 microg l(-1); Mn: 261.1 microg l(-1); and Fe: 80.5 microg l(-1)) and macro elements (e.g., maximal values of Na: 107.5 mg l(-1); and K: 17.3 mg l(-1)), as well as moderate or even critical fecal (E. coli: 4,888 MPN/100 ml; total coliforms: 45,307 MPN/100 ml; enterococci: 1,303 MPN/100 ml) and organic pollution (heterotrophic bacteria: 94,000 cfu/ml). Although metal concentrations still have not exceeded the limits considered as hazardous for aquatic life or eventually for human health, the observed prominent increases of both metal concentrations and bacterial counts in the river water should be considered as a warning and incentive to protect the small and medium size rivers from the future deterioration, as recommended by EU Water Framework Directive.     

基于层次分析和模糊综合评价的电网系统应急能力评估

为应对电网的各类突发事件,提高电网系统的应急能力,对电网系统的应急能力进行定量评估,提出完善的电网应急能力评估体系框架,采用层次分析法对电网企业A的应急能力指标权重进行确定,并运用模糊综合评价法对其电网应急能力进行评估。结果表明:基于评估结果建议电网企业A应急能力各环节的优化顺序为应急预防、应急响应、应急恢复、应急准备,且重点优化电网可靠性和调度及二次系统。运用该方法可较为准确地对电网系统的应急能力进行定量评估,为电网系统应急管理能力的提高提供科学依据。     

基于IIAHP-Entropy-ssd的采空区遗煤自燃危险性评价模型及应用

为了能够对煤矿采空区遗煤自燃危险性进行准确判定,提出基于IIAHP-Entropy-ssd最优综合赋权模糊评价模型。首先,结合影响采空区遗煤的自燃性及环境影响因素,建立危险性评价指标体系,并确定各评价指标的分级准则;其次,利用区间数代替数值评价打分,并运用可能度互补矩阵进行修正的改进区间数层次分析法（IIAHP）,结合熵权法（Entropy）,根据现场实测数据,得出各评价指标的主、客观权重,并运用离差平方和（ssd）的最大化思想进行最优综合赋权,克服评价过程中主、客观因素对评价结果的影响,运用属性数学理论,建立各评价指标的隶属函数;最后,运用该模型对忻州窑矿8914综放工作面采空区遗煤自燃危险性进行评价,并与现场实际情况进行对比,结果表明:该模型的评价结果与实际情况基本一致,验证了该评价模型的准确性,为采空区遗煤自燃危险性评价提供参考和借鉴思路。     

重庆市主城区气象要素与空气质量相关性研究

基于重庆主城区2010-2012年逐日的气象要素和大气环境质量监测数据,对气象条件与空气污染指数(API)进行相关性研究,分析气象条件影响空气质量的机制及协同作用,明确显著影响空气质量的气象要素。结果表明,当天的空气质量与前一天的空气质量相关性非常显著;各气象要素之间存在明显的协同作用,共同影响主城的空气质量;主城空气质量与大部分气象要素之间存在着相关性。其中空气污染指数与降雨、风速的相关性尤为密切。以期本研究成果能为重庆蓝天行动提供技术支持。     

基于模糊神经网络的深井底板突水判别研究

通过分析深井底板突水因素的影响作用,建立各影响因素的层次分析结构模型,运用层次分析法计算各影响因素的权重并进行排序,进而选出深井底板突水的主控因素。在该基础上,建立隶属度和隶属函数实现各因素的归一,构建基于模糊神经网络的深井底板突水判别模型,选择合适的网络结构参数以改善神经网络的缺点,并选取样本训练网络,以现场实例为验证样本,以突水等级作为输出结果,该判别表明基本符合工程实践。