中国粮食产量变化的驱动效应及其空间分异研究

粮食安全是一个国家和地区经济和社会稳定发展的基础,而粮食产量则是衡量粮食安全的最为重要指标,研究粮食产量变化的驱动效应对于实现其持续稳定增长具有重要意义。综合考虑种植业结构、农林牧渔业结构、农业生产经济收益、农业劳动力等各因素对粮食产量的影响,从农业经济学的视角出发,构建了粮食产量分解的理论框架。基于这一框架,将粮食产量变化分解为种植经济的粮食安全效应、农业结构调整效应、农业劳动力农业经济收益效应、农业劳动力当量效应等4种。采用对数平均迪氏分解模型(LMDI)和粮食生产的空间转移系数,揭示了4种效应对1978—2014年中国粮食产量的时序变化以及2000—2013年全国31省(市、区)粮食产量的空间变化的影响程度。研究结果表明:无论从时间还是空间变化方面,农业劳动力农业经济收益效应都是驱动粮食增产的首要因素,种植经济的粮食安全效应则是抑制粮食增产的首要因素。在政府主导模式下,农业结构调整对粮食增产的负面影响较小,而在农户主导模式下,农业结构调整对粮食产量的负面影响明显增强,这一结果在粮食主产区表现尤为明显。1978—2014年,中国劳动力当量效应对粮食产量变化由正向驱动作用不断向负向抑制作用转变,且其对粮食增产的抑制作用不断增强,这一现象在粮食主产区表现也尤为突出。因此,为促进中国粮食产量持续增长,尤其需要发挥政府在粮食主产区农业结构调整中的主导作用,在确保农民生产粮食基本收益的基础上,加快延伸粮食生产产业链,进一步增加农民收入来源,促进劳动力资源在城乡之间的有效配置。     

基于Sen可行能力理论测度中国社会福利指数

本研究基于阿玛蒂亚·森(Sen)可行能力理论,运用2008-2013年中国31个省(市)面板数据,采取模糊数学理论与主成分因子分析法测度中国社会福利指数。通过理论与实证研究发现:第一,东中西部地区社会福利指数差异性较大,其波动呈不规则趋势,且社会福利与经济发展呈脱钩状况。第二,计算MI与GC指数发现,各地区社会福利指数之间存在正的空间相关性,且东中西部地区社会福利指数存在空间集聚与扩散现象。第三,利用动态空间面板模型实证检验发现,社会福利指数存在时滞性,且城镇化率与外贸出口占比越高,越有利于提高社会福利水平,而经济增长与工业化对社会福利影响力相对较低。鉴于此,为有效提高中国社会福利,使经济发展与社会福利二者相匹配,本研究提出以下政策建议:首先,学术界应改变传统的福利经济学思维体系,将更多的研究重点放在功能自由与能力自由两方面。其次,各地区应加强区域间交流合作,减少"以邻为壑"现象,促进区域发展一体化。最后,中央与地方政府应转变经济发展模式与理念,加大民生与环境保护方面投入,进而提高居民生活质量。     

危险废物安全填埋场的环境经济分析

遵循国家颁布的《中华人民共和国固体废物污染环境防治》、对工业固体废物中危险废物处理处置技术和方法进行系统研究,推荐采用安全填埋法处置工业危险废物。从环境经济角度论证安全填埋法方案可行性,采用效益费用分析法对实例进行分析,最终得出安全填埋法方案的实用性,可行性结论。     

土地资源永续利用的生态经济对策

土地资源是人类赖以生存的最基本的自然资源,土地资源的永续利用是实现社会、经济和生态全面可持续发展的基础。本文在分析土地资源利用特点,土地资源永续利用的内涵、原则与指南的基础上,提出了实现土地资源永续利用的一系列生态经济对策。     

Determination of phenolic and steroid endocrine disrupting compounds in environmental matrices

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Many pollutants have received significant attention due to their potential estrogenic effect and are classified as endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs). EDCs comprise many classes of organic compounds. The development or optimization of analytical protocols for the simultaneous determination of EDCs in environmental samples is an analytical challenge because these compounds exhibit different physicochemical characteristics, they occur in the aquatic environment in relatively low concentrations and, furthermore, environmental samples are considered as complex matrices. The aim of this study is the development of analytical methods for the simultaneous determination of phenolic and steroid EDCs in aqueous and solid samples. The target compounds are 4-nonylphenol, 4-octylphenol, their ethoxylate oligomers (mono- and di-ethoxylates of nonylphenol and octylphenol), bisphenol A, the estrogens (estriol, estrone, 17beta-estradiol, 17alpha-estradiol) and the synthetic steroids (mestranol and 17alpha-ethynylestradiol). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Solid phase extraction employing Oasis HLB cartridges and different elution solvents was used for the recovery studies of the target compounds from various types of water samples (ultrapure water, artificial seawater, river water and seawater). Ultrasonic assisted extraction was applied for the recovery of the target EDCs from the solid samples. The recoveries were assessed using various solvents for the extraction and the elution of EDCs from different SPE cartridges used for clean up. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry after derivatization with N,O-bis(trimethylsilyl)-trifluoroacetamide was employed for the determination of these compounds. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The recovery rates of three elution solvents (methanol, acetone and ethylacetate) for the extraction of target EDCs from artificial seawater were assessed after preconcentration on SPE cartridges. Acetone showed better recoveries and was further tested for its extraction efficiency in different water types (river water, seawater). Ultrasonic assisted extraction was used for the recovery of target EDCs from solid matrices. Acetone, methanol, mixture of acetone-methanol (1:1) and ethylacetate were used as extraction solvents. Ethylacetate and the mixture of acetone-methanol (1:1) exhibited better extraction efficiencies. An additional clean up step was necessary for sediment samples. Different SPE cartridges were employed for clean up of the extracts (Oasis HLB, C18, Florisil, silica, combination of silica and alumina). Florisil cartridges were finally used. The proposed methods were further validated on the determination of target EDCs in field collected samples (river water, seawater, wastewater, total suspended solids and sediments) from the major area of Thessaloniki, Greece. CONCLUSIONS: Efficient and accurate integrated methods for the simultaneous determination of alkylphenols (nonylphenol, octylphenol), their ethoxylate oligomers (mono- and di-ethoxylate of nonylphenol and octylphenol), bisphenol A and steroids (estriol, estrone, 17beta-estradiol, 17alpha-estradiol, mestranol and 17alpha-ethynylestradiol) in aqueous and solid samples were developed. The proposed methods were applied for the determination of the target compounds in representative environmental samples in the area of Thessaloniki, Northern Greece. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: This study confirms the occurrence of selected EDCs in inland and marine waters in the area of Thessaloniki, Northern Greece. Since there is no previous data on the occurrence of the target EDCs in the major area, an extended survey is in progress to evaluate the occurrence and fate of these compounds.     

污水厂污泥中全氟烷基表面活性剂的高灵敏检测方法优化

为了保证短链和长链全氟烷基表面活性剂(PASs)均具有较高的回收率,并尽量提高方法的选择性、灵敏度和精密度,对污泥中PASs的检测方法进行了优化.在选择合适固相萃取柱的基础上,对超声波辅助溶剂萃取进行优化,以解决全氟十四烷酸(PFTA)等长链PASs回收率低的问题.同时,改造液质系统以减弱全氟辛酸(PFOA)的溶出干扰,并优化仪器检测方法以获取更佳的方法检出限(MDL)和方法定量限(MQL).研究结果表明,各种PASs的MDL和MQL分别在0.05~0.20 ng·g^-1和0.20~0.40 ng·g^-1的范围内,回收率介于81%±10%~118%±11%的范围内,相对标准偏差(RSD)介于3%~17%的范围内,这说明优化后的检测方法在检测污泥样品时具有较高的灵敏度、准确性和精密度.     

水库网箱养鱼环境经济学分析

以密云水库为研究对象，分析了水库网箱养鱼对水库局部水域水质和水库出水水质的影响程度，并从环境经济学角度对水库网箱养鱼进行了费用－效益分析，指出应禁止在密云水库进行网箱养鱼作业。     

清水江水质评价与变化趋势的显著性分析研究

以贵州省黔南州清水江监测数据为例,采用五元联系数方法进行水质评价.分析表明,该方法是一种客观有效的评价方法,评价茶园、兴仁桥两个断面均优于环境规划类等级.针对TP、氟化物指标浓度严重超标问题,采用Daniel趋势检验法测试2006年-2010年指标浓度变化的显著性,结果说明：5年内清水江重安江大桥河段TP、氟化物浓度降低的趋势显著性较高;而兴仁桥河段TP浓度降低的趋势显著性偏低;氟化物浓度几乎不变,变化不显著.由此说明,黔南州清水江水质得到改善.     

21世纪矿产资源经济展望

简要阐明了矿产资源经济、矿产经济和矿业经济基本概念和相互关系 ,在对我国内外矿产资源特点与需求分析基础上 ,探讨了21世纪矿产资源经济的基本问题 ,提出我国21世纪的矿产资源勘查评价的科学问题。     

污染土壤和底泥中可提取态有机卤化物的分析方法研究

选用甲苯／正已烷、丙酮／正已烷两种混合溶剂作为污染土壤和底泥中可提取态有机卤化物的提取剂，与乙酸乙脂作为提取剂进行三种溶剂超声法提取效率的比较，采用微库仑法进行测定方法改进的研究。实验结果表明，采用1：9的丙酮／正乙烷混合溶剂的提取效率较高，其平均回收率与乙酸乙脂法接近，而且回收率范围比乙酸乙脂法波动更小。以1：9的丙酮／正已烷混合溶剂作为提取剂的方法还表明：无机可溶性卤化物对EOX测定不产生干扰，分析方法的最低检出浓度范围为0．1－0．4mg(Cl)/kg，测定范围为0－250．00mg(Cl)/kg，添加标准样品的相对标准偏差为3．38％－5．09％。