灾后企业选址问题的模型研究

建立了灾后企业选址的一种决策模型。对遭受自然或人为灾害打击中,不得不进行迁移的企业,如何实施有效的选址决策进行了研究,在给定假设的基础上,构造了一个非线性规划问题,提出了进行区位决策的迭代算法,并对如何解决已有多个企业及顾客有偏好的复杂情况进行了讨论,研究表明,在以市场竞争为导向的动态选址过程中,企业从最大程度地占有市场的目标出发,倾向于定位在一个特定的市场吸引点上。     

水权制度选择理论——基于交易成本、租值消散的研究

水资源配置大致存在完全政府配置、完全市场配置和准市场配置3种模式。中国正处于水权制度改革的过程中,水资源配置制度有从完全政府配置转向依靠市场配置的趋势。新制度经济学的交易成本理论和租值消散理论可以为新的水权制度的设计和选择提供依据。水资源的不同配置制度对应着相应的交易成本,相对较好的制度应该能在扣除交易成本之后获得较多的社会净租值。目前我国水资源管理的当务之急是根据经济理性,科学地界定好水资源的公有和私有权利,并由完全政府管制向市场体制转型。     

用高效液相色谱法分析精对苯二甲酸残渣

用高效液相色谱法分析精对苯二甲酸残渣,考察了适宜的操作条件。实验结果表明,在采用阴离子交换柱作分析柱,浓度为0．2mol／L的磷酸二氢铵缓冲液为流动相、体积分数为10％的甲醇作有机改性剂、用磷酸调试样pH为6—7、检测波长为240nm的最佳条件下,分离效果最好,对羧基苯甲醛、苯甲酸、对甲基苯甲酸、邻苯二甲酸、对苯二甲酸、间苯二甲酸、1,2,4-苯三酸、1,3,5-苯三酸的加标回收率分别为98．39％,98．81％,98．66％,97．73％,98．93％,98．90％,98．25％,98．40％。相对标准偏差分别为0．87％,0．49％,0．76％,0．88％,0．71％,0．46％,0．63％,0．47％,方法的检出限分别为0．1,0．2,0．1,0．4,0．1,0．4,0．6,2．0mg／L,线性范围分别为0．88-17．50,1．48～29．60,1．47～29．30,1．34～26．80,1．79～35．80,2．70～53．90,2．98～59．50,3．00～59．90mg／L。     

水环境安全评价体系的指标赋权研究

研究了改进型层次分析法(IAHP)用于水环境安全评价体系的指标赋权计算。针对传统层次分析法(AHP)赋权过程难以精确给出元素间相对重要性判断且一致性检验计算量较大的缺点,将传统AHP方法中构造比较矩阵的九标度法改为三标度法,并采用自调节方法建立比较矩阵,然后将其转化成一致性判断矩阵。采用IAHP法对水环境安全评价过程进行赋权计算,可使专家和决策者较易给出比较矩阵,并且由于不需要进行一致性检验而自然满足一致性要求,简化了一致性检验过程,使运算量大大降低。从而为水环境安全评价体系的广泛应用创造了条件。     

Comparing wildlife habitat suitability models based on expert opinion with camera trap detections

Expert knowledge is used in the development of wildlife habitat suitability models (HSMs) for management and conservation decisions. However, the consistency of such models has been questioned. Focusing on 1 method for elicitation, the analytic hierarchy process, we generated expert-based HSMs for 4 felid species: 2 forest specialists (ocelot [Leopardus pardalis] and margay [Leopardus wiedii]) and 2 habitat generalist species (Pampas cat [Leopardus colocola] and puma [Puma concolor]). Using these HSMs, species detections from camera-trap surveys, and generalized linear models, we assessed the effect of study species and expert attributes on the correspondence between expert models and camera-trap detections. We also examined whether aggregation of participant responses and iterative feedback improved model performance. We ran 160 HSMs and found that models for specialist species showed higher correspondence with camera-trap detections (AUC [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve] >0.7) than those for generalists (AUC < 0.7). Model correspondence increased as participant years of experience in the study area increased, but only for the understudied generalist species, Pampas cat (β = 0.024 [SE 0.007]). No other participant attribute was associated with model correspondence. Feedback and revision of models improved model correspondence, and aggregating judgments across multiple participants improved correspondence only for specialist species. The average correspondence of aggregated judgments increased as group size increased but leveled off after 5 experts for all species. Our results suggest that correspondence between expert models and empirical surveys increases as habitat specialization increases. We encourage inclusion of participants knowledgeable of the study area and model validation for expert-based modeling of understudied and generalist species.     

“十二五”以来中国应对气候变化政策和行动评述

基于广泛系统的文献梳理和总结,凝练了“十二五”以来中国应对气候变化政策和行动的现状、特点及成效,并提出针对性建议。主要结论包括:从外部环境看,国际形势对中国应对气候变化事业的推动作用呈现递减态势,之前“以外促内”的国内气候治理特点逐步转化为“内生动力为主”和“内外协调”;从政策制定和执行模式看,“集思广益”“上书模式”持续,“上下互动”“智库支持”的政策学习特点更加明显;从政策体系上看,已经形成相对成熟的符合中国国情的完整体系,推动气候治理能力显著提高;从政策总体特点看,呈现规划主导并引领、行政手段先行市场机制跟进、由点到面有序扩展、环境与气候协同治理、中央和地方互动博弈形成动态平衡、短期内政策成本较高等特点。“十二五”至今,中国应对气候变化政策行动效果明显,提前实现了2020年应对气候变化目标,并在污染治理、经济发展等方面产生广泛协同效应。“十三五”中期以来,中国应对气候变化组织管理机构进行了重大调整,从中央到地方气候政策和行动进入调整阶段。同时,更加强调气候政策和环境政策的协同。展望未来,中国应对气候变化政策和行动应该尽快走出调整期,充分利用新体制的优势,以碳总量控制目标为抓手,坚定推动以全国碳排放权交易为中心、多措互补的政策体系,注重适应行动以应对不断放大的气候风险,继续提高公众对应对气候变化政策的认知度、接受度和参与度,并不断加强技术研发和储备。     

A framework of enabler’s relationship for implementation of green manufacturing in Indian context

This study aims to recognize and select the appropriate strategy for implementing green manufacturing (GM) in Indian manufacturing industry by developing an instrument which could measure the progress of an organization towards the GM philosophy. This study identifies and analyses the key enablers behind the successful achievement of environmental sustainability in Indian manufacturing industry. Based on extensive literature review and discussions with experts, the critical success factors (CSFs) of GM have been identified. After examining the internal consistency of enablers, weightage is identified for finalizing the priority by analytical hierarchical process (AHP). The pairwise comparison method of AHP identified that top management commitment, green procurement practices and societal concern for protection of natural environment art the most important enablers, and competitiveness and availability of clean technology have comparatively less importance for the studied manufacturing industries. The purpose of this paper is to rank the enablers on identified weightage and develop the framework for offering the useful insights and guides about how industries should link CSFs of GM to improve the environmental and operational performance.     

The Impact of Policy and Institutional Environment on Costs and Benefits of Sustainable Agricultural Land Uses: The Case of the Chittagong Hill Tracts,Bangladesh

As in other mountain regions of Asia, agricultural lands in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh are undergoing degradation due primarily to environmentally incompatible land-use systems such as shifting cultivation (jhum) and annual cash crops. The suitable land-use systems such as agroforestry and timber tree plantation provide benefit to the society at large, but they might not provide attractive economic benefits to farmers, eventually constraining a wide-scale adoption of such land-use systems. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate agricultural land-use systems from both societal and private perspectives in the pursuit of promoting particularly environmentally sustainable systems. This article evaluated five major land-use systems being practiced in CHT, namely jhum, annual cash crops, horticulture, agroforestry, and timber plantation. The results of the financial analysis revealed the annual cash crops as the most attractive land use and jhum as the least attractive of the five land-use systems considered under the study. Horticulture, timber plantation, and agroforestry, considered to be suitable land-use systems particularly for mountainous areas, held the middle ground between these two systems. Annual cash crops provided the highest financial return at the cost of a very high rate of soil erosion. When the societal cost of soil erosion is considered, annual cash crops appear to be the most costly land-use system, followed by jhum and horticulture. Although financially less attractive compared to annual cash crops and horticulture, agroforestry and timber plantation are the socially most beneficial land-use systems. Findings of the alternative policy analyses indicate that there is a good prospect for making environmentally sustainable land-use systems, such as agroforestry and timber plantation, attractive for the farmers by eliminating existing legal and institutional barriers, combined with the provision of necessary support services and facilities.

医疗废物安全处理技术优选方法

从医疗废物的产生量、特性和处理要求出发,定性分析了各类处理技术的优缺点和适宜性,并初步筛选出4类可行技术:高温处理法、高压蒸汽灭菌法、微波灭菌法和化学消毒法,结合我国处置现状、经济水平、政策导向和国际趋势等因素,基于AHP方法建立了“4层-13指标-4方案”层次决策模型,对4项处理技术进行了定量评估,并以杭州市医疗废物安全处置项目为例进行验证,其结果显示高温处理法是此项目的最佳选择.对所建立的医疗废物安全处理技术优选方法体系进行了总结.实例研究证明,该体系可为医疗废物安全处理技术选择提供决策支持.     

委托代理理论视角下特种设备安全监管改进研究

针对特种设备数量和种类不断增多与安全监管力量不足问题,首先阐述特种设备安全监管内涵,分析其涉及的委托代理关系;然后基于委托代理理论构建特种设备安全监管委托代理数学模型,并利用激励相容约束条件讨论监管力度、安全投入、公众信任度等因素对特种设备安全监管效果的影响及内在机制;最后提出进一步提高特种设备安全水平的改进策略.结果...