The Biodiversity Crisis and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australia's Forests

If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.     

城乡污染转移的利益悖论及对策研究

污染从城市向农村的转移加剧了农村生态环境问题,已经成为制约农村经济发展的主要瓶颈之一。城乡污染转移是城乡经济主体为实现自身利益相互博弈的结果,本质是一个政治经济学问题。本文利用政治经济学研究方法,分别剖析了城乡家庭、企业和政府的利益诉求及其在污染问题中的行为选择,解释了城乡污染转移的可能性和必然性,在此基础上进一步研究了污染转移所导致的利益悖论,并对悖论形成的深层原因进行挖掘,进而提出城乡污染协同治理的政策建议。研究表明,城乡污染转移表面上看是经济主体利益最大化的理性选择:农村家庭受经济发展水平、信息获取能力和政策影响能力的限制,更注重短期经济利益而忽略长期环境利益;乡镇企业和污染企业对经济利益的追逐加快了城乡污染转移;地方政府为实现当地区域利益所采取的重城市轻乡村战略和政府之间的利益冲突也为污染转移提供了助力。事实上,城乡污染转移违背了经济发展的一般规律,形成污染转移的利益悖论:转移到农村的污染危害农业生产、进而损害城乡人力资本,有悖于长期经济增长;加剧农村生态资源退化、扩大城乡差距,有悖于区域协调发展;污染转移是城市对农村、当代人对后代人环境容量的剥削,有悖于环境的公平。认为:经济主体长期利益和短期利益的矛盾、城乡区域利益和整体利益的冲突以及制度供给不足和制度监管缺位是造成污染转移悖论的深层原因。在此基础上,提出了化解污染转移悖论的对策建议:统筹规划,实现长期利益和短期利益的统一;整合城乡,促进区域利益和整体利益协同;强化制度创新,完善制度供给;完善制度监管,提高执行效率;促进技术创新,减少污染排放。     

The Energy for Growing and Maintaining Cities

Herein we develop a means to differentiate between the energy required to expand and the energy required to maintain the economies of cities. A nonlinear model is tested against historical data for two cities, Hong Kong and Singapore. A robust fit is obtained for Hong Kong, with energy for maintenance close to that for growth, while Singapore, with a weaker fit, is growth dominated. The findings suggest that decreases in either of the per unit maintenance or growth demands can simultaneously cause gross domestic product (GDP) and total energy use to increase. Furthermore, increasing maintenance demands can significantly limit growth in energy demand and GDP. Thus, the low maintenance demands for Hong Kong, and especially Singapore, imply that, all other things being equal, GDP and energy use of these cities will continue to grow, though Singapore’s higher energy use for growth means it will require more energy than Hong Kong.     

当前环境保护若干制度改革情况调研思考

本文是对华东、华南和西南若干开展环境保护制度改革试点工作的省份进行调研后的报告。总体上,各地环境保护相关制度改革工作各有特色,都有当地比较突出的某项制度改革,但没有一个地方把所有制度改革都推进得很好很快。进展有快有慢,力度有大有小,成效有喜有忧。各地对环境保护部相关重点改革方案总体支持、部分存疑,在实施上有所创新,期待指导。总体建议:一是考虑在试点省份开展综合性环保制度改革;二是抓住"牛鼻子"制度加快改革;三是为环保制度改革争取更多的外部条件支持;四是为地方政府提供更多的改革空间;五是国家层面进一步推进相关制度顶层设计工作;六是中央和地方在推进制度改革试点中有所侧重;七是改革要充分吸纳公众意见;八是改革要注意提升基层能力。     

Evaluating institutional fit for the conservation of threatened species

Recovery and conservation of threatened species require adequate institutional responses. We tested an approach to systematically identify and measure how an institutional framework acknowledges threats and required responses for the recovery of endangered species. We measured institutional functional fit with a drivers-pressure-state-impacts-response (DPSIR) model integrated with a quantitative text mining method and qualitative analysis of statutory instruments to examine regulatory responses that support the recovery of 2 endangered species native to Australia, the bridled nailtail wallaby (Onychogalea fraenata) and the Eastern Bristlebird (Dasyornis brachypterus). The key components of the DPSIR model were present in the institutional framework at statutory and operational levels, but some institutional gaps remained in the protection and recovery of the Eastern Bristlebird, including feral predator control, weed control, and grazing management in some locations. However, regulatory frameworks varied in their geographic scope and the application and implementation of many instruments remained optional. Quantitative text mining can be used to quickly navigate a large volume of regulatory documents, but challenges remain in selection of terms, queries of co-occurrence, and interpretation of word frequency counts. To inform policy, we recommend that quantitative assessments of institutional fit be complemented with qualitative analysis and interpreted in light of the sociopolitical and institutional context.     

Prospect theory and energy efficiency

Investments in energy efficiency entail uncertainty, and when faced with uncertainty consumers have been shown to behave according to prospect theory: preferences are reference-dependent and exhibit loss aversion, and probabilities are subjectively weighted. Using data from a choice experiment eliciting prospect theory parameters, I provide evidence that loss-averse people are less likely to invest in energy efficiency. Then, I consider policy design under prospect theory when there are also externalities from energy use. A higher degree of loss aversion implies a higher subsidy to energy efficiency. Numerical simulations suggest that the impact of prospect theory on policy may be substantial.     

水稻中硅元素的分布及存在状态

利用UV-Vis分光光度计、X线分析显微镜及扫描电子显微镜(Scanning electron microscope,SEM)对水稻不同器官中硅元素的含量、分布及存在状态进行观察和分析,研究水稻中硅酸的化学性质,为水稻硅元素的综合利用提供科学依据.结果表明:水稻以可溶性原硅酸的形式吸收土壤中的硅酸,同样以可溶性原硅酸的形式输送到各器官中.不同的生长期,水稻导管液内的可溶性原硅酸的含量不同,成熟期最高可达到912 mg/L(以SiO2表示).通过比较导管汁液和土壤溶液的硅酸浓度可知,水稻选择性地吸收和浓缩硅酸,最高浓缩率可达85倍.X线分析显微镜观察发现,硅酸普遍存在于水稻各器官中,越是坚硬的部位硅酸分布得越多.SEM图像表明,沉积在水稻各器官中的硅胶体具有一定的形状且不溶于强酸.对水稻干燥组分中硅酸含量的分析结果表明,稻壳中硅酸含量最高,达到13.3%,是生产硅单质及碳化硅材料的最有效的资源之一.     

城市建设用地扩张的驱动力——基于省际面板数据的分析

为研究城市建设用地扩张的驱动力,论文利用1999-2008年全国31个省(市、自治区)的数据,使用计量工具分析了城市建设用地扩张与经济发展、城市人口增加和产业结构调整之间的关系,得到以下主要结论:①全国、东部、中部和西部地区城市建设用地扩张速度都很快,东部地区最快,但增长率近年呈现下降趋势,而中部地区和西部地区增长速度相对较慢;②经济发展、城市人口增加和产业结构调整能够非常好地解释全国及东部、中部和西部地区城市建设用地的扩张,3个变量对城市建设用地扩张均有着正影响,但影响力度存在差异;③逐年回归结果表明经济发展、城市人口增加和产业结构调整对城市建设用地的扩张也同样有着正影响,城市人口增加对城市用地扩张的影响基本保持稳定,且力度大于经济发展和产业结构调整的影响,经济发展因素的影响力度越来越大,产业结构调整的影响力度逐渐减弱。     

PROTECTING BEIJLNG'S MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY THROUGH WATERSHED MANAGEMEN AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Watersheds above the Miyun reservoir, a principal source of surface water for Beijing, are designated to be managed for water production, but under the principle of multiple use. Because of the scarcity of arable land, these watersheds cannot be managed only for drinking water. Efforts are under way to reduce sediment delivery, improve the quality of water entering Miyun reservoir, and improve the welfare of watershed inhabitants. An economic appraisal of a watershed management project for the 3,298‐ha Shixia watershed above the Miyun reservoir, indicates a 24 percent economic rate of return on the investment made in the project. The net present value (NPV) of the project, calculated at a discount rate of 10 percent, is approximately US$3.49 million. Sensitivity analyses indicate that a doubling of labor costs lowers the NPV to US$2.07 million and a 10 percent decrease in benefits lowered the NPV to US$2.87. It is concluded that the implementation of conservation practices on the Shixia Demonstration Watershed represent an economically efficient use of resources.     

基于SWOT法和层次分析法的能源发展战略研究

针对能源发展战略分析中缺少定量分析的不足,将SWOT法与层次分析法结合起来建立一个完整的定性与定量分析相结合的系统框架,分析影响能源发展的关键因素并计算各因素权重,在此基础上确定能源发展战略,并以厦门市为例,进行案例分析.结果表明:在众多因素中,单位GDP能耗低、能源资源稀缺、能源进口关税不断下调、能源消费不断增长等是...