地区环境保护情况综合评价方法及实证研究

采用层次分析法对地区环境保护情况进行了综合评价。以地区环境保护情况的各项指标值为依据，可对各地区的环境保护情况进行比较、分析、评价。最后用线性加权综合法和非线性加权综合法分别对我国31个省、直辖市2003年环境保护情况进行了综合评价与对比分析。     

Integrated Freshwater Solutions — A New Zealand Application of Mediated Modeling

Mediated Modeling (MM) refers to “model building with stakeholders,” enabling collaborative learning and decision support. This article presents results from the Integrated Freshwater Solutions (IFS — www.ifs.org.nz ) action research project in the Manawatū River watershed, New Zealand. Water quality in the watershed often rates poorly, with the key issues being sedimentation, eutrophication, and habitat destruction. IFS is to develop and test MM to support collaborative and adaptive freshwater management. The project team was presented with the opportunity to collaborate with the Manawatū River Leaders' Forum (MRLF), an initiative driven by the Regional Council to improve water quality. This article describes the process of MM and how it was adapted to meet the needs of MRLF stakeholders. This highlights some important conditions for collaborative and adaptive capacity building. The MM/MRLF stakeholders, represented: industry, farming, local and regional authorities, environmental groups, and indigenous Māori iwi/hapū (tribe/sub‐tribe). This article describes how MM assisted early in the collaborative process to develop the following: (1) a shared and more integrated understanding of causes and effects and (2) a sense of the order of magnitude of the problems and the impact proposed solutions might have. It also describes how the context of politics, time, and resource constraints played an important role reverting to a more traditional planning approach part way through the process.     

甘肃省"资源-环境-经济系统"动态仿真研究

立足于生态经济理论,利用系统模型方法。构建了对有关区域发展政策的可能结果进行动态仿真的模拟实验室。对甘肃省“资源-环境-经济”系统运行规律进行探索和实证研究。旨在描述甘肃省“资源-环境-经济系统”可能的运行情景。为甘肃省的可持续发展决策提供参考。模型运行的结果表明：甘肃省目前的发展模式是不可持续的；技术对自然资源表现为弱可替代性；转变经济发展模式是实现甘肃省可持续发展的唯一途径。     

自然资源可持续利用的制度安排探析

影响自然资源可持续利用的诸多因素中，制度因素是最关键的。合理的制度安排及符合自然资源特点和属性的制度创新是解决市场失灵、政府失灵导致自然资源破坏、重要途径。     

江西省城市化发展与土地利用研究

土地是人类社会赖以生存与发展的重要的自然资源之一。城市化作为当今世界的重要的社会经济现象。是对土地利用目标能否实现构成关键性影响的因素之一。拟从城市化发展角度出发。研究江西省的城市化发展与土地利用之间的内在联系。发现与分析存在的问题。提出解决城市化进程中土地利用的对策。     

军机飞行安全预警的集对分析-可变模糊方法

为了深化军机飞行安全管理,需开展飞行安全预警工作,而安全预警方法是影响军机飞行安全预警结果是否合理可靠的关键因素。从"人、机、环境、组织因素"4个方面构建了军机飞行安全预警的指标体系;用集对分析方法中综合联系度代替可变模糊集方法中的相对差异度,提出了飞行安全预警的集对分析-可变模糊方法。运用集对分析-可变模糊方法对4个样本进行预警分析,并将其结果与模糊综合评价和灰色综合评价的预警结果进行对比分析。3种方法对样本2、3、4的预警结果一致,而对样本1集对分析-可变模糊方法的预警结果为Ⅲ级,模糊综合评价法和灰色综合评价法的预警结果为Ⅱ级。通过分析可知,样本1的综合安全状态倾向于Ⅲ级。结果表明,集对分析-可变模糊方法的结果更为合理,方法是可行的、有效的。     

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.     

Does More Storage Give California More Water?

Increasing reservoir storage is commonly proposed to mitigate increasing water demand and provide drought reserves, especially in semiarid regions such as California. This paper examines the value of expanding surface reservoir capacity in California using hydroeconomic modeling for historical conditions, a future warm‐dry climate, and California's recently adopted policy to end groundwater overdraft. Results show expanding surface storage capacity rarely provides sizable economic value in most of California. On average, expanding facilities north of California's Delta provides some benefit in 92% of 82 years modeled under historical conditions and in 61% of years modeled in a warm‐dry climate. South of California's Delta, expanding storage capacity provides no benefits in 14% of years modeled under historical conditions and 99% of years modeled with a warm‐dry climate. Results vary across facilities between and within regions. The limited benefit of surface storage capacity expansion to statewide water supply should be considered in planning California's water infrastructure.     

Economic performance and carbon intensity of human well-being: empirical evidence from the MENA region

Our paper explores the effect of economic performance variables on the carbon intensity of human well-being (CIWB) for 13 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period (1995–2013). We use a time-series cross-sectional Prais–Winsten regression model with panel-corrected standard errors (PCSEs). We find that economic performance has a statistically significant positive influence on CIWB over the period in question; thus, economic performance harms the environment, but the final effect deviates to a constant level after a while. This finding is not encouraging from the economic sustainability point of view. On the contrary, we find that total health expenditure has a statistically significant negative impact on CIWB by increasing life expectancy, which means less stress on the environment.