COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: While the correlation coefficient and standard error of estimate are frequently used when comparing models of seasonal water yield, the following criteria may be more important in selecting one model from among several alternatives: rationality of the regression coefficients, the distribution of the residual errors, and the correctness of indicators of the relative importance of the predictor variables. These criteria were used to compare seasonal water yield models that were calibrated using multiple regression, stepwise regression, principal components regression, polynomial regression using a principal components rotation, and constrained pattern search. Hydrologic data from the Upper Sevier River basin in southern Utah were used to illustrate the comparative analysis process. The prediction equations used the April-July streamflow volume as the criterion variable.     

半结构决策方法在松花江蓄洪区选址问题中的研究

研究松花江蓄洪区选址问题的决策方法.松花江蓄滞洪区选址问题涉及诸多定性指标和定量指标,属于半结构决策问题.本文综合层次分析法和模糊优选法,提出求解这类问题的一种半结构决策方法.基本方法是:将评价指标分为定性指标和定量指标;对于定性应用层次分析法,求其评价矩阵;对于定量指标应用相对隶属度方法,求其评价矩阵;二者合成得到全体指标的评价矩阵;最后利用模糊优选法求得最优决策.应用该方法于松花江流域蓄滞洪区的方案选择中.     

TA-FTIR/MS用于硝酸铵及其混合物的热化学行为研究

为评价物料混合对危险化学品热化学行为的影响,采用热分析-红外/质谱联用技术(TA-FTIR/MS)研究硝酸铵、柠檬酸和蔗糖的混合物的热化学行为。通过对硝酸铵及其混合物的分解温度和分解过程中逸出气体的分析,发现硝酸铵、柠檬酸和蔗糖的混合物热分解温度分别降低至135℃和153℃,而硝酸铵与甲基纤维素的混合物分解温度与硝酸铵基本相同为201℃,且各混合体系的气相分解产物均有氮氧化物(NOX),H2O和CO2。结果表明,混合物受热后其中的硝酸铵首先分解为硝酸和氨气;酸性物质和还原性物质由于对硝酸的分解反应有催化作用,使得混合物的热稳定性下降。     

不同物质对铬价态测定结果的影响

采用单波长法和双波长法,分别考察了KH2PO4、H3PO4、H2SO4、KNO3、牛肉膏和蛋白胨对Cr(III)和Cr(VI)质量浓度测定的影响。结果显示,Cr(III)和Cr(VI)在测量中是相互影响的,并且Cr(III)对Cr(VI)影响较显著。在单波长法测定中,牛肉膏、蛋白胨及2种酸对Cr(III)和Cr(VI)的影响较钾盐对其影响更为显著,H3PO4和H2SO4对Cr(III)和Cr(VI)的特征吸收峰值影响最大,降低幅度在20%～50%。这些物质对双波长法测定Cr(VI)几乎没有影响;但对Cr(III)测定中,H2SO4和H3PO4的影响较大,其相对误差分别为14.57%和8.87%,其余物质产生的相对误差均小于1.6%。因此,双波长法可用于生物样品中Cr(III)和Cr(VI)的测定,线性范围分别为0～160 mg/L和0～80mg/L。     

Investigation on the interaction between triclosan and bovine serum albumin by spectroscopic methods

Abstract

Multi-spectroscopic and molecular docking methods were used to study the interaction between triclosan (TCS) and bovine serum albumin (BSA). The results indicated that the fluorescence quenching of BSA by TCS was due to the formation of TCS–BSA complex through static quenching. This result was also demonstrated by time-resolved fluorescence experiment. The binding constants and number of binding sites between TCS and BSA were 1.30?×?10⁵ M^?1 and 1.17 at 298?K, respectively. The thermodynamic parameters were studied in detail which suggested that hydrophobic forces and hydrogen bond played major roles in the TCS–BSA interaction. Moreover, the site marker competitive experiments and docking studies revealed that TCS could bind BSA into site I in subdomain IIA. All the results of UV–vis spectrophotometry, circular dichroism spectroscopy and synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy showed that interaction between TCS and BSA induced conformation changes of BSA.     

THOR dummy chest deflection response in oblique and lateral far-side sled tests

Abstract

Objective: The focus of this study is side impact. Though occupant injury assessment and protection in nearside impacts has received considerable attention and safety standards have been promulgated, field studies show that a majority of far-side occupant injuries are focused on the head and thorax. The 50th percentile male Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR) has been used in oblique and lateral far-side impact sled tests, and regional body accelerations and forces and moments recorded by load cells have been previously reported. The aim of this study is to evaluate the chestband-based deflection responses from these tests.

Methods: The 3-point belt–restrained 50th percentile male THOR dummy was seated upright in a buck consisting of a rigid flat seat, simulated center console, dashboard, far-side side door structure, and armrest. It was designed to conduct pure lateral and oblique impacts. The center console, dashboard, simulated door structure, and armrest were covered with energy-absorbing materials. A center-mounted airbag was mounted to the right side of the seat. Two 59-gage chestbands were routed on the circumference of the thorax, with the upper and lower chestbands at the level of the third and sixth ribs, respectively, following the rib geometry. Oblique and pure lateral far-side impact tests with and without airbags were conducted at 8.3 m/s. Maximum chest deflections were computed by processing temporal contours using custom software and 3 methods: Procedures paralleling human cadaver studies, using the actual anchor point location and actual alignment of the InfraRed Telescoping Rods for the Assessment of Chest Compression (IR-TRACC) in the dummy on each aspect—that is, right or left,—and using the same anchor location of the internal sensor but determining the location of the peak chest deflection on the contour confined to the aspect of the sensor; these were termed the SD, ID, and TD metrics, respectively.

Results: All deformation contours at the upper and lower thorax levels and associated peak deflections are given for all tests. Briefly, the ID metrics were the lowest in magnitude for both pure lateral and oblique modes, regardless of the presence or absence of an airbag. This was followed by the TD metric, and the SD metric produced the greatest deflections.

Conclusion: The chestbands provide a unique opportunity to compute peak deflections that parallel current IR-TRACC-type deflections and allow computation of peak deflections independent of the initial point of attachment to the rib. The differing locations of the peak deflection vectors along the rib contours for different test conditions suggest that a priori attachment is less effective. Further, varying magnitudes of the differences between ID and TD metrics underscore the difficulty in extrapolating ID outputs under different conditions: Pure lateral versus oblique, airbag presence, and thoracic levels. Deflection measurements should, therefore, not be limited to an instrument that can only track from a fixed point. For improved predictions, these results suggest the need to investigate alternative techniques, such as optical methods to improve chest deflection measurements for far-side occupant injury assessment and mitigation.     

顶板含水层防水试验的钻孔单位涌水量计算方法

为了实现利用井下放水试验获取顶板含水层的钻孔单位涌水量,采用抽水试验中的地下水动力学计算公式,结合观测孔的水位降深,给出了放水孔水位降深的计算方法;利用观测孔水位降深和观测孔与放水孔之间距离的对数曲线图,提出了放水孔水位降深的图解法;对于承压含水层,基于钻孔单位涌水量与含水层渗透系数之间的线性相关关系,可以通过含水层的渗透系数获取钻孔单位涌水量;通过实例分析,解析法和图解法计算得到的放水孔单位涌水量相近,结合现场放水试验情况,分析了放水孔单位涌水量的可靠性,并对3种方法的适用条件进行了讨论。研究结果表明:利用放水试验获取的放水孔单位涌水量符合实际情况,可以作为含水层富水性评价和矿井水文地质条件分析的依据。     

持续提高黄土高原植被水土保持功能的配套技术(Ⅱ)造林与经营配套技术

阐明了能使防护林体系水土保持功能达到持续和稳定提高的造林和经营配套技术     

环境分析化学发展战略研究

环境分析化学是环境化学的一个重要分支.本文报导环境分析化学的研究领域,对象,国内外研究工作的发展趋势以及环境分析方法和环境监测仪器等。近年来,在污染物的超痕量分析、环境标准参考物的制备以及环境分析监测技术自动化方面都有较大的进展,对推动研究污染物的来源、毒性和含量,为最终控制和改造环境起到了推动作用,环境科学的发展在一定程度上依赖于环境分析化学所取得的成就。 在研究国内外工作动向的基础上,我们提出了环境分析化学的中近期研究方向,其中包括有机污染物和元素化学形态定值的环境标准参考物质、无机毒物的形态分析、分析技术的联用,有毒污染物的系统分析、我国优先监测污染物名单的制定、新型采样器,以及监测技术自动化研究等方面,以供从事这方面工作的领导和科研人员参考。     

黄土高原沟坡地土地生产力评价的指标体系与评价方法

通过对渭北黄土高原地区沟坡地土壤理化性质的分析和对当地社会经济状况的调查研究,应用层次分析法对沟坡地土地自然生产力和现实生产力进行了分析和评价.在分析过程中,把当地主要造林树种根系垂直分布特征及其根系抗旱性特性纳入了分析评价体系.结果表明,嘴头村和西坡村不同树种沟坡地上刺槐(Robinia pseudoacacia)的自然生产力属于中等稍微偏上水平,而山杏(Prunus armeniacia var. ansu)、油松(Pinus tabulaeformis)和侧柏(Platycladus orientalis)的自然生产力水平则较低.两地沟坡地上的现实生产力计算结果则证明刺槐和山杏两个树种表现出了较高的水平,具有较好的发展前途;而油松和侧柏的现实生产力水平则较低,其发展推广受到了限制.群众对沟坡开发治理的态度和对开发方案的认可对沟坡开发的成功起到了重要作用.