热污染及其防治

对热污染状况进行了介绍.概括了热污染的危害,包括危害人体健康、影响全球气候变化、污染大气、污染水体、加快水分蒸发、增加能量消耗等.分析了热污染的原因,自然气候的异常变化和人为因素是热污染产生的两大原因.最后提出了几点防治热污染的措施.     

Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles

We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast.     

向海湿地河道上下游土壤重金属污染程度分析

以向海湿地河道上、下游土壤沉积物为研究对象，以Al元素作为标准化元素，通过对重金属元素富集因子的分析，研究了Cu、Ni、Mn、Fe、Ba、Cr等6种重金属元素的人为污染状况及分级。结果表明，该区土壤沉积物中重金属元素均受到不同程度的人为污染影响，部分层面Ni、Ba等重金属元素污染程度达到显著水平，造成这种现象的主要原因是富含重金属的霍林河上游矿源物质的沉积及人类对湿地开发活动的历史变迁过程；此外，径流淹没频率不同造成了两断面土壤沉积类型和沉积效果的不同，使得受水文影响较大的上游断面的人为污染程度大于受影响较小的下游断面，说明向海湿地对人为污染具有一定的缓冲能力，或向海湿地具有较强的净化和过滤功能。     

Effects of Climate and Land-Use Change on Species Abundance in a Central European Bird Community

Abstract:  Although it is known that changes in land use and climate have an impact on ecological communities, it is unclear which of these factors is currently most important. We sought to determine the influence of land-use and climate alteration on changes in the abundance of Central European birds. We examined the impact of these factors by contrasting abundance changes of birds of different breeding habitat, latitudinal distribution, and migratory behavior. We examined data from the semiquantitative Breeding Bird Atlas of Lake Constance, which borders Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Changes in the regional abundance of the 159 coexisting bird species from 1980–1981 to 2000–2002 were influenced by all three factors. Farmland birds, species with northerly ranges, and long-distance migrants declined, and wetland birds and species with southerly ranges increased in abundance. A separate analysis of the two decades between 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 and between 1990–1992 and 2000–2002 showed that the impact of climate change increased significantly over time. Latitudinal distribution was not significant in the first decade and became the most significant predictor of abundance changes in the second decade. Although the spatial scale and temporal resolution of our study is limited, this is the first study that suggests that climate change has overtaken land-use modification in determining population trends of Central European birds.     

Effects of Widespread Fish Introductions on Paedomorphic Newts in Europe

Abstract:  As a result of factors such as global warming, habitat destruction, and species introduction, amphibians are declining worldwide. No one, however, has analyzed the status of polymorphic amphibian species at a national or continental scale, although some local reports exist. Our aim was to report on the loss of intraspecific heterochrony as a loss to diversity in determining the consequences of fish stocking on European populations of paedomorphic newts. Paedomorphosis is a polymorphism in which larval traits are retained in the adult stage. We surveyed 39 paedomorphic populations of the alpine (  Triturus alpestris ) and palmate ( T. helveticus ) newts, all but one of which initially occupied fishless ponds and lakes in France, Italy, Slovenia, Bosnia, Montenegro, and Greece. Exotic fishes were found in 44% of the studied aquatic habitats, with a 100% presence in Montenegro. At all sites paedomorphs disappeared and metamorphs declined. Only fish explained these population changes because alternative factors such as drying were not significant. More catastrophically, fish introductions occurred in habitats known to support the largest populations of newts and even some endemic subspecies. If management and legislative measures are not taken to stop fish stocking, protect paedomorphs as conservation units at national and international levels, and restore natural habitats, all the largest paedomorphic populations may disappear in the near future. Their disappearance would represent a loss of one of the rare, fascinating examples of intraspecific heterochrony.     

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

糖蜜酒精废水厌氧可生化性实验研究

采用自制的球形反应器对糖蜜酒精废水进行厌氧可生化性研究.实验持续了40 d,CODcr从38 652 mg·L-1下降到6 094 mg·L-1,总去除率达84.23%.说明糖蜜酒精废水的厌氧可生化性较好;硫酸盐浓度由最初的3 860 mg·L-1下降到470 mg·L-1,去除率为87.82%.同时,有机污染物的去除高峰期比其硫酸盐延迟了2～4 d,说明可以通过控制运行反应条件和参数,对该废水采用两相厌氧处理工艺,在产酸相提前去除大部分的硫酸盐,减弱高浓度硫酸盐对厌氧反应的抑制作用.     

1951~2014年中国北方地区气温突变与变暖停滞的时空变异性

基于1951~2014年中国北方及周边地区357个气象站点平均最低气温、平均气温和平均最高气温年（月）数据,采用M~K检验等方法,分析了中国北方地区3类气温突变和变暖停滞特征的时空变异性.结果表明：研究区3类气温整体突变年（1978~1999年、1981~2002年、1981~2005年）、分布广泛的普遍突变年（1988年、1989年、1997年）及范围（3a）均依次变晚.整体上,突变年随纬度降低变晚,东北突变早于西北和华北地区.变暖停滞集中于1998和2007年及其前后,3类气温亦依次变晚（1994~2007年、1995~2009年、1998~2010年）,由黄河流域中段向其他方向越来越晚.突变至变暖停滞周期整体随纬度降低缩短（3~30a）,突变越早周期越长.西北地区突变与变暖停滞前后各时段均值温差最大（2.4℃）,温差在1℃左右站点分布最广泛.各时段升（降）温速率整体依次在0.01℃/10a、0.05℃/10a、-0.03℃/10a左右站点分布最广泛,突变后升温最快（0.02~0.16℃/10a）,且西北地区对升温贡献最大,变暖停滞后东北地区对降温贡献最大,2时段按平均最低气温、平均最高气温、平均气温顺序升（降）温速率递减.3类气温波动程度减弱,整体随纬度降低.高纬度、高海拔和山地地区突变和变暖停滞较周边地区偏早或偏晚,特征值较大.整个北方地区3类气温突变、变暖停滞、突变与变暖停滞时间及各时段特征值各自具有自身一致性的普遍规律.     

模拟升温对冰川前缘地微生物种群的影响

由于全球变暖影响,冰川处于不断退缩状态.本研究以天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川前缘地3个不同退缩年代的土样为研究对象,设置2个温度处理,分别为5℃与15℃,通过150d室内培养实验,探讨升温对冰川前缘地微生物种群的影响.结果表明,在原始样品中,随土壤样品退缩年代的增加,土壤总碳氮含量增加,微生物的数量及α多样性增加. 150d培养实验结果表明:细菌、古菌拷贝数随升温发生变化,但改变未达显著水平.此外,升温改变微生物群落结构,且对不同样点微生物群落结构影响不同.通过对升温后变化显著的优势OTUs进行分析,退缩年代较短的样点对升温响应更为明显,主要表现为Thiobacillus属相对丰度的升高.结果表明,冰川前缘地微生物对变暖响应的土壤异质性,其结果可为高山冰川地区升温下微生物的特征变化提供参考信息.     

基于CMIP5多模式集合预估东海和南海21世纪海平面高度变化

人类活动引起的当代气候变暖已导致全球海平面显著上升,在21世纪全球气候继续变暖的背景下,东南沿海海平面的升高将对区域环境及社会可持续发展带来巨大挑战,但目前对未来区域海平面变化的预估尚存在较大的不确定性。本文基于筛选的国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）的10个模拟性能较好的气候模式输出结果,通过多模式集合预估了未来温室气体三种排放情景下21世纪东海和南海区域海平面高度的趋势变化,并分析了不同影响因子的贡献。通过计算海水热比容、盐比容和动力因子对海平面高度的影响,并在考虑冰川冰盖消融等因子的订正后,发现：21世纪东海和南海海平面高度都呈现连续上升趋势,东海和南海地区上升幅度略小于全球平均,南海上升幅度略大于东海。在温室气体低（RCP2.6）、中（RCP4.5）和高（RCP8.5）排放情景下,21世纪后期（2081—2100年）较前期（2006—2025年）东海/南海平均海平面分别上升0.26 [0.01—0.55] m/0.29 [0.05—0.55] m、0.38 [0.10—0.66] m/0.40 [0.14—0.67] m和0.52[0.15—0.89] m/0.52[0.23—0.83] m（方括号内为相应的不确定性范围）。随着温室气体排放的升高,海平面上升幅度也增大,东海海平面上升区由东南向西北扩展,南海海平面上升区由东北向西南扩展。统计分析还表明：在不同排放情景下,不同影响因子对海平面变化的贡献也不一样,随着排放强度从低到高变化,海洋比容加动力因子的相对贡献从28%—34%升高至46%—47%,而冰川冰盖消融等其他因子的相对贡献从 66%—72%降低至53%—54%。