DRYING UP OF THE YELLOW RIVER:A RESPONSE TO GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE

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中国地区人为热分布特征研究

利用中国统计年鉴中全国各省份的非再生能源消费资料和2.5min×2.5min分辨率的人口格点数据,对中国地区人为热排放的时空分布进行研究,讨论了其分布特征和影响因素.结果表明,中国地区人为热通量随时间持续增长,特别是在2000年后增长加速,1985年到2000年从0.09W/m2增长到0.16W/m2,而到2013年已经增长到0.38W/m2.中国地区的人为热排放具有显著的地域特征,在华北、华东和华南,由于人口密度大、经济发达,人为热的污染很严重;在华中地区,人为热污染较严重的区域主要分布在以武汉为中心的经济圈;在东北地区,以大连、沈阳、长春和哈尔滨为中心的城市区域人为热污染也较为严重;而在西北和西南的大部分地区,人为热排放量很小,仅在以成都、重庆为中心的区域较大.历年来全国年均人为热的最大值都出现在上海,其中2010年最大,为113.5W/m2,上海人为热排放的年均值增长明显,可达到0.6W/m2/a.随着城市化进程的加快,人为热的排放愈来愈强,热污染对城市和区域的气候以及空气污染的影响也会越来越重要.     

Metals contamination in the foraging area of Milky Stork: evidence of anthropogenic inputs in the aquatic environment of Kuala Gula,Malaysia

The rapid decline of the wild Milky Stork population in Malaysia has led to the reintroduction of the captive bred species in Kuala Gula, Perak. The area is known as an important migratory stopover and sanctuary for both visitors and resident birds. Although Kuala Gula and its adjacent areas are regarded as pristine and unpolluted, recent study suggested that accumulation of certain pollutants is occurring in the aquatic environment of the area. Surface sediment samples from five foraging areas considered important to the reintroduced Milky Storks have been analyzed for metals contamination. The results show that elevations of Cu, Zn, and Pb ranging from 9.7 to 57 mg kg^?1, 71 to 120 mg kg^?1, and 28 to 47 mg kg^?1 have occurred, except for Cd (0.9–1.7 mg kg^?1). The accumulation of these metals is site-specific which reflects continuous anthropogenic inputs into the aquatic environment of Kuala Gula. In addition, metal levels in some areas have exceeded the effects range low values, and thus urgent action is needed to ensure good practice and sustainable management of Kuala Gula by responsible parties.     

Heavy metals contamination in mudflat and mangrove sediments (Mumbai,India)

The focus of this study, carried out on mudflat and mangrove sediments of Ulhas Estuary and Thane Creek in Mumbai, India, documents how sediment analysis in different ecosystems can help in understanding metal behaviour and pollution status of the region. Based on the the geoaccumulation index (I _geo ), the study shows that the estuarine and creek regions, being recipients of industrial and domestic wastes, display moderate pollution. Ulhas Estuary with higher clay and organic matter contents, exhibits higher amounts of metals than Thane Creek. Furthermore, using correlation and cluster analyses, the creek projects stable subenvironments with similar types of metal associations, with Fe and total organic carbon as the dominant metal carriers. By contrast, in the estuarine subenvironments, the metal associations do not reveal any distinct trend, which may be attributed to the disturbance caused by dredging activities routinely carried out in the region. Factor analysis carried out on I _geo data in both regions further helped in identifying polluted metal groups.     

Natural and Anthropogenic Effects On Phytoplankton Primary Productivity in Mangroves

Abstract

Spatial and temporal variations and the factors influencing primary production have been studied in three different mangrove waters (Pichavaram, Ennore Creek and Adyar Estuary) of South India characterised by different anthropogenic impacts. the gross primary productivity in the unpolluted Pichavaram mangrove was 113 g Cm^?2yr^?1 exhibiting natural variability with the environmental forcing factors. Human activities have elevated primary productivity in the Ennore Creek mangrove (157g Cm^?2yr^?1) primarily through the direct discharge of fertilizer effluents. By contrast, a combination of domestic and industrial effluent discharges into the Adyar Estuary mangrove has considerably reduced phytoplankton primary productivity 83g Cm^?2yr^?1 the Redfield N: P ratio varies from 0.96 N: 1P at Ennore Creek, 1.75N: 1P at Adyar Estuary to 15.2 N: 1P at Pichavaram mangroves. This suggests that the Pichavaram mangroves represent a well equilibrated ecosystem with N: P ratio close to steady-state values in contrast to the anthropogenically altered mangrove ecosystems studied. Results show a significant temporal variability in nutrient concentration in the three mangrove areas. Distinct differences in nutrient concentrations between the dry and the wet seasons have been observed.     

1961—2010年广西气温变化对全球变暖的响应

利用广西88 个气象站1961—2010 年的年平均气温和年极端最高、最低气温数据,运用GIS 技术、气候倾向率以及Mann-Kendall 突变检验方法对广西近50 a 气温的时空变化特征及突变特征进行分析。结果表明:在全球变暖影响下, 近50 a 广西全区年平均气温和年极端最高、最低气温总体上均呈上升趋势,其中年平均气温和年极端最低气温的气候倾向率均达到了极显著水平;年平均气温和年极端最高气温的突变时间分别为2001 年和2003 年,均比极端最低气温(1984 年) 晚了近20 a 左右;年极端最高和最低气温存在非对称变化。时空分布图表明,区域平均值忽略了研究区域内的差异,尽管近50 a 来广西气温区域平均值的总体变化呈上升趋势,但不同时期各地区间气温变化的趋势和幅度各有差异。     

人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响研究进展

人类活动对流域旱涝事件具有决定性影响,已经成为国内外热点研究问题之一。通过系统分析国内外人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响机理的研究,结果表明:人类活动导致大气温室气体和气溶胶含量上升,全球气候变化加剧,导致流域极端水文过程时空格局改变。另一方面,人类活动引起的土地退化将影响流域水资源时空分布和水循环过程,削弱流域防洪抗旱能力;水利工程的修建将增大流域储水状况,有效应对流域旱涝事件,但同时存在加剧流域旱涝事件的风险。此外,论文还概述了人类活动对流域旱涝事件影响的量化方法。     

Mitigating the Davos dilemma: towards a global self-sustainability index

The ‘Davos dilemma’ posits a sustainability crisis, provoked by rising human population and intense competitive behaviours, in terms of control and access to depleting natural resources. More broadly understood as an ecological problem, rather than just socio-economic behavioural deficiencies, the call is for better integrated social, natural and business-indexed reporting within planetary boundaries. This poses challenges for nationally governed societies to equitably account for self-sustainability performance, in enabling their successive government agendas to re-orientate policies and industry investments as innovation towards achieving this in the longer term. We propose and test a global self-sustainability index for countries across four metrics: economic, environmental, social and innovation. Our tentative findings from a cross-country analysis of 27 countries during 2007–2010 illustrate the approach for wider systematic analysis and as a basis for future large-scale assessments on self-sustainability within and between countries.     

重庆大气汞人为排放及其预测

利用排放因子法和灰色预测法对重庆大气汞人为排放进行了研究. 重庆大气汞人为排放量从1997年的6.18 t增加到2008年的13.47 t. 重庆自1997年成为直辖市以来,大气汞排放量累计达99.76 t,年均增长率为9.82%,其中燃煤和水泥生产汞排放量分别达58.34和22.37 t. 以1997─2008年重庆大气汞人为排放数据为依据,运用灰色系统理论建立GM(1,1)大气汞人为排放预测模型,预测了2009─2015年重庆大气汞排放趋势. 如果不采取控制措施,预计2015年重庆大气汞人为排放量约30.92 t,年均增长率将高达16.20%.      

Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series

Global warming is the observed increase of the average temperature of the Earth. The primary cause of this phenomenon is the release of the greenhouse gases by burning of fossil fuels, land cleaning, agriculture, among others, leading to the increase of the so-called greenhouse effect. An approach to deal with this important problem is the time series analysis. In this regard, different techniques can be applied to evaluate the global warming dynamics. This kind of analysis allows one to make better predictions increasing our comprehension of the phenomenon. This article applies nonlinear tools to analyze temperature time series establishing state space reconstruction and prediction. Since noise contamination is unavoidable in data acquisition, it is important to employ robust techniques. The method of delay coordinates is employed for state space reconstruction and delay parameters are evaluated using the method of average mutual information and the method of false nearest neighbors. Afterwards, the simple nonlinear prediction method is employed to estimate temperatures of the future. Temperature time series from different places of the planet are used. Initially, the approach is verified considering known parts of the time series and afterwards, results are extrapolated for future values estimating temperature until 2028. Results show that these techniques are interesting to estimate temperature time history, presenting coherent estimations.